Weekend Wagers: Eight bets on eight different sports

Football season is back, and it feels oh-so-good.

It will feel even better when a full college football slate commences next weekend instead of today’s two measly Football Bowl Subdivision games, and then euphoric in two weeks when the NFL joins the party.

There’s nothing wrong with looking ahead, especially since I’ve already handicapped both of today’s games and even bet one in Weekend Wagers, so today’s column will cap with a pair of Week 1 picks in each sport.  

That will be only after the usual varied offerings including one new league I’m throwing into the mix today.

Find all of this week’s plays below. Odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas at publication time with the sports book noted. Plays outside of the column will be linked and tracked in the record at the bottom of the page.

Golf (7-11, $2,520): Davis Thompson -140 head-to-head vs. Max Homa in third round of the BMW Championship (Circa Sports)

$280 to win $200

Premier League (0-0, $0): Arsenal -130 at Aston Villa in three-way market (South Point)

$260 to win $200

Aston Villa’s market rating is a bit high coming off last season’s unforeseen rise to the top four of the table and, therefore, Champions League berth. The club’s focus may be on the latter this season, and it’s no guarantee it immediately carries over the same form as it did last year anyway. Aston Villa didn’t look all that convincing in beating West Ham 2-1 on Match Day 1 in a game where the former lost the expected-goals tally. Arsenal, meanwhile, is loaded and smoked Wolverhampton 2-0 a week ago. The Gunners should keep trampling the opposition today.  

UFC (6-10, -$986): Wang Cong by stoppage vs. Victoria Leonardo at -169 (STN Sports)

$338 to win $200

Cong is a lethal kickboxer while Leonardo is a chinny, bottom-of-the-roster UFC journeywoman. This fight seems put together expressly to give the Vietnamese striker a highlight to add to her reel in her first UFC fight. She’s a -1250 favorite on the money line, and there’s much too large of a gap in her proposition price to get the victory by finish. Sure, the women’s flyweight division is notorious for going to the scorecards, but this is one situation where history shouldn’t repeat. Leonardo has gotten stopped in three of her last four fights, and Cong might be even dangerous than those opponents.  

MLB (7-9, -$738): Houston Astros -120 at Baltimore Orioles (Boyd Sports)

$240 to win $200

Astros starter Framber Valdez has been soaring ever since the All-Star break whereas Orioles counterpart Albert Suárez has been more up and down. That trend extends to both of these teams overall too. Houston has regained its status as a top-flight World Series contender and pulled away in the American League West while Baltimore is slowly but surely allowing the New York Yankees to take control of the American League East. The Orioles’ once-feared lineup is suddenly slipping, and a matchup with Valdez isn’t the ideal place to get back into rhythm.   

WNBA (5-2, $450): Indiana Fever +7 at Minnesota Lynx (Boyd Sports)

$220 to win $200

It’s all coming together for Caitlin Clark and the Fever, who have now won four of their last five games after an iffy start to the season. But that’s not what this bet is about. Indiana still might be a better team to fade going forward given that Clark’s popularity knows no bounds and is even infiltrating the betting market. Today’s game is more about the schedule though. Minnesota can’t have much left in a back-to-back spot and their third game in four days after a home-and-home with the Las Vegas Aces. The market has all but mastered rest pricing in the NBA, but I still think it’s undervalued in the WNBA. Weary teams have far underperformed all year, and the Lynx should be the latest example today.      

NASCAR (5-17, -$820): Todd Gilliland head-to-head vs. Daniel Suárez in Coke Zero 400 at Even money (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

$200 to win $200

Daytona International Speedway makes for such variance-filled racing that I’m almost exclusively looking for matchups with drivers at Even money or better. This might be the best head-to-head currently available in town fitting that description. Anyone can win at a superspeedway, but Ford has mastered the art of racing at drafting tracks more than the other two manufacturers. That should benefit Gilliland, who’s been a revelation in his second full-time season in the Cup series. He’s outperformed his Front Row Motorsports equipment, and should continue to do so Saturday — especially considering he posted the second-best qualifying time. 

College Football (0-0, $0): Texas A&M -2.5 vs. Notre Dame (SuperBook)

$220 to win $200

Yes, I’m failing to get the best number on this game after it sat at Notre Dame -1 for part of the offseason. I wish I would have bet the Aggies then, and definitely would have with the injury news that’s since broke. Notre Dame left tackle Charles Jagusah is out for the year, a crippling blow for a thin unit tasked with protecting the flashy-but-flimsy Riley Leonard at quarterback. Texas A&M’s formidable pass-rushing group, led by Nic Scourton, should now have a field day in Mike Elko’s first game as head coach. Elko, by the way, coached Leonard at Duke and therefore should know the best things to throw at him defensively. Everything points to Texas A&M, and while it would be nice to have it as an underdog, there’s still value on -2.5 considering this number should close -3.5.

NFL (0-0, $0): Houston Texans -1.5 -115 at Indianapolis Colts in Week 1 (BetMGM)

$230 to win $200

Reports from training camp into the preseason weren’t the most glowing on second-year Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson. Perhaps many were expecting too much from the raw passer out of Florida who missed virtually his entire rookie season with injury. Richardson doesn’t have a great complement of weapons, especially with running back Zack Moss bailing for the Cincinnati Bengals in free agency. The Texans meanwhile assembled an All-Star team in the offseason and should get off to a fast start while everyone is healthy. Richardson might have a potential on par with second-year Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud long-term, but he’s not there yet. The roster-quality is so slanted in the Texans’ favor that this number should at least be -3, even with the defending division champions having to open the season on the road.  

2024 Weekend betting column: 79-85, $8,555.87

Weekend betting column all-time: 739-797-11, $39,956.87 

Previous pending wagers: Oregon -1.5 -102 vs. Ohio State in Week 7 ($306 to win $300); New York Yankees to win World Series ($300 to win $3,000); Christopher Bell to win NASCAR Cup championship at 12-to-1 ($200 to win $2,400); Patrick Mahomes to win 2024-2025 NFL MVP at +750 ($350 to win $2,625); Kansas City Chiefs to win Super Bowl 59 at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700); New York Liberty to win WNBA Championship at +250 ($500 to win $1,250); Inter Miami to win MLS Cup at +300 ($500 to win $1,500); Tarik Skubal to win American League Cy Young at 20-to-1 ($120 to win $2,400); Cole Ragans to win American League Cy Young at 35-to-1 ($70 to win $2,450); Los Angeles Chargers -3 -120 vs. Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1 ($220 to win $200); New Jersey Devils to win Stanley Cup Final at 16-to-1 ($250 to win $4,000); Reed Sheppard to win NBA Rookie of the Year at 11-to-1 ($200 to win $2,200); Dillon Gabriel to win the Heisman Trophy at 14-to-1 ($200 to win $2,800); Dave Canales to win NFL Coach of the Year at 20-to-1 ($100 to win $2,000); Carolina Hurricanes to win President's Trophy at 15-to-1 ($150 to win $2,250); Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to win NBA MVP ($300 to win $1,800); UNLV football to win the Mountain West at 8-to-1 ($200 to win $1,600); LSU vs. USC under 62.5 in Week 1 ($330 to win $300); Carolina Panthers +5 at Las Vegas Raiders in Week 3 ($220 to win $200); Florida State to win the ACC at 3-to-1 ($315 to win $945); SMU to win the ACC at 16-to-1 ($75 to win $1,200); New Orleans Saints to win the NFC South at +425 ($200 to win $950); CeeDeee Lamb to win Offensive Player of the Year at 10-to-1 ($300 to win $3,000); Aidan Hutchinson to win Defensive Player of the Year at 16-to-1 ($200 to win $3,200); Justin Madubuike to win Defensive Player of the Year at 100-to-1 ($25 to win $2,500); Derrick Henry to lead the NFL in rushing at 20-to-1 ($100 to win $2,000); James Cook to lead the NFL in rushing yards at 35-to-1 ($65 to win $2,275); Bo Nix to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 18-to-1 ($100 to win $1,800); JJ McCarthy to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 25-to-1 ($75 to win $1,875); Jared Verse to win Defensive Rookie of the Year at 11-to-1 ($200 to win $2,200); Chop Robinson to win Defensive Rookie of the Year at 20-to-1 ($110 to win $2,200); Penn State to make the College Football Playoff at -125 ($250 to win $200); Dallas Cowboys to win the NFC East at +175 ($300 to win $525);  Florida State -11 vs. Georgia Tech in Dublin, Ireland ($220 to win $200), Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs over 46.5 ($220 to win $200)

 

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or