College football by the odds: Handicapping every ACC win total

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Aug. 10, 2023 | 2 a.m.

So much for a sea change in the ACC.

It seemed like the league might have experienced a watershed moment two years ago when Pittsburgh rolled to a conference championship to snap a six-year streak of Clemson finishing on top. The Tigers finished third in the Atlantic Division that year, while the Panthers overcame as high as 75-to-1 odds in the preseason to take the crown.

The hope was that maybe it signaled the start of increased parity or at least competitiveness at the top of the ACC where there had been little over the last decade. Clemson entered last season as a resounding favorite once again (at around -110, i.e. risking $110 to win $100) but whispers of practice reports that they were vulnerable spread.   

And, it turns out, the Tigers were weakened. It just didn’t matter. They weren’t weakened enough to not coast to a seventh ACC championship in eight years with an undefeated conference record that particularly stood out considering they lost to every other major program they faced (Georgia, Notre Dame, South Carolina and Tennessee).  

Now entering this season, the days of the ACC looking for ripe for the taking appear over. Clemson has a stronger roster on paper than last year and patched up some holes while, perhaps just as importantly, the other somewhat recent ACC power also finally appears to have its act together.

Florida State was the last non-Clemson team to win the ACC before Pittsburgh during a dominant stretch from 2012 to 2014. This year, the Seminoles have their best team since that 2014 squad that reached the inaugural College Football Playoff.  

Take away the 2021 Pittsburgh blip, and the vast majority of players in the ACC this year were in elementary school the last time someone other than Clemson or Florida State won the league (Virginia Tech in 2010).

And the run has more than 80% likelihood to continue this season according to betting odds. Clemson is currently at +145 (i.e. risking $100 to win $145) to win the conference with Florida State following closely behind at +180.

There’s a wide gap between the top of the conference and the rest of the teams, just as it feels like there has been for the last decade.

Teams that could qualify as potential sleepers include Louisville (12-to-1), North Carolina (15-to-1), NC State (15-to-1) and Miami (18-to-1). But it’s going to be extremely difficult for anyone to get past Clemson and Florida State, just like it’s been for an extended period of time.

Read below for a win-total handicap on every team in the ACC. Listed odds next to the team are from Circa Sports, while the pick comes from the best odds on the chosen side available at the five Las Vegas sports books with win totals available on their mobile apps — Circa, SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas, Caesars/William Hill, STN Sports, BetMGM and Boyd Sports. Picks are labeled in three confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses. Plays will be tracked in the Weekend Wagers column throughout the season.

Boston College: 5.5 wins (over -140, under +120)

I found myself in alignment with the market sentiment on teams in the majority of the other power conferences, but the ACC breaks the trend. And it starts with the first team. The Eagles have drawn some buzz out of reports of an effective new run-first offense and strength in the trenches. They were ravaged by injuries during a 3-9 campaign last season, but also saw several players depart via the transfer portal. No matter how well-coached or how smartly-schemed they are, I don’t know if they have the talent to reach bowl eligibility.     

Lean: Under 5.5 wins at +120 (Circa Sports)

Clemson: 10 wins (over -125, under +105)

Former top national recruit Cade Klubnik has everything he could ever need to turn into Clemson’s next great quarterback. The Tigers have a skilled receiving corps, stout offensive line, a do-everything running back in Will Shipley and, perhaps most importantly, a new offensive coordinator. Garrett Riley turned Max Duggan into one of the nation’s best passers a year ago at TCU, and Klubnik is far more naturally gifted. Factor in a lucky schedule draw — where it gets both Florida State and North Carolina at home — and Clemson looks like the clear ACC favorite as usual.

Lean: Over 10 wins at -110 (SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas)

Duke: 6 wins (over -140, under +120)

Mike Elko pulled off one of the best coaching jobs in the nation last year by getting Duke to 8-4 in his first season, but the Blue Devils also benefitted from a great deal of luck likely to regress going forward. They were fifth in the nation in turnover luck, per the SP+ ratings, and caught what turned out to be an unchallenging schedule that featured neither Clemson nor Florida State. The team is largely the same this year, but the slate is tougher and the forecast of every fumble falling right into its hands is unlikely.

Play: Under 6 wins at +125 (Caesars/William Hill)

Florida St.: 9.5 wins (over -155, under +135)

The Seminoles have their best team in a decade but are still underdogs in two of their first four games, against LSU and Clemson. Returning quarterback Jordan Travis was sensational down the stretch last year, but relatively erratic and inconsistent over a larger sample size. He should have a big year, but perhaps shouldn’t sit as low as the second Heisman Trophy choice (at as low at 10-to-1) behind defending winner Caleb Williams at USC. Florida State is suddenly priced similar to programs like Clemson, Alabama and Ohio State, but it hasn’t recruited at that level of those powerhouses in years.

Lean: Under 10 wins at -115 (STN Sports)

Georgia Tech: 4 wins (over -145, under +125)

It’s easy to find reasons to be skeptical of all the bottom-tier teams in the ACC, but someone will have to win some games. At least the Yellow Jackets have shown an ability to do so under now-permanent coach Brent Key, whom led them to a surprising 4-4 record in an interim role a year ago. The team looks a lot different this year, but former Texas A&M quarterback Haynes King could fit well in Atlanta. It’s a much harder sell to go over at the books with an over/under of 4.5, but four is an extremely low bar.

Guess: Over 4 wins at -130 (SuperBook)

Louisville: 8 wins (over -120, under Even money)

The Cardinals have the easiest conference schedule of any team in the ACC and arguably made the most significant transfer-portal additions, but all of that is now priced into this win total. They were an easy over bet at places that opened at 7 in the spring, but the difference from 8-4 to 9-3 is monumental. Not all the new parts, headlined by quarterback Jack Plummer and wide receiver Jamari Thrash, are guaranteed to mesh in first-year coach Jeff Brohm’s system. It takes a leap of faith to call for the team’s best year since Lamar Jackson won the Heisman Trophy, but Louisville has the talent to make it happen.

Guess: Over 8 wins at -120 (Caesars/William Hill)

Miami: 7.5 wins (over +105, under -125)

Speaking of talent, the Hurricanes’ overall roster quality would still be the envy of 75% or more of the teams in college football despite their bottoming out to 5-7 in coach Mario Cristobal’s first season last year. Cristobal rearranged by bringing in two new coordinators, Shannon Lawson on offense and Lance Guidry on defense, that should better utilize the roster. Quarterback Tyler Van Dyke was a trendy Heisman pick a year ago and it was injury more than ineffectiveness that sunk his sophomore season — though both played a role. It’s typically wise to buy the dip when expectations crash at a program like Miami.

Play: Over 7.5 wins at +116 (Boyd Sports)

North Carolina: 8 wins (over Even money, under -120)

NFL super-prospect Drake Maye is back at quarterback but Air Raid practitioner Phil Longo is out at offensive coordinator. The latter might have paved the way to more of the former’s success last year than many are crediting. Maye is too skilled to totally fall off, but some adjustment will be unavoidable with new coordinator Chip Lindsey bringing in a more traditional scheme. Any drop-off on offense could be fatal even if it’s minor considering how much the Tar Heels have struggled on defense. And the outlook isn’t much improved after losing several defenders in the portal.   

Play: Under 8.5 wins at -150 (Boyd)

NC State: 7 wins (over -115, under -105)

To put it simply, the Wolfpack look highly likely to finish with a 7-5 record. That makes the win total at 7 one of the toughest to handicap in the nation. Luckily, a couple sports books haven’t gotten that high yet. It would take an upset or two for NC State to only win six games, and its offense should provide a strong enough baseline to prevent such a decline. Transfer quarterback Brennan Armstrong has shown the ability to put up big numbers and should have more talent at his disposal than he did at his last stop, Virginia. Armstrong’s two best years with the Cavaliers came with current Wolfpack offensive coordinator Robert Anae.

Guess: Over 6.5 wins at -140 (SuperBook)

Pittsburgh: 7 wins (over -125, under +105)

The Panthers were better than their 8-4 record a year ago by most metrics but gave up some big plays at inopportune times on defense and went through a few prolonged offensive droughts. The roster is significantly different this year, but that could be for the better with a lot of experience arriving via the transfer portal. They have one of the best secondaries in the conference and should bounce back defensively under now-veteran coach Phil Narduzzi. In-game decision making has been a recurring struggle for Narduzzi but he’s built a strong enough roster to outplay some of his own shortcomings.

Guess: Over 6.5 wins at -190 (Boyd)

Syracuse: 6 wins (over +105, under -125)

The market has steadily moved against the Orange, but there’s a lot to like here in a conference that looks relatively weak behind a big two of Clemson and Florida State. Syracuse has a high level of returning production, a low-rated strength of schedule and a proven difference-making coach coming in defensive coordinator Rocky Long. Veteran Garrett Shrader has steadily improved throughout his college career, and should be in store for his best season with several experienced skill players around him. Defensively, Marlowe Wax could be one of the conference’s top pass rushers.

Play: Over 6 wins at +105 (Circa)

Virginia: 3 wins (over -110, under -110)

The tragic mass shooting that took the lives of three football players ended Virginia’s season prematurely last year with it sitting at 3-7 and stumbling through an offensive funk. And the Cavaliers have since lost their most useful offensive players in the portal. There was not as much of a late-season decline on defense at the end of last year because they just struggled on that side of the ball all season. Virginia is completely undermanned and doesn’t even have a soft non-conference schedule to fall back on with games against Tennessee, Maryland, in-state rival James Madison and surging Football Championship Subdivision opponent William & Mary.

Lean: Under 3.5 wins at -135 (STN)

Virginia Tech: 5 wins (over +105, under -125)

Brent Pry built a decent defensive team in his first year at the helm but, in the current age of college football and perhaps unlike the landscape during some of the program’s heyday, defense alone isn’t enough to contend. And there’s not much upside for an offense that ranked in the bottom 10 of the nation at only 4.4 yards per play. Quarterback Grant Wells would have to take a major step forward to make bowl eligibility feasible, and he hasn’t shown enough to project such a leap.  

Lean: Under 5.5 wins at -148 (Boyd)

Wake Forest: 6.5 wins (over +120, under -140)

Coach Dave Clawson has proven to consistently get the most out of the players around him, but his work is really cut out for him this year. Wake Forest’s roster is as shorthanded as it’s been since he arrived a decade ago, especially on offense where star quarterback Sam Hartman bailed for Notre Dame. The Demon Deacons should be more competitive defensively, but 7-5 seems like the absolute ceiling and not one they should hit 44% of the time like this line implies.

Lean: Under 6.5 wins at -125 (SuperBook)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or