NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of the Midwest Region

By Case Keefer (contact)

Published Tuesday, March 14, 2023 | 11:30 a.m.

Updated Wednesday, March 15, 2023 | 11:14 a.m.

Houston bowed out of last year’s NCAA Tournament with a major “what could have been” feeling around the program.

A year after reaching their first Final Four in nearly 30 years, the Cougars were in position to do it again after three straight blowout victories and covers, including an upset over No. 1 seed Arizona, to start the tournament. Houston appeared to be playing better than anyone in the nation — even eventual national champion Kansas.

Then a lack of a consistent offense spark without star guard Marcus Sasser, who missed the season with an ACL injury, finally caught up to the Cougars in the Elite Eight where Villanova edged them in a 50-44 slog. Once Sasser pulled his name out of the NBA Draft and announced his intentions to return to Houston, this season was supposed to be the reclamation campaign.

The Cougars would be able to show their full powers with their best player back healthy.

Everything was going according to plan until last Saturday when a slip in the American Athletic Conference Tournament semifinals delivered Sasser into a familiar place. He’s hurt again, nursing a groin injury that kept him out of an AAC Tournament Championship Game loss to Memphis, and there’s no clarity on whether he’ll play at the start of the tournament on Thursday.

The betting market seems to think Sasser will be in the lineup, or at least that Houston will be fine without him. The Cougars are the most likely team in the 68-team NCAA Tournament field to reach the Final Four, at odds as low as -110 (i.e. risking $110 to win $100) around town.

They’re also the consensus favorite to cut down the nets, most commonly at +500 (i.e. risking $100 to win $500).

The Cougars certainly received a favorable path, as they project as at least six-point favorites in every potential matchup until the Elite Eight. And the most likely Elite Eight opponents are dealing with Sasser-like situations of their own.

No. 2 seed Texas is closer to full health but have been somewhat, and understandably, erratic since interim coach Rodney Terry took over early in the season after Chris Beard was dismissed following a domestic violence arrest.

No. 3 seed Xavier will officially be without their best player, forward Zach Freemantle, after he was lost for the year with a broken foot.

No. 6 seed Iowa State saw third-leading scorer Caleb Grill dismissed from the program. Even No. 4 seed Indiana, whom Houston could see in the Sweet 16, has battled injuries all year.

Attrition reigns supreme in the Midwest Region, and the winner might come down to which team can navigate its roster challenges better than the others. Houston appears to be a cut above the rest, but Sasser’s health could slice into the gap and ruin its dreams for the second straight year.

Read below for picks on every round of 64 Midwest region game. Picks are listed in rough order of confidence, and labeled in three separate confidence categories. This is part two of a four-part series with part one available here. Numbers are the best available in Las Vegas at the time of publication. Check back later for another pick after the First Four game Tuesday night.

No. 8 seed Iowa +1.5 vs. No. 9 seed Auburn The Tigers deserve some adjustment for inexplicably getting a semi-home game in Birmingham, Ala., but not this large of one. Iowa should be at least a 3-point favorite on a true neutral site, and a 4.5-point difference from that number is too drastic. Iowa is the far more talented team overall too. Auburn could outmuscle Iowa on a good day but also stands little chance if Kris Murray, who will be best player on the floor, is locked in and clicking. Play: Iowa +1.5.

No, 7 seed Texas A&M -3 vs. No. 10 seed Penn State Nittany Lions guard Jalen Pickett is one of the nation’s best players and a sight to behold on the offensive end, but aside from him, the Aggies have advantages all over the floor. Texas A&M really came into its own late in the season — going 10-2 against the spread since the start of February — and play a more efficient style than Penn State. The Nittany Lions settle for midrange shots too frequently, contributing to their No. 75 standing in Shot Quality’s team strength metric. Play: Texas A&M -3.

No. 1 seed Houston -19.5 vs. No. 16 seed Northern Kentucky Sasser should be fine long-term, but the Cougars seem likely to play it careful with him over the first weekend. This line has moved a point since opening, but that’s not enough if Sasser isn’t playing his full allotment of minutes or with his usual intensity. These are two of the five slowest teams in the tournament, per kenpom.com’s tempo metric, so there will be fewer opportunities for the Cougars to bank a blowout. No. 16 seeds have recently been a poor investment on the point spread against No. 1 seeds, but the Norse and their hybrid zone defense should be in line to at least cover. Play: Northern Kentucky +19.5.

No. 2 seed Texas -13.5 vs. No. 15 seed Colgate Lanky, athletic and experienced, Texas is a nightmare matchup for Colgate. With a similar core, the Raiders have been among the most successful mid-major programs for three years straight where they’ve won the Patriot League. But Colgate hasn’t fared well against power-conference opponents, including Arkansas and Wisconsin in each of the last two tournaments, and Texas is almost surely the best one it’s faced. Lean: Texas -13.5.

No. 11 seed Mississippi State -2.5 vs. No. 11 seed Pittsburgh Mississippi State are an eyesore to watch offensively, but tactically brilliant behind one of the nation’s best coaches in Chris Jans. Pittsburgh is the rare tournament team that won’t have Mississippi State totally outgunned from a talent perspective, and the Bulldogs seem likely to be able to smother the Panthers defensively. Mississippi State would have been a play at the opening line of -1.5, but it's since drifted into more appropriate territory. Lean: Mississippi State -2.5.

No. 4 seed Indiana -4.5 vs. No. 13 seed Kent State If you prescribe to the cliché of guard play being the most important component to winning in the tournament, then Kent State has to be the pick. The Golden Flashes’ perimeter players, led by Sincere Carry and Malique Jacobs, have been far more productive than their Hoosier counterparts. Indiana big man Trayce Jackson-Davis could create some real problems, but Kent State might be more prepared than similar teams in its position. The Flashes have actually faced a reasonably tough schedule for Mid-American Conference standards. Lean: Kent State +4.5.

No. 6 seed Iowa State -4 vs. No. 11 seed Pittsburgh In Tuesday’s First Four game, Pittsburgh eventually got comfortable enough thwarting Mississippi State’s pestering defense with its guards showing off their ball-handling skills. That could be valuable training going into a game against Iowa State, which is a similarly defensive-minded team. The pace also figures to be slow with fewer possessions for either team to create much separation. Guess: Pittsburgh +4.

No. 5 seed Miami -2 vs. No. 12 seed Drake In a different age of betting on the tournament, Miami would have opened at least a 5-point favorite just based on reputation and seeding. But markets become more efficient over time, and now this spread is right where it belongs. Despite their Power Five conference status, the Hurricanes hold no major advantage over the Bulldogs. This is a fair fight, with Miami’s big-play guards squaring off against Drake swingman Tucker DeVries. With a spread so small, coaching must be considered and there’s an experience and trust factor in favor of Miami’s Jim Larranaga over Drake’s Darian DeVries. Guess: Miami -2.

No. 3 seed Xavier -11.5 vs. No. 14 seed Kennesaw St. The total of 151 means this is anticipated to be one of the highest-scoring games of the first round. Both teams have shooters and play fast, a stylistic setup that benefits the Musketeers. More possessions means more opportunity for Xavier to pull away from the less-talented Kennesaw State. The Owls present a real backdoor-cover threat with their 3-point shooting ability, but that’s not enough to back them with a number that looks ever-so-slightly short. Guess: Xavier -11.5.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or