College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Week 0

Betting history is already on pace to be made during college football’s soft-opening Saturday.

Football Championship Subdivision program Montana State is currently a 10.5-point favorite over Football Bowl Subdivision opponent New Mexico ahead of the teams’ showdown in Albuquerque, N.M. That’s the largest amount of points a lower-tier team has ever been favored by against a top-level counterpart.

And it might not even be enough.

Montana State is bringing back one of the best teams in school history coming off back-to-back years ranking in the top six of the FCS. New Mexico hasn’t won more than four games in eight years and is now starting anew with first-year coach Bronco Mendenhall.

It’s a lot of points for what’s supposed to be an inferior program on the road, but the Bobcats are the only way I could look to bet the game — especially if the spread dips to -10.

But luckily, College Football by the Odds only handicaps every FBS vs. FBS game. Montana State at New Mexico will not be included for tracking purposes.

I might not be officially betting Montana State, but it’s looking like a chalky “Week 0” nonetheless with the two FBS vs. FBS games. I’ll be rooting for favorites to get off to a fast start to the season to top last year’s mark of 385-364-15 (96-95-2 on plays, 137-124-5 on leans and 152-145-8 on guesses) against the spread picking every game.

I’m happy with that overall mark, but I want the splits to get much stronger toward the plays this year.

Read below for picks and write-ups of the first two games of the year. Picks are labeled in one of three confidence categories, with the line being the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time.

Florida State -11 vs. Georgia Tech in Dublin Ireland, over/under: 55.5. Before now-graduated Seminole quarterback Jordan Travis went down at the end of last year, Florida State would have been at least a 17-point favorite in this matchup on a neutral field. This line, and public perception, implies a drastic fall-off for Florida State. I don’t think a fall-off that severe is imminent. This is still one of the most talent-rich rosters in the nation, and not all that devoid of experience in a few key position groups — namely the offensive line and secondary. Georgia Tech’s offense might be able to keep up for a while, but its defense projects to be a work in progress. This line should be Florida State -14. Play: Florida State -11.

SMU -25 at UNR, over/under: 56.5. SMU -18 might go down as one of the worst opening numbers of the year. The Mustangs bring back a proven roster that won the American Athletic Conference last year, and they should be even better this season. The Wolf Pack are starting from scratch with new coach Jeff Choate, and presumed starting quarterback Chubba Purdy is now dealing with a shoulder injury. Mackay Stadium is a relatively tough place to play, but SMU should overwhelm UNR in every area. This would have been a play as recently as a couple weeks ago when the number was below 24, but it's since arrived at a more appropriate range. Guess: SMU -25.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or