Wild-card weekend sweats: Seven wagers to add to your betting card

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Jan. 13, 2024 | 2 a.m.

It’s the four-year anniversary of the moment that really ensured the Sunday Sweats column would stick around long-term.

At the onset of the 2020-2021 NFL playoffs, I started a de facto moneyline-rollover parlay on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to reach the Super Bowl that produced better than a 7-to-1 payout. Much bigger wins in the column have followed in the years since, but that was the first — and most memorable — decent score in the then-new column. 

Every year since, I’ve sought to key in on a team and run it back with another rollover — even considering the Rams ahead of their Super Bowl in 2022 — but it hasn’t worked out. And never has the exercise has been farther away from being put into action than this year.

Moneyline rollovers are best when there’s an under-the-radar team hiding in plain sight among a pool of contenders. But the pool is dry this season.

Baltimore and San Francisco are so much better than the rest of the league that it’s difficult to commit to anyone else. I locked in a matchup future on the two No. 1 seeds meeting in the Super Bowl last week. The +330 (i.e. risking $100 to win $330) price was too appealing ,even though it's likely one of them gets knocked off given the nature of the NFL.

Buffalo and Dallas are the top contenders, but the betting market looks to be in line. Someday, the opportunity for another moneyline rollover will arise again.

But for now, it’s back to winning one bet at a time. I’m still giving myself a chance for some high payouts on wild-card weekend as only two of the bets in the traditional seven categories below aren’t available at plus money.

Read below to find this week’s Sunday Sweats. Lines are the best currently available at publication time in Las Vegas with the sports book noted. Plays from other betting columns will be linked and tracked here at the bottom of the page.

Tasty Total (13-5, $1,402): Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs under 44 (SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas)

$220 to win $200

Watching the push/pull between over and under bettors in this game all week has been fascinating. An early surge of under money came naturally with the weather forecast to knock the total down from as high as 46. For a while, it looked like it would never stop moving and perhaps hit 42 or lower. But a little buyback arrived Friday and sports books settled around 42. Those who bet the over recently would surely say the coldness doesn’t matter nearly as much as the declining wind projections. And, normally, I’d agree. Wind is much more correlated with low-scoring games than cold. But this game is supposed to be historically cold. It’s hard to imagine either teams’ weapons getting fully comfortable, especially considering how well both defenses have played over the second half of the season. I’d likely be targeting the under in a higher-lined game if these teams were playing under normal circumstances. Maybe that would be preferable, but under 44 in this situation will work just fine.

Two-(Or Three-) Team Teaser (7-11, -$970): Houston Texans +8.5, Dallas Cowboys -1 & Buffalo Bills-Pittsburgh Steelers under 40 points at +150 (STN Sports)

$100 to win $150

Because of this week’s board, I was going to have to break at least one rule of mathematical-advantage teasers regardless — either not getting fully through the 3 and 7 with a side or including a total in general. Why not just say sayonara to both? The Texans are the only traditional teaser side left on the board, and while I do like them, the trouble comes in figuring out the other leg(s). The Cowboys were an easier inclusion when they were a 7.5-point favorite, but at 7, it’s a harder sell. It feels dangerous including Dallas against a feisty Green Bay team, so why not just embrace the danger and add variance by lumping in one more game? I’ve never teased a total in my entire life until, now, but the weather issues in Kansas City vs. Miami will pale in comparison to the ones in Buffalo vs. Pittsburgh. The Sunday morning game is going to be extremely ugly. Scoring in the 40s seems extremely far-fetched. Other sports books have gone to over/under 33.5, but STN sticking with 34 and offering +150 on three-team teasers, convinced me this is the best one-time-only approach to employ.     

Moneyline Parlay (6-12, $1,433): Kansas City Chiefs & Detroit Lions at +130 (South Point)

$200 to win $260.87

Fan of parlaying moneyline favorites? You’ve got to bet with South Point, which time and again has the lowest prices on the favorites. I think its odds on both Kansas City (-230) and Detroit (-160) are a little short this week, hence this bet. The Lions are the better top-to-bottom team than the Rams, and this might be the lowest price on them to win outright in the world. There are actually a few shops with slightly more appealing odds on the Chiefs but South Point is close, and given the Lions’ price, this is the best payout available on pairing the two together. Miami could give Kansas City a run at full strength at Arrowhead, but its injury report is too severe to overcome. And that’s before even beginning to factor in the weather, which should hurt the warm-weather, big-play Dolphins more than the Chiefs.   

Player Prop (23-12, $2,262): Mecole Hardman Anytime Touchdown at 8-to-1 (Boyd Sports)

$100 to win $800

All the rumblings out of Kansas City indicate that the veteran receiver is in line for a bigger role given an injury to counterpart Kadarius Toney and the way he showed out in a Week 18 win over the Chargers. It’s even possible the Chiefs were preserving Hardman for this moment upon reacquiring him after a stint with the Jets to start the season. A safer way to play on Hardman would be taking his over 14.5 receiving yards — which I’ve also bet — but why not swing for a big payout in the column? Hardman scoring a touchdown at least seems more likely than this astronomical price. Kansas City has loved running gimmick plays with him in the past, and has even thrown in a few for Toney near the end zone in recent years. It’s still more likely that Hardman doesn’t score, of course, but these odds make it worth taking a shot that he cashes in for the first time since returning to Kansas City.     

Lookahead Line (9-8, $110): Brock Purdy to lead the NFL playoffs in passing yards at +450 (Caesars/William Hill)

$150 to win $675

I pledged to provide a Super Bowl MVP bet in Thursday’s pick’em. I’m hoping this will suffice. The 49ers are still far and away the most likely Super Bowl winner, in my opinion. The presence of a runaway favorite would typically make me an advocate for a bet on their quarterback to win the MVP. But this year is a different scenario. No one wants to give the former Mr. Irrelevant Purdy credit and, to be fair, the 49ers are as stacked with playmakers around him as his detractors say. There are simply too many candidates if the 49ers win the Super Bowl next month at Allegiant Stadium. Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel could all conceivably steal it from him. But if San Francisco is to win the Super Bowl, it’s hard to see how it could happen without Purdy keeping up the stratospheric statistical production he showed all season. Betting on Purdy to lead in passing yards also gives a 20-cent boost from his price to win the MVP, further cementing this as the better bet.   

Future Finding (2-10, -$200): Detroit Lions to score the most points in wild card weekend at +500 (Circa Sports)

$100 to win $500

Lions vs. Rams has the most shootout potential of the weekend — narrowly edging Cowboys vs. Packers – and I’ve already established how much I like the home team. This price seems generous, a little too far behind Dallas (at +370) for favorite status. The Lions have plus-matchups all over the field on offense, especially if rookie tight end Sam LaPorta ends up cleared to play. The Rams are available at 8-to-1, which isn’t a bad bet for anyone who likes Los Angeles’ shot at the upset. But I’m all in on Detroit this weekend, and this is just another nod in that direction.

Nonfootball Play (10-8, $1,554): Texas A&M pick’em vs. Kentucky (Caesars/William Hill)

$275 to win $250

Kentucky has won and covered in six straight games to become everyone’s NCAA Tournament championship pick. Texas A&M has lost two straight, and failed to cover in four straight, to make everyone wonder if it will even make the NCAA Tournament. Some regression is bound to strike on both sides. These teams are pretty even at their core, enough that either home team should be favored by at least a possession. The Aggies still grade out highly by several metrics including Shot Quality’s team standings where they’re No. 5 in the nation. Texas A&M’s process has been strong; its results just haven’t been there to show it. It should be able to open some eyes against Kentucky, which is talented but reliant on several young players and therefore not fully trustworthy on the road.

Sunday Sweats season so far: 69-67, $5,008

2024 Weekend betting column to date: 4-3, $230

Weekend betting column all-time: 661-703-11, $30,526 

Previous pending wagers: Philadelphia Eagles to win Super Bowl 58 at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700); Nolan Smith to win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year at 20-to-1 ($100 to win $2,000); Kansas to win 2024 NCAA Tournament at 14-to-1 ($200 to win $2,800); Buffalo Bills at 10-to-1 to win Super Bowl 58 ($100 to win $1,000); Lamar Jackson to win NFL MVP ($150 to win $2,700); Edmonton Oilers to win 2024 Stanley Cup Final at 12-to-1 ($250 to win $3,000); Anthony Richardson to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 9-to-1 ($200 to win $1,800); Zay Flowers to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 30-to-1 ($65 to win $1,950); Cleveland Cavaliers to win Central division at 3-to-1 ($300 to win $900); Victor Wembanyama to win NBA Rookie of the Year at +125 ($400 to win $500); AJ Brown to win Offensive Player of the Year at 18-to-1 ($100 to win $1,800); Rudy Gobert to win NBA Defensive Player of the Year at 5-to-1 ($300 to win $1,500); Tyreek Hill to win Offensive Player of the Year at Even money ($500 to win $500); South Carolina women's basketball to win NCAA Tournament at +450 ($400 to win $1,800); Super Bowl Matchup: San Francisco 49ers vs. Baltimore Ravens at +330 ($200 to win $660)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or