Weekend wagers: A handful of bets to make on seven different sports

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Aug. 5, 2023 | 2 a.m.

The United States women’s national soccer team’s bid at a historic third consecutive World Cup victory is not off to a great start in Oceania.

The squad barely squeaked past a group stage it was supposed to dominate through, and has now seen its odds to win the tournament double despite the field being cut in half. The U.S. started the event most commonly at a +220 (i.e. risking $100 to win $220) in the futures market, but now sits at +440 at Circa Sports ahead of its first knockout stage match at 2 a.m. Sunday morning against Sweden.

In other words, I put in a bad bet last month when I backed the U.S. at around the opening price. It may still win, but that clearly wasn’t the right time to enter the market with such a more valuable price now available.

The U.S. is no longer the favorite, sitting behind England at 3-to-1 and barely in front of Spain at +455. France (+690), Japan (+750) and Australia (+1050) are seen as the other primary contenders.  

France is available at as high as +750 locally, at Caesars/William Hill, and would be my bet if I had to place a future now. But I’d rather ride out my initial position.

Maybe the U.S. can find form and bail me out of the gaffe. I’ll have a bet on USA vs. Sweden to cap this hyper-current version of Weekend Wagers.

There won’t be any long-term future-betting miscues this time around because, for one week in the column, I’m not making any future plays.   

Read on for this week’s bets. Odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas at publication time with the sports book noted. Plays outside the column will be linked and tracked in the record at the bottom of the page.

Golf (3-9-1, -$760): Brendon Todd -105 head-to-head vs. Stephan Jaeger in third round of Wyndham Championship (BetMGM)

$210 to win $200

Sedgefield Country Club where this week's tournament is held in Greensboro, N.C., was practically made for the veteran Todd, one of the most accurate drivers and best putters on the PGA Tour. Most weeks, his very particular skillset and relative weakness elsewhere is only good enough to lead him into the middle of the pack. But at Sedgefield, it's enough for him to be in contention. He's two strokes off the lead, held by fellow Georgia Bulldog Russell Henley, through two rounds this weekend and should be a factor going forward. Jaeger seems more likely to tail off as he's not quite as skilled at finding fairways as Todd. This will be a close matchup, but Todd should be priced more in the -120 range.

Golf (3-9-1, -$760): Joaquin Niemann to win LIV Greenbrier at 12-to-1 (SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas)

$100 to win $1,200

Golf bets in the Weekend Wagers have been slumping ever since cashing on Dustin Johnson to win LIV: Tulsa. So let's go back to the controversial, soon-to-be-PGA-merged tour backed by the Saudis in hopes of getting back on track. Niemann was in total control during Friday's first round for much of the day before tailing off at the end. He now sits four strokes off the lead but should be a factor. Niemann has been playing to well not to have a single victory on the LIV Tour so far. Small lapses like the one late in Friday's round have consistently held him back but they feel random more than anything. He's going to put it all together soon and, much like Todd at Sedgefield, Niemann's skillset is a match with the driving power and approach precision required at Greenbrier.

MLB (11-4, $1,660): St. Louis Cardinals -200 vs. Colorado Rockies (Wynn)

$400 to win $200

Value is value is value. A lot of people won’t want to touch this game because the odds are too high, but setting arbitrary limits on how high of a price you’re willing to lay is a losing mentality. There’s nothing wrong with laying -200 if you think the true price is closer to -250. I think the true price here is closer to -250. Cardinals starter Steven Matz has looked improved lately, and there’s never been any question that the underperforming preseason National League Central favorites can hit. The Rockies are a disaster and today’s journeyman starter, Ty Blach, isn’t going to help them out of it. St. Louis should roll.   

UFC (14-18, -$284): Dennis Buzukja +160 vs. Sean Woodson at UFC Nashville (South Point)

$150 to win $240

Anecdotally, it feels like fighters are finding more success after taking bouts on short notice recently. What once seemed like a death knell in mixed martial now doesn’t appear to be as large of a handicap in this age of improved, and more consistent, training. Buzukja could be the latest last-minute fighter to contribute to the trend. He only took this bout a few days ago but hails from one of the sport’s top camps, Longo and Weidman MMA, and looks pretty evenly-matched with Woodson, who himself hasn’t fought in nearly a year, on paper. Buzukja is no guarantee to win, but getting +160 on what should be a coin-flip fight is a tremendous deal.

UFC (14-18, -$284): Cory Sandhagen by KO/TKO/DQ +180 vs. Rob Font (Circa Sports)

$150 to win $270

And now I contradict the short-notice theory. Diminished preparation time a lot tougher obstacle to overcome in Font’s case. The veteran is being asked to fight two more rounds and go up against a fighter with a much larger skill edge in Sandhagen on two week’s notice. This shouldn’t end well. The moneyline price of Sandhagen -335 seems about right, but the odds on him to earn the knockout shouldn’t be this high. He’s an extremely dangerous striker, and Font may not be as durable as he was once in his career at 36 years old. This might not have been a bet in a three-round fight, but giving Sandhagen 10 extra minutes of opportunity should be worth more on the betting line.

Boxing (0-2, -$560): Jake Paul by KO/TKO/DQ -125 vs. Nate Diaz (SuperBook)

$250 to win $200

I’ve usually resisted getting involved in the side-show boxing matches involving the Paul brothers, but this particular one offers too strong of an opportunity at the betting counter. The 26-year-old Paul has at least proven himself to be skilled in the sport. The 38-year-old Diaz had a decent stand-up game in mixed martial arts, but his pitter-patter punching style is unlikely to translate into the boxing ring. Diaz was also at his best in the UFC in the 155-pound lightweight class. This fight is at 185 pounds. Diaz wearing down and succumbing to a late knockdown therefore becomes all the more likely.

NASCAR (14-10, $3,730): Alex Bowman +110 head-to-head vs. Ty Gibbs at Firekeepers Casino 400 (SuperBook)

$200 to win $220

Bowman hasn’t been competitive since returning to the Cup series off a back injury, but Michigan International Speedway sets up as a venue where he could rediscover his speed on Sunday. The rookie Gibbs hasn’t been very competitive all season, period. The latter has been a little better recently, and his Joe Gibbs Racing team is on the rise, but I’m surprised he’s such a big favorite in this matchup. Bowman hasn’t been great at Michigan but he did finish in the top 10 here last year. He should be a small favorite against Gibbs, not the clear underdog.

NASCAR (14-10, $3,730): Ryan Blaney to win Firekeepers Casino 400 at 13-to-1 (BetMGM) & Chase Elliott to win Firekeepers Casino 400 at 16-to-1 (South Point)

$110 to win $1,430 on Blaney; $90 to win $1,440 on Elliott

While betting against him in matchups the last two weeks, I warned that the time to buy low on Elliott and back him to win was coming soon. It’s here now. Elliott has been one of the surest drivers in the Cup series at Michigan, and his outright price this weekend doesn’t reflect it because of current form. Ditto for Blaney, who won here just two years ago. This is traditionally a strong track for Team Penske, and no one on Team Penske is nearly as fast as Blaney this year. Elliott doesn’t have a victory at Michigan but has put together three second-place finishes and 10 top-10 finishes in 12 races on the course. A breakthrough is coming one of these years.

Soccer (1-1, -$90): U.S. women’s national team to advance vs. Sweden in World Cup at -170 (STN Sports)

$170 to win $100

Are we sure the U.S. team is as bad as it’s being made out to be? This is coming from more or less a soccer novice so consider the source, but maybe my lack of high-level knowledge can help in this case. I’m therefore not as biased, and just look at the data. And the data says the Americans still have a terrific shot, if not the best shot, to win it all in Sydney two weeks from now. They’ve struggled offensively, to be sure, but have suffocated defensively. That makes their overall expected-goal numbers far better than Sweden's through the group stage. Sweden may have gotten better results with a collective 9-1 score through three games, but it’s not going to get so many easy looks against the U.S. I won’t let the misplayed future placed before the tournament to stop me from adding to my exposure on our home country.

Weekend betting column year to date: 74-93-3, $7,454 

Weekend betting column all-time: 552-588-9, $25,963.95

Previous pending wagers: Texas to win the College Football Playoff at 30-to-1 ($100 to win $3,000); Tanner Mordecai to win the Heisman Trophy at 200-to-1 ($30 to win $6,000); Atlanta Braves at 5-to-1 to win the National League ($300 to win $1,500; Atlanta Braves at 10-to-1 to win the World Series ($300 to win $3,000); Buffalo Bills at 9-to-1 to win Super Bowl 58 ($300 to win $2,700); LSU to win the College Football Playoff at 20-to-1 ($150 to win $3,000); Philadelphia Eagles to win Super Bowl 58 at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700); Nolan Smith to win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year at 20-to-1 ($100 to win $2,000); Kansas to win 2024 NCAA Tournament at 14-to-1 ($200 to win $2,800); Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 vs. Miami Dolphins in Week 1 ($330 to win $300); Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 at Minnesota Vikings in Week 1 ($220 to win $200); Baltimore Ravens -9 vs. Houston Texans in Week 1 ($330 to win $300); Buffalo Bills at 10-to-1 to win Super Bowl 58 ($100 to win $1,000); Lamar Jackson to win NFL MVP ($150 to win $2,700); Green Bay Packers +2.5 at Chicago Bears in Week 1 ($330 to win $300); Ohio State to win the College Football Playoff at 8-to-1 ($350 to win $2,800); Carson Beck to win the Heisman Trophy at 30-to-1 ($100 to win $3,000); LSU -1.5 at -115 vs. Florida State in Week 1 ($345 to win $300); Las Vegas Aces to win WNBA Championship at -115 ($575 to win $500); William Byron to win NASCAR Cup Series championship at +750 ($300 to win $2,250); Edmonton Oilers to win 2024 Stanley Cup Final at 12-to-1 ($250 to win $3,000); Mississippi State under 6.5 wins at -145 ($435 to win $300); US women's national team to win World Cup at +250 ($200 to win $500); Colorado under 3.5 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); Miami over 7.5 wins at +125 ($200 to win $250); Myles Garrett to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year ($300 to win $2,400); Florida over 5.5 wins at -120 ($240 to win $200); Kentucky over 7 wins at +110 ($200 to win $220); Mississippi State under 6 wins at Even money ($100 to win $100); Oklahoma State over 6 wins at -140 ($280 to win $200); Texas Tech under 7.5 wins at -120 ($240 to win $200); UCF over 7 wins at Even money ($200 to win $200); West Virginia under 5.5 wins at -180 ($360 to win $200); Cleveland Browns +2 vs. Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1 ($330 to win $300); Air Force to win the Mountain West at 5-to-1 ($200 to win $1,000); Colorado under 3.5 wins at -120 ($120 to win $100); Oregon State under 8.5 wins at -135 ($135 to win $100); USC under 10 wins at Even money ($150 to win $150); Washington over 9 wins at -120 ($180 to win $150); Ohio State over 10.5 wins at Even money ($150 to win $150); Penn State under 9.5 wins at +130 ($150 to win $215); Iowa under 8.5 wins at -115 ($230 to win $200); Nebraska under 6.5 wins at -110 ($220 to win $200); Purdue over 4.5 wins at -140 ($210 to win $150)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or