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Miami Dolphins quarterback Skylar Thompson tosses the ball during the first half of an NFL football game against the New York Jets, Sunday, Jan. 8, 2023, in Miami Gardens, Fla.
Thursday, Jan. 12, 2023 | 2 a.m.
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The third year of the NFL’s expanded “super wild-card weekend” had already produced a set of underwhelming matchups, and now a pair of high-profile quarterback injuries have only worsened the slate.
Betting lines went flying Wednesday morning as news broke that Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa wouldn’t play at Buffalo after a series of concussions and Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson would likely miss a game at Cincinnati with a lingering knee injury.
The Bills shot from a 9-point favorite to a 13-point favorite against the Dolphins. The Bengals rose from a 7-point favorite to an 8.5-point favorite over the Ravens.
The handicap for a third of the games on the playoff-opening schedule therefore comes down to how bettors assess the situations. Exacerbating the issue is the fact that both Jackson’s and Tagovailoa’s top backups may also not play.
The No. 2 quarterback in Baltimore, Tyler Huntley, has shoulder inflammation while Miami’s Teddy Bridgewater is dealing with hand and knee injuries. If all four of the aforementioned players are unavailable, it would leave a pair of rookie quarterbacks making their playoff debuts in the Dolphins’ Skylar Thompson and the Ravens’ Anthony Brown.
That’s not what anyone envisioned when Tagovailoa and Jackson dueled in one of the games of the year in Week 2 with the Dolphins coming back to beat the Ravens 42-38.
Read below for picks on every wild-card weekend matchup. Picks are separated into three confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time. The overall record for the year now stands at 144-121-8 after a 9-7 showing last week.
Plays (39-34-7)
Dallas Cowboys -2.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Dallas towers above Tampa Bay by any and every available efficiency metric. It seems like the Cowboys’ somewhat shaky conclusion to the season has obscured the fact that they’ve played like one of the best teams in the NFL for the majority of the season. That’s a category in which the Buccaneers unequivocally have never belonged this year.
Los Angeles Chargers -2 at Jacksonville Jaguars The Chargers’ statistical profile, and in turn, their power ratings are diminished because they dealt with so many injuries through the first three-fourths of the season. But now they’re mostly healthy and extremely dangerous. This spread should close at -3, so the Chargers are safe to take at anything lower than that.
Leans (53-45-1)
Seattle Seahawks +9.5 at San Francisco 49ers In this same matchup less than a month ago, Seattle closed as only a 3-point underdog (granted, at home) and didn’t acquit itself all that terribly in losing 21-13. A touchdown adjustment is too stark; San Francisco -7.5 would be the fair price meaning this would probably need to get back to Seattle +10 to elevate to a play.
Minnesota Vikings -3 vs. New York Giants Yes, Minnesota has put together one of the luckiest seasons in NFL history — going 11-0 in one-score games and winning its division despite a negative point differential — but that’s more than priced into the betting line now. From a strictly personnel perspective, the Vikings should have the Giants outmanned.
Guesses (52-42)
Miami Dolphins +13.5 at Buffalo Bills If Thompson indeed starts for Miami then this is likely a loser with the spread all but guaranteed to close higher. But if Bridgewater returns — and it looks like there’s a good chance the veteran does as he at least participated in Wednesday’s practice in a limited capacity — then the Dolphins should be able to avoid getting blown out.
Baltimore Ravens +8.5 at Cincinnati Bengals Well, I’m making a bona fide gamble on one of the two murky quarterback situations, so why not use the same strategy on the other? If Jackson plays, which is admittedly reported to be a longer shot than Bridgewater, then this spread is way too high. Scoring margins are historically depressed in games between divisional opponents, another trend I'm following mostly unintentionally in this year's wild-card round picks.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or
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