Weekend wagers: Eight bets to make on seven sports

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, June 1, 2024 | 2 a.m.

Sports betting’s legalized, nationwide expansion and subsequent popularity boom over the last six years has resulted in the emergence of some niche markets becoming more widespread.

One of the best examples takes prominence in sports books over the next month — the NCAA men’s college baseball tournament. Regionals for the 64 teams who made the field began Friday and run through Monday, while super regionals for the final 16 are next weekend before the elite eight meet in Omaha, Neb., beginning June 14.

No, it’s not getting the betting volume of the NCAA basketball tournament or anything, but lines on every game are posted at pretty much every sportsbook. That’s a big change from as recently as a few years ago when odds at least on regional games were few and far between.

The spots that did go through the trouble of listing them usually did so at the last minute.

I have my rooting interest in Weekend Wagers with future wagers on No. 3 overall seed Texas A&M and floundering Wake Forest (which lost to VCU yesterday).

Unfortunately, fitting in any games was out of the question for this week’s column. The fluidity of the brackets means matchups aren’t set in time to bet overnight and include in this space.

Maybe in the next couple weeks. Luckily for now, there’s plenty else to bet while hoping the Aggies roll in the meantime.

Read below for eight bets on seven sports coming off a profitable last weekend. Odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas at publication time with the sports book noted. Plays outside of the column will be linked and tracked in the record at the bottom of the page.

MLB (2-3, -$354): Washington Nationals +136 vs. Cleveland Guardians (Boyd Sports)

$150 to win $204

This line is a little high. Sometimes, oftentimes really, a bet is that simple. I make the Nationals about a +115 underdog today at Progressive Field, meaning this is my biggest edge among the opening numbers on Saturday’s slate. The Guardians have been one of the best teams in baseball this year, but the Nationals have surprisingly also been one of the best teams to bet. The market just hasn’t caught up to how improved the young Nationals have been, and I count myself among those who have been burned by them. No more. At least not today. Young starting pitcher Mitchell Parker has good stuff and should be able to hold the Guardians at bay enough to give the Nationals a strong shot at an upset victory    

NHL (6-3, $650): Sam Reinhart Anytime Goal Scorer in Game 6 vs. New York Rangers at +140 (BetMGM)

$200 to win $280

The Panthers should close out the Rangers today at Amerant Bank Arena to reach the Stanley Cup Final for the second straight year. At least that’s what I’m hoping with a future position in the back of my mind. But it’s also what I truly believe, and if that’s the case, then their best goal-scorer has a strong probability of getting on the board. Reinhart has three goals in the series, but he’s played well enough to have scored even more often than that. There isn’t some huge value here, but Reinhart should probably be more around +125 to score. With the major markets tightening this late into the playoffs, let’s fire on a goal prop for the second week in a row and hope to cash one this time around.  

UFC (2-7, -$986): Jailton Almeida to win by stoppage vs. Alexander Romanov -140 at UFC 302 (BetMGM)

$280 to win $200

The discrepancy between the Brazilian grappler’s moneyline (-330) and his price to finish is far too wide. Almeida is likely to bounce back from the first loss of his UFC career, a knockout to Curtis Blaydes earlier this year, and stop Romanov in short order. Almeida will look for a submission first, but Romanov also has an unreliable chin and could get clipped for a knockout loss as well. Might as well pay up and get both methods of victory. Almeida could one day be a top contender at the heavyweight division, and these odds aren’t giving him enough credit.  

UFL (4-1, $730): Houston Roughnecks -1.5 vs. Memphis Showboats (South Point)

$220 to win $200

It’s the last weekend of the UFL regular season and I, for one, will miss it if only for losing the chance to weekly bet against the Showboats. They’ve been outscored by 109 points in nine games and outgained by two yards per play. The Roughnecks aren’t exactly the Patrick Mahomes-led Kansas City Chiefs themselves with an identical 1-8 record to the Showboats. Memphis even beat Houston in Week 1, 18-12. But that result was largely turnover-aided and not all that predictive going forward with how the rest of the season has played out. Houston might be the second worst team in the league, but Memphis is comfortably in last place. This number should be more like Houston -5.

NASCAR (2-9, -$220): Christopher Bell head-to-head vs. Chase Elliott at -110 in Enjoy Illinois 300 (SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas)

$220 to win $200

Yes, I was on Elliott a week ago in the stopped-too-soon Coca-Cola 600 but Charlotte Motor Speedway is nothing like St. Louis’ Gateway Motorsports Park. NASCAR is on a short, flat track this week, and Bell has been much better on these types of setups than Elliott. The 29-year-old Joe Gibbs Racing driver should be revitalized after his Coca-Cola 600 win, controversial as it may be, and ready to fight for the future we placed on him. He might not win this week, but he should at least be right around the top five. That’s a better forecast than Elliott.  

NASCAR (2-9, -$220): Joey Logano to win Enjoy Illinois 300 at 18-to-1 (South Point)

$80 to win $1,440

Here’s a last-minute outright addition, because why not? Logano has trimmed at most other sportsbooks, but South Point is still hanging a price where there’s slight value. It’s not been a smooth season for the 2022 NASCAR Cup champion, but brighter days should be ahead. Logano blazed past the competition in the All-Star Race and North Wilkesboro Speedway two weeks ago. Most are probably writing that performance off as an exhibition win, and that would usually be wise, but maybe not in this case. It showed Penske Racing is headed in the right direction. While North Wilkesboro may not hold much correlation with Gateway, there is some link. Logano traditionally shows up on tracks like this.   

NBA (7-2, $2,750): Boston Celtics -1.5 games in NBA Finals at Even money vs. Dallas Mavericks (Caesars/William Hill)

$300 to win $300

I’ve bet the Celtics -2.5 in every series so far but will get a little more conservative with the NBA Finals. I don’t know if it’s necessary though. Boston shouldn’t have much trouble with Dallas despite consensus being on the contrary. The Celtics were volumes better than the Mavericks in the regular season, outscoring them by 37 points in a pair of games. While that hasn’t been true in the postseason, the Celtics have been dealing with something the Mavericks haven’t — a key injury. Kristaps Porzingis hasn’t played since the fourth game of the postseason, and his return looms large against his former team in the Mavericks. Boston’s perimeter defense should give Dallas fits, and it should win the series in five games. It’s fine to take a shot with Boston -2.5 at +195, but I’ll give myself an extra game to work with at Even money.

Golf (4-4, $640): Scottie Scheffler to win the US Open at +450 (SuperBook)

$400 to win $1,800

I’m not proud of laying this small of a price on a major, but the more I think about it, it’s unavoidable. And the odds are unlikely to get any better. Pinehurst 2, which will host this year's U.S. Open, is the type of course the No. 1 golfer in the world should be able to separate himself on. Problem is, the same is true of next week’s signature event, the Memorial in Dublin, Ohio. Scheffler should be in contention at “Jack’s place” and that makes these odds more likely to trim than inflate going into golf’s third major. As well as Scheffler is playing, it should be considered a surprise if he doesn’t nab two majors this season. He’s already claimed the Masters, and the U.S. Open should set up better for him than July’s Open Championship.  

2024 Weekend betting column: 49-49, $5,974.87

Weekend betting column all-time: 707-756-11, $37,255.87

Previous pending wagers: Edmonton Oilers to win 2024 Stanley Cup Final at 12-to-1 ($250 to win $3,000); Oregon -1.5 -102 vs. Ohio State in Week 7 ($306 to win $300); Florida Panthers to win Stanley Cup at 10-to-1 ($250 to win $2,500); New York Yankees to win World Series ($300 to win $3,000); Christopher Bell to win NASCAR Cup championship at 12-to-1 ($200 to win $2,400); Patrick Mahomes to win 2024-2025 NFL MVP at +750 ($350 to win $2,625); Kansas City Chiefs to win Super Bowl 59 at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700); New York Liberty to win WNBA Championship at +250 ($500 to win $1,250); Inter Miami to win MLS Cup at +300 ($500 to win $1,500); Tarik Skubal to win American League Cy Young at 20-to-1 ($120 to win $2,400); Cole Ragans to win American League Cy Young at 35-to-1 ($70 to win $2,450); Wake Forest to win the College World Series at 25-to-1 ($100 to win $2,500); Jayson Tatum to win NBA Finals MVP at +260 ($500 to win $1,300); Texas A&M to win the College World Series at 6-to-1 ($350 to win $2,100); Los Angeles Chargers -3 -120 vs. Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1 ($220 to win $200)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or