Weekend wagers: Eight bets to make on eight different sports

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, July 13, 2024 | 2 a.m.

Of all the 12 football teams that paraded through Circa as part of Mountain West Media Days earlier this week, UNLV stood out as one of the most confident groups.

The Rebels should be.

UNLV has everything it needs to push one step further than last season’s conference championship game appearance in coach Barry Odom’s first year, and finish the job this fall.  Much of the rest of the conference is in flux with seven new coaches and another usual contender (Air Force) rebuilding completely from a personnel standpoint.

But UNLV returns a stacked roster and coaching staff that flashed its potential last year. This year, the Rebels may paint a more complete picture of their capabilities.

Boise State is the rightful favorite to win the conference — though it’s +125 (i.e. risking $100 to win $125) at Circa is awfully low —  but the gap between the Broncos and the Rebels is too large. Give me UNLV at 8-to-1 at Circa to win the first Mountain West title in school history with a $200 bet to win $1,600.

Boise State faces an extremely difficult task in trying to win the conference in back-to-back years, as history can attest. Only one team has pulled it off in the conference’s current iteration — San Diego State in 2015 and 2016.

UNLV importantly gets this year’s game with Boise State at home, on Oct. 25, and has a manageable schedule elsewhere.

The hometown team was an obvious choice to fulfill last week’s promise of at least one football bet in Weekend Wagers the rest of the way. The 8-to-1 price tag is also fitting for what turned out to be a long shot heavy betting week in all the sports currently going too.

Find all of those bets, in seven more sports, below. Odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas at publication time with the sports book noted. Plays outside of the column will be linked and tracked in the record at the bottom of the page.

Golf (5-5, $440): Luke Clanton to finish in the top 10 at ISCO Championship at +220 (Caesars/William Hill)

$100 to win $220

The Florida State University student-athlete and world’s second-ranked amateur is soaring on the PGA Tour, having finished in the top 10 in back-to-back weeks. He should be set to make it three straight this weekend in Kentucky. Clanton went off as the prohibitive pretournament favorite when bettors steamed him down from as high as 14-to-1 to as low as 8-to-1. The closing line was probably too low, but the opener was more clearly too high. And his in-tournament live odds now seem more based on the opening number. Clanton sits only four strokes out of the top 10 going into today's round but has a significant skill advantage over almost everyone higher than him on the leaderboard. He struggled Thursday but found his rhythm late in Friday’s round with birdies on four of his final five holes. Expect more of that form the rest of the way.   

WNBA (3-2, $50): Los Angeles Sparks +3.5 at Dallas Wings (Caesars/William Hill)

$220 to win $200

These are the two worst teams in the WNBA at the moment, largely because of injuries. A game between the two worst teams should never have this high of a line. Dallas should be a 2.5-point favorite, maximum. The Wings have failed to cover in six straight games, only winning one of the contests outright, and also lost to the Sparks 81-72 in June when the teams were closer to full strength. They’re completely overmatched on defense, to the point that an even an anemic offense like the Sparks’ should be able to get on track. There’s a lot of variance in games between two teams this poor, and in games with a lot of variance, it’s typically wiser to take the points.  

NBA (7-4, $2,030): Washington Wizards to win NBA Las Vegas Summer League at 25-to-1 (STN Sports)

$80 to win $2,000

Let’s be real: This is a shot in the dark. Any NBA Summer League future bet inherently fits that description, however, so bettors might as well find a promising team at the big payout. This might be the first time in years anyone has referred to the Wizards as “a promising team” but their Summer League roster is chock full of experience with players like Johnny Davis, Justin Champagnie and Patrick Baldwin. Oh, and the overall No. 2 pick Alexandre Sarr, whom many rated as the best player in the 2023 NBA Draft class. The Wizards also have a manageable schedule, especially if they can knock off the Rockets in their opening game Sunday night. I’m shooting for the Sarr with this one.   

MLB (4-7, -$946): New York Yankees +120 at Baltimore Orioles (STN Sports)

$200 to win $240

My stubbornness may cost me but I’m still convinced the Yankees are a better team than the Orioles despite being mired in the downturn of all downturns. The Yankees haven’t won a series in a month, but that should change in a high-leverage divisional showdown this week. This is admittedly the toughest spot of the three-game set for New York with rookie Luis Gil squaring off with Cy Young candidate Grayson Rodriguez but the line still feels a bit wide. Gil had a few rough starts recently but looked back on point in a loss to the Red Sox on Sunday. He’s not as trustworthy as Rodriguez but also not at as much of a disadvantage as this line suggests.

UFC (4-10, -$886): Tracy Cortez +195 vs. Rose Namajunas at UFC Fight Night (Caesars/William Hill)

$100 to win $195

Namajunas is one of the best women fighters in the history of the UFC, but also one of the most inconsistent. That makes laying more than -200 with her out of the question, especially at her new, heavier-than-natural flyweight division. Namajunas is 1-1 since moving up but Cortez might be better positioned to bully the former champion with her size than the two previous opponents.  The only concern is Cortez taking this fight on short notice after Maycee Barber pulled out with health problems two weeks ago. But Cortez was already training, and because of the difficult circumstances, the line is at least 20 cents higher than it would in any other scenario. It’s high enough to make it worth taking a shot with a younger fighter in a stylistically advantageous setup.  

NASCAR (5-14, -$300): Tyler Reddick to finish in the top 3 of the Great American Getaway 400 at +340 (Boyd Sports)

$200 to win $680

Reddick came oh-so-close to cashing last week’s outright on him in the Chicago street course race. He might have chased down eventual winner Alex Bowman if he didn’t graze the wall in one of the final turns, or surely if NASCAR could have let the race run a few more laps instead of setting a curfew. Oh well. Let’s go right back to him. He doesn’t have a win to show for it, but Reddick has been one of the fastest cars in the Cup series over the last month. That should bode well at Pocono, where he’s finished second in back-to-back years. There’s value on Reddick to win outright at 10-to-1 too but this top-three price is even better. I’d make him closer to 2-to-1 than 3-to-1 to finish in the top three.

Euros 2024 (2-2, $30): England to lift the Euros 2024 trophy at +135 (Wynn)

$200 to win $270

The Three Lions are on the brink of ending a 58-year drought without winning a major trophy. I think they pull it off. Yes, Spain has been better as far as the tournament as a whole but it’s looked much more human in its last two matches — wins over Germany and France. Spain narrowly lost the expected goals battle in each of those victories. England hasn’t looked terribly convincing but its best two matches from an underlying-statistical perspective have come in the last two, escapes over Netherlands and Switzerland. That should have been enough to pull this line at least a bit closer to where it would have been pretournament. England would have undoubtedly been a favorite a month ago. Adjusting for the all action so far should land this about a pick’em. A plus-price this big is an overreaction.   

2024 Weekend betting column: 70-71, $7,007.87

Weekend betting column all-time: 728-778-11, $38,288.87 

Previous pending wagers: Oregon -1.5 -102 vs. Ohio State in Week 7 ($306 to win $300); New York Yankees to win World Series ($300 to win $3,000); Christopher Bell to win NASCAR Cup championship at 12-to-1 ($200 to win $2,400); Patrick Mahomes to win 2024-2025 NFL MVP at +750 ($350 to win $2,625); Kansas City Chiefs to win Super Bowl 59 at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700); New York Liberty to win WNBA Championship at +250 ($500 to win $1,250); Inter Miami to win MLS Cup at +300 ($500 to win $1,500); Tarik Skubal to win American League Cy Young at 20-to-1 ($120 to win $2,400); Cole Ragans to win American League Cy Young at 35-to-1 ($70 to win $2,450); Los Angeles Chargers -3 -120 vs. Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1 ($220 to win $200); Portugal to win Euro 2024 at +750 ($200 to win $1,500); Xander Schauffele to win The Open Championship at 16-to-1 ($180 to win $2,880); Collin Morikawa to win The Open Championship at 24-to-1 ($120 to win $2,880); New Jersey Devils to win Stanley Cup Final at 16-to-1 ($250 to win $4,000); Reed Sheppard to win NBA Rookie of the Year at 11-to-1 ($200 to win $2,200); Dillon Gabriel to win the Heisman Trophy at 14-to-1 ($200 to win $2,800); Dave Canales to win NFL Coach of the Year at 20-to-1 ($100 to win $2,000); Carolina Hurricanes to win President's Trophy at 15-to-1 ($150 to win $2,250); Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to win NBA MVP ($300 to win $1,800)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or