Weekend wagers: Six bets on six different sports

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, June 22, 2024 | 2 a.m.

The plan was to kick off this edition of Weekend Wagers with an arbitrage of my future bet on Texas A&M to win the College World Series.

That’s not happening anymore. The price isn’t nearly enticing enough.

Tennessee sits as a -200 (i.e. risking $200 to win $100) favorite to beat Texas A&M in the College World Series when the best-of-three championship series begins at 4:30 p.m. tonight in Omaha, Neb.  

That’s shot up since Wednesday night when the matchup was first set and at least one rouge book posted Tennessee as a -140 favorite to beat Texas A&M. That was too low and would have made for an easy hedge on the column’s 6-to-1 futures position on Texas A&M.

I think Tennessee ultimately wins and snaps the quarter-century curse of an overall No. 1 seed not winning the national championship. But I also think the Volunteers’ probability of doing so is more in line with the implied 58% probability at the opening price than the 66% the market is indicating now.

Tonight’s Game 1 is going to be especially tough for Tennessee with Texas A&M starting Ace southpaw Ryan Prager. Maybe the right move is to hope for an Aggies’ win, and then come back with a bet on the Volunteers to win the next two.  

Because I can’t bear to have a championship event available for the column to cover and not bet it, let’s kick off today’s wagers with one on the College World Series — Texas A&M at +1.5 -125 on the run line against Tennessee in Game 1 with $125 to win $100.

Tennessee might be the better team in its current form, but the prices on the game aren’t giving Prager enough credit.

Read below for bets on five more sports. Odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas at publication time with the sports book noted. Plays outside of the column will be linked and tracked in the record at the bottom of the page.

Euro 2024 (0-0, $0): Belgium to win Group F at +250 (BetMGM)

$100 to win $250

Belgium had no business losing to Slovakia to start its Euros journey in a game where it dominated by every other measure except the 1-0 final score. To many, it was another sign that Lukaku and Co. are bound to disappoint on the international level. But I think it’s far more likely Belgium atones for the loss and still winds up being somewhat of a factor during the Knockout Stage. Ukraine knocked off Slovakia yesterday morning to open the door wide open for Belgium to still win the group. It will now just need a strong result against both Romania today and Ukraine on Wednesday — something it’s not only capable of but will be favored to do. This line only trimmed from +275 to +250 after the Ukraine result, and that’s not enough.  

UFC (4-8, -$786): Volkan Oezdemir -105 vs. Johnny Walker at UFC: Saudi Arabia (STN Sports)

$210 to win $200

Walker’s potential continues to tantalize. His performances continue to underwhelm. It might be harsh but it’s safe to say now that the ultra-athletic, one-time golden prospect is never going to be fighting at a championship level in the light heavyweight division. He should be a clear underdog to anyone in the upper reaches of the weight class, especially one with knockout power to test his shaky chin. Oezdemir checks both boxes. There’s a good chance he takes Walker out early in today’s main-card opener on ABC, but even if not, his strength and consistency should make him a favorite to win a decision.  

MLB (2-6, -$1,094): Cleveland Guardians -120 vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Boyd Sports)

$240 to win $200

Baseball betting has delivered blow after blow in the column this year, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s early exit last Saturday just the latest bad break to the bottom line. I’ll seek some salvation with an old-faithful team. The Guardians have been extremely trustworthy from a betting perspective all year, returning more profit than any other team in the league. I don’t think it’s bound to stop. They’re suddenly hitting extremely well to complement a pitching staff that was already playing well. Toronto starter Jose Berrios, meanwhile, has been overvalued all season. Cleveland’s Ben Lively is nothing special but he's a wash at best with Berrios. With Cleveland playing at home and having been the much better team this season, it should be around a -140 favorite and more in the range of where it opened at other sportsbooks.  

NASCAR (4-11, -$100): Martin Truex Jr. -110 head-to-head vs. Denny Hamlin in USA Today 301 (SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas)

$220 to win $200

Truex has lapped the field at New Hampshire Motor Speedway over the years. He’s been so much faster than everyone else in the Cup series that he should be favored in a head-to-head matchup against anyone save for perhaps Christopher Bell, who has dominated short, flat tracks this year. That group obviously includes his teammate Hamlin. The New Jersey native announced his retirement at the end of this season last week, and will be looking to go out on a high at what he considers his home track. Based on all available evidence — especially since NASCAR introduced its Next Gen car two years ago — he should be in position to do it.

Golf (5-5, $440): Xander Schauffele to win The Open Championship at 16-to-1 (SuperBook) and Collin Morikawa to win The Open Championship at 24-to-1 (STN Sports)

$180 to win $2,880 on Schauffele and $120 to win $2,880 on Morikawa

Both Schauffele and Morikawa are in contention this weekend at the Travelers Championship, the PGA Tour’s last signature event before the final major of the year. There’s a good chance one of them prevails at TPC River Highlands and sends their price in the Open Championship crashing down. I’m just struggling to determine who’s more likely to win. Schauffele is more dependable and has put together the stronger year including a PGA Championship win but Morikawa has one stroke lead. Both have a history of playing well at links courses, including Morikawa’s notable 2021 Open Championship victory, and profile as fits for Royal Troon, this year’s venue. Both prices are too high, making this an ideal duo to start an Open Championship portfolio backing.  

2024 Weekend betting column: 60-61, $5,149.87

Weekend betting column all-time: 718-768-11, $36,430.87 

Previous pending wagers: Edmonton Oilers to win 2024 Stanley Cup Final at 12-to-1 ($250 to win $3,000); Oregon -1.5 -102 vs. Ohio State in Week 7 ($306 to win $300); Florida Panthers to win Stanley Cup at 10-to-1 ($250 to win $2,500); New York Yankees to win World Series ($300 to win $3,000); Christopher Bell to win NASCAR Cup championship at 12-to-1 ($200 to win $2,400); Patrick Mahomes to win 2024-2025 NFL MVP at +750 ($350 to win $2,625); Kansas City Chiefs to win Super Bowl 59 at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700); New York Liberty to win WNBA Championship at +250 ($500 to win $1,250); Inter Miami to win MLS Cup at +300 ($500 to win $1,500); Tarik Skubal to win American League Cy Young at 20-to-1 ($120 to win $2,400); Cole Ragans to win American League Cy Young at 35-to-1 ($70 to win $2,450); Wake Forest to win the College World Series at 25-to-1 ($100 to win $2,500); Texas A&M to win the College World Series at 6-to-1 ($350 to win $2,100); Los Angeles Chargers -3 -120 vs. Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1 ($220 to win $200); Portugal to win Euro 2024 at +750 ($200 to win $1,500)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or