Weekend wagers: Seven bets to make on seven sports

T-minus seven days until college football season begins. Nineteen days are left until the NFL follows suit.

Who’s counting?

Bettors certainly are.

Sportsbooks will command monster handles for both Florida State vs. Georgia Tech next Saturday in Dublin, Ireland, and then the Kansas City Chiefs’ banner night hosting the Baltimore Ravens on Sept 5.

Let’s get ahead of it. I’ll cap this edition of Weekend Wagers with a play on each season-opening affair, after the usual potpourri of other sports.

The column is back after a one-week hiatus, and ready to crush football season every weekend for the rest of the year.

Let’s get it started below where you can find all seven of this week’s plays. Odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas at publication time with the sports book noted. Plays outside of the column will be linked and tracked in the record at the bottom of the page.

Golf (7-10, $2,920): Scottie Scheffler to win FedEx St. Jude Championship at +195 (Circa Sports)

$400 to win $780

He's going to do it again, isn't he? The first round of the  FedEx Cup Playoffs is going to wind up like most of the PGA Tour's biggest tournaments this year where the world's best player chases everyone down during the weekend and pulls away in the end. He doesn't even have that great of a competition to prevent it at TPC Southwind where currently only Hideki Matsuyama, Denny McCarthy and Sam Burns sit ahead of Scheffler on the leaderboard. Matsuyama, the co-leader at 11-under par, is a notoriously inconsistent putter who's sitting first in strokes-gained putting through two rounds of the tournament. That's bound to fall. The other co-leader McCarthy went off with a 7-under par on Friday hours after announcing he had hip injury. The veteran McCarthy has never won a PGA Tour event so it seems like a stretch that he'll get his maiden victory while hobbled. Burns, at 10-under par, will be tough but he's only a stroke ahead of his close friend Scheffler who's better in every area. With the way the first two rounds have gone, there's just not a lot standing in the way of Scheffler picking up his eighth victory of the year and second straight after denting the column's bottom line by taking advantage of Jon Rahm's collapse at the Olympics two weeks ago.  

WNBA (4-2, $250): Chicago Sky -1.5 -112 at Los Angeles Sparks (Boyd Sports)

$224 to win $200

The Sparks started the year somewhat promising but now look to be rivaling the Dallas Wings as the worst team in the WNBA. Their fall is largely attributed to injuries with four significant contributors now injured as the WNBA restarts post-Olympic break. But it’s not getting any better, and the market may not have adjusted downwards enough if their first game back was any indication. The Liberty were only an 11-point favorite ahead of obliterating the Sparks 103-68. The Sky aren’t nearly as feared but I still made them a 3.5-point favorite in this spot — leaving more than enough room for a bet on the favorite. Chicago dealt with a key absence of its own in the first game back, to center Chennedy Carter, but she was just ill and could return this afternoon.  

MLB (7-8, -$506): Texas Rangers -116 vs. Minnesota Twins (Boyd Sports)

$232 to win $200

Rangers starter Nathan Eovaldi has been getting shelled, and Twins starter David Festa has been rolling. That’s not going to last forever. I expect both of today’s starters in this game to eventually perform closer to their baselines, which would have Texas sitting as a larger favorite in this matchup. It hasn’t been an ideal World Series defense season for the Rangers, which sit a jarring 10.5 games out of a wild-card spot, but their roster quality remains high overall. It’s competitive with the Twins, which are safely currently in the playoffs with a two-game lead in the wild-card standings. Combine a comparable lineup with a starting-pitching edge, and the Rangers should be a bigger favorite than this.   

UFC (6-9, -$786): Israel Adesanya Even money vs. Dricus Du Plessis at UFC 305 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

$200 to win $200

This feels like a role reversal as I’ve been betting against “The Last Stylebender” virtually his entire UFC career but the number in tonight’s blockbuster main event from Perth, Australia, just feels off. Adesanya is far more accomplished than Du Plessis. He’s far more talented than Du Plessis. As long as he’s all there mentally — and, in fairness, one could argue he’s not — he should win his middleweight title back for a third time. This is not a bad stylistic matchup for Adesanya either. Yes, Du Plessis is a better grappler but he’s far from an elite one and not someone who looks to employ that part of his game all that much. He’s more of an aggressor who looks to come forward and attack with reckless abandon. It’s served him well in becoming a surprise champion, but should leave him open to counters against Adesanya. The line opened as high Adesanya -130 with Du Plessis coming back at +110, and that remains a truer price to how I see the matchup.

NASCAR (5-16, -$620): Denny Hamlin to win Firekeepers Casino 400 at +575 (Caesars/William Hill)

$200 to win $1,150

Hamlin was speeding towards the finish line for a win at Richmond last week when Austin Dillon hooked him to cause a crash and claim a victory of his own. Chalk it up as the latest stroke of bad luck for Hamlin, who's arguably been the best driver in the Cup series this year. The 43-year-old has three wins on the season but could easily have double that amount if it wasn't for late-race high jinks striking against him. At some point, he's going to catch a break. Maybe that happens this weekend at Michigan International Speedway where he's been the best driver since the introduction of NASCAR's next-gen car. Hamlin is the favorite in the race, but he should be even lower — perhaps around the 4-to-1 he was last week at Richmond. He was 6-to-1 at multiple sportsbooks for much of this week but drew some money Friday to dip down just below that price. It's been a top-heavy NASCAR season, with a few exceptions including Dillon's controversial victory last weekend, and this weekend's race may be the same. 

College Football (0-0, $0): Florida State -11 vs. Georgia Tech in Dublin, Ireland (South Point)

$220 to win $200

I might have already given away this pick by wagering on Florida State to win the ACC last month. In hindsight, someone had to do it. Since then, I’ve heard nothing but negativity on the Seminoles. No one expects them to be anywhere close to the undefeated team of last year. I’m not so sure. While the Seminoles’ schedule should preclude them from being undefeated, they’re just as talented as last year’s ACC championship team. Florida State and Georgia Tech didn’t play a year ago, but the former would have been more than a two-touchdown favorite on a neutral field like this. The Seminoles opened as a 14-point favorite in this game, but the line has steadily come down. It’s come down too much, to the point that there’s now value on the favorite. Expect the line to climb back up soon, so get in before that happens.

NFL (0-0, $0): Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs over 46.5 (Circa Sports)

$220 to win $200

This total isn’t a huge edge — I made it 47.5 — but an over bet looks preferable to playing either side in the opener with the Chiefs currently a 2.5-point favorite. Overs in general are going to be the way to look early in the NFL season. Scoring should trend slightly higher with the new NFL kickoff rules, which will either result in more explosive plays via return or better field position with teams settling for touchbacks at the 30-yard line. The total on the AFC Championship Game between these two teams seven months ago was 44, but that game was played in chilly conditions. Both defenses were also stronger than they project to be to start this season. The Ravens lost a chunk of not only players but staff headlined by coordinator Mike Macdonald taking the head-coaching job with the Seahawks. The Chiefs are closer to the same unit but did lose top corner L’Jarius Sneed and linchpin linebacker Willie Gay. This feels like a bit of a gamble, but it should be a popular choice — who doesn’t want to kick off the NFL season rooting for points?

2024 Weekend betting column: 78-81, $9,387.87

Weekend betting column all-time: 738-793-11, $40,788.87 

Previous pending wagers: Oregon -1.5 -102 vs. Ohio State in Week 7 ($306 to win $300); New York Yankees to win World Series ($300 to win $3,000); Christopher Bell to win NASCAR Cup championship at 12-to-1 ($200 to win $2,400); Patrick Mahomes to win 2024-2025 NFL MVP at +750 ($350 to win $2,625); Kansas City Chiefs to win Super Bowl 59 at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700); New York Liberty to win WNBA Championship at +250 ($500 to win $1,250); Inter Miami to win MLS Cup at +300 ($500 to win $1,500); Tarik Skubal to win American League Cy Young at 20-to-1 ($120 to win $2,400); Cole Ragans to win American League Cy Young at 35-to-1 ($70 to win $2,450); Los Angeles Chargers -3 -120 vs. Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1 ($220 to win $200); New Jersey Devils to win Stanley Cup Final at 16-to-1 ($250 to win $4,000); Reed Sheppard to win NBA Rookie of the Year at 11-to-1 ($200 to win $2,200); Dillon Gabriel to win the Heisman Trophy at 14-to-1 ($200 to win $2,800); Dave Canales to win NFL Coach of the Year at 20-to-1 ($100 to win $2,000); Carolina Hurricanes to win President's Trophy at 15-to-1 ($150 to win $2,250); Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to win NBA MVP ($300 to win $1,800); UNLV football to win the Mountain West at 8-to-1 ($200 to win $1,600); LSU vs. USC under 62.5 in Week 1 ($330 to win $300); Carolina Panthers +5 at Las Vegas Raiders in Week 3 ($220 to win $200); Florida State to win the ACC at 3-to-1 ($315 to win $945); SMU to win the ACC at 16-to-1 ($75 to win $1,200); New Orleans Saints to win the NFC South at +425 ($200 to win $950); CeeDeee Lamb to win Offensive Player of the Year at 10-to-1 ($300 to win $3,000); Aidan Hutchinson to win Defensive Player of the Year at 16-to-1 ($200 to win $3,200); Justin Madubuike to win Defensive Player of the Year at 100-to-1 ($25 to win $2,500); Derrick Henry to lead the NFL in rushing at 20-to-1 ($100 to win $2,000); James Cook to lead the NFL in rushing yards at 35-to-1 ($65 to win $2,275); Bo Nix to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 18-to-1 ($100 to win $1,800); JJ McCarthy to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 25-to-1 ($75 to win $1,875); Jared Verse to win Defensive Rookie of the Year at 11-to-1 ($200 to win $2,200); Chop Robinson to win Defensive Rookie of the Year at 20-to-1 ($110 to win $2,200); Penn State to make the College Football Playoff at -125 ($250 to win $200); Dallas Cowboys to win the NFC East at +175 ($300 to win $525)

 

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or