Weekend wagers: Five bets to make on five sports

All hail Xander Schauffele, the patron saint of Weekend Wagers’ bankroll.

Schauffele did what so many others could not last weekend in taming Royal Troon to win the Open Championship, his second major victory of the year. This column cashed in on both of them, though becoming the Champion Golfer of the Year last week was the more lucrative victory after locking Schauffele in at pre-tournament odds of 16-to-1.  

The $2,760 victory return was the biggest of the year so far in Weekend Wagers and has golf threatening to overtake hockey as the most profitable endeavor of 2024 in this space.

And golf isn’t anywhere near over, even though major season now may be in the past.

Some big events are still to come with the Olympic tournament taking place next week at Le Golf National just Southwest of Paris before the PGA Tour’s FedEx Cup Playoffs get going.

I’m not a big Olympic bettor, but I will dabble in the sports I already handicap. I placed one Olympic golf bet in Weekend Wagers last week, and have one more to share as part of this week’s five plays below.

Find all of this week’s wagers below. Odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas at publication time with the sports book noted. Plays outside of the column will be linked and tracked in the record at the bottom of the page.

MLB (5-8, -$906): San Francisco Giants -198 vs. Colorado Rockies (Boyd Sports)

$396 to win $200

There was not much on the overnight baseball board at publication time, and this was left as the play where I showed the most value, by far. I priced the Giants closer to around -225 in this first game of a doubleheader with Blake Snell on the mound against Ryan Feltner. That pitching matchup is a mismatch. Snell hasn't been strong this year overall, but he's beginning to regain some of the form that led him to Cy Young award victory lately. He's been excellent in his last three starts since returning from an injured list. The Giants' offense has been more of an issue, but facing Feltner should give them an opportunity to get on track. Colorado has actually played pretty well with back-to-back series wins, including at home against San Francisco, but that should be short-lived. This is a bet-against team for the rest of the year, even at big prices.

UFC (6-10, -$786): Paddy Pimblett Even money vs. Bobby Green at UFC 304 (Circa Sports)

$200 to win $200

The pendulum has swung too far on Pimblett. Once considered an intriguing prospect, sentiment on “The Baddy” has soured despite a 5-0 start in the UFC because of the unconvincing nature of his last wins. But the Englishman is eight years younger than Green, who sure has seen his own stock rise with three wins in his last four fights. The positivity on Green might be overblown considering two of those victories were against now 40-year-olds in Jim Miller and Tony Ferguson (whom Pimblett also beat). This might be a close fight, but Pimblett is going to have the backing of the crowd and that could make for biased scorecards. It’s something we’ve seen in the UFC before. But that might not even matter as Pimblett is more likely to have another level to reach while Green’s profile as a tough but flawed veteran is now pretty apparent.    

Golf (6-7, $2,980): Jon Rahm at 15-to-1 to win Olympics gold medal (Boyd Sports)

$140 to win $2,100

It hasn’t been the easiest year for the former World No. 1 golfer, but he’s back now. He talked about feeling better last week at The Open Championship, and then showed it by finishing tied for seventh despite getting the worst of the weather split. On Friday, he went out for the first round of LIV United Kingdom and posted an 8-under for a two-shot lead. He’s probably going to prevail and send the Olympic number crashing. In fact, let’s lock in a bonus bet on Rahm to win LIV United Kingdom at +160 (risking $300 to win $480) at BetMGM. Rahm has two top 10 finishes in two career tournaments at Le Golf National, and is always motivated to play for his native Spain. His outright odds should arguably never get this high in a short-field event like the Olympics, but they certainly shouldn’t with the form he’s suddenly flashing.

College football (0-0, $0): Florida State to win the ACC at 3-to-1 (Circa Sports) and SMU to win the ACC at 16-to-1 (STN Sports)

$315 to win $945 on Florida State, $75 to win $1,200 on SMU

The future odds on most of the power conferences are tight, but the ACC is the one league where there might be some value. That starts at the top, where any statistical evidence would indicate the Seminoles should be lower priced. Sure, they probably aren’t going to be as strong as last year’s undefeated conference champions but the overall talent still hovers above the other competitors — especially with Clemson’s stubborn aversion to using the transfer portal. Florida State is stacked in the trenches, and that should help it outmuscle everyone in its way. SMU might be one of the only teams on Florida State’s schedule that can hold its own. The defending AAC champions are more ready for major conference college football than some may realize, especially after drawing arguably the ACC’s weakest schedule. Returning quarterback Preston Stone should put up big numbers. The Mustangs are dangerous.   

NFL (0-0, $0): New Orleans Saints to win the NFC South at +425 (Caesars/William Hill)

$200 to win $950

I get it, the coach/quarterback duo of Dennis Allen and Derek Carr doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence. But the market’s aversion to backing the perennial underachievers has resulted in an outrageous price. From a talent perspective, the Saints are neck-in-neck with the Atlanta Falcons for the best roster in the division. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers aren’t far behind but they should be taking a step back after the departure of offensive coordinator Dave Canales to the head job with the Carolina Panthers. The Saints’ scoring margin was 52 points than the division-champion Buccaneers’ last year, and a staggering 154 points better than the current odds-on favorite Falcons. That’s a big gap to make up in one offseason. The Saints might still be the best team in the NFC South.    

2024 Weekend betting column: 74-77, $9,087.87

Weekend betting column al time: 734-786-11, $40,488.87

Previous pending wagers: Oregon -1.5 -102 vs. Ohio State in Week 7 ($306 to win $300); New York Yankees to win World Series ($300 to win $3,000); Christopher Bell to win NASCAR Cup championship at 12-to-1 ($200 to win $2,400); Patrick Mahomes to win 2024-2025 NFL MVP at +750 ($350 to win $2,625); Kansas City Chiefs to win Super Bowl 59 at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700); New York Liberty to win WNBA Championship at +250 ($500 to win $1,250); Inter Miami to win MLS Cup at +300 ($500 to win $1,500); Tarik Skubal to win American League Cy Young at 20-to-1 ($120 to win $2,400); Cole Ragans to win American League Cy Young at 35-to-1 ($70 to win $2,450); Los Angeles Chargers -3 -120 vs. Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1 ($220 to win $200); New Jersey Devils to win Stanley Cup Final at 16-to-1 ($250 to win $4,000); Reed Sheppard to win NBA Rookie of the Year at 11-to-1 ($200 to win $2,200); Dillon Gabriel to win the Heisman Trophy at 14-to-1 ($200 to win $2,800); Dave Canales to win NFL Coach of the Year at 20-to-1 ($100 to win $2,000); Carolina Hurricanes to win President's Trophy at 15-to-1 ($150 to win $2,250); Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to win NBA MVP ($300 to win $1,800); UNLV football to win the Mountain West at 8-to-1 ($200 to win $1,600)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or