Weekend wagers: Ten bets to make including four on March Madness

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, March 16, 2024 | 2 a.m.

Selection Sunday is a day away, but the March Madness marathon is already well underway in Las Vegas sports books.

Conference tournament week brings an even more jam-packed schedule than its big brother, the NCAA Tournament, does — especially for serious bettors. Most will say there’s better moneymaking opportunities this week than a few days from now when the stakes are amped up and the crowds arrive.

The wall-to-wall slate of games from the last three days diminishes leading up to the selection show this weekend, but there’s still a few places left to extract some value before the big dance. That’s where Weekend Wagers will focus this weekend, with four college basketball bets that can hopefully spur a bounce-back effort after last week’s slight losing outing.

Read on for this week’s version of the weekend wagers column. Odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas at publication time with the sports book noted. Each sport has its own record with year-to-date performance tracked. Plays outside the column will be linked and tracked in the record at the bottom of the page.

Golf (0-2, -$252): Matthew Fitzpatrick Even money vs. Wyndham Clark head-to-head in third round of The Players Championship (Circa Sports)

$200 to win $200

I was debating including a pro-Fitzpatrick bet — a -125 price on him to finish in the top 10 — or an anti-Clark position — a -200 price on him not to win golf’s, “fifth major.” Then Circa released its third-round matchups, and voila, provided an opportunity to address both desires in one fell swoop. The prices on Fitzpatrick right now are straight disrespectful. Sure, he wasn’t playing his best coming into The Players but this is a 2022 U.S. Open champion whose game is tailor made for TPC Sawgrass. Clark is on much better overall form, but his five-stroke lead through two rounds comes mostly from lapping the field in putting. The most recent U.S. Open champion is a good putter but he’s not that good. And his inaccuracy off the tee might be his undoing this weekend.    

College basketball (3-1, $550): Vermont -6.5 vs. UMass Lowell in American East Championship Game (Caesars/William Hill)

$220 to win $200

What a treat to be able to sneak in a couple conference tournament championship bets for the second straight edition of Weekend Wagers. I lived up to my vow in last week’s column to place a future on most of the tournaments, but the America East was one I skipped. The reason? Vermont looked too far ahead of everyone. The Catamounts were around -250 at most sports books to prevail, and they’re now only marginally higher than that with one game to go. It’s too low. Vermont is now healthier than it’s been most of the season, and has owned the series against Lowell with four straight victories. The Catamounts should have a lot to celebrate in their home gym this morning.  

College basketball (3-1, $550): Yale to win the Ivy League Tournament at +235 (SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas)

$200 to win $470

Princeton is the Even money favorite to win the final conference tournament tipping off this morning, but nothing comes close to indicating it’s that much better than Cornell or certainly not Yale. The Tigers do get to play the relatively weak Brown Bears first while Yale and Cornell must slug it out for their right to get to the championship. Still, the price on Princeton is too prohibitive. Yale was expected to be the best team in the Ivy this year, and priors still hold a lot more predictive value than many may realize this late into the season. The Bulldogs split the two meetings with the Tigers on the season, and probably have the slightly more talented roster. I favor Yale to win both games, making this price attractive enough to attack.

College basketball: Purdue to make the Final Four at +220 (Caesars/William Hill)

$250 to win $550

Regardless of how the Big Ten tournament plays out over the next two days, it looks like the Boilermakers are going to catch a break with their bracket position in the big dance. They’re virtually ensured of the No. 1 seed in the Midwest Region, meaning they’ll get to stick close to home, and more importantly, avoid the scariest No. 2 seeds. North Carolina, Arizona and Tennessee — the three teams vying for the final No. 1 — would all likely be placed in a different bracket geographically as a No. 2 seed. If that happens, Purdue will be about Even money to get out of its region in a few days. This number feels like a big overreaction to a knee hyperextension of point guard Braden Smith, who may miss the rest of the Big Ten event but will be back for the NCAA Tournament.    

College basketball (3-1, $550): Duquense pick’em vs. St. Bonaventure (Circa Sports)

$220 to win $200

The Atlantic 10 conference tournament created a lot of carnage, leaving the No. 5 seed, No. 6 seed, No. 7 seed and No. 9 seed as the final four. The team that would be least surprising to still be alive dating back to the beginning of the season? No. 6 seed Duquense. This was supposed to be the year the Dukes competed at the top of the Atlantic 10 with a veteran roster that shoots well and plays a hellacious defense. They didn’t live up to expectations in an up-and-down regular season but the potential is starting to show in the postseason. Duquense rather easily dispatched No. 1 seed Dayton on Thursday. It also already beat St. Bonaventure twice earlier this season. Considering the Dukes have the better roster and a plus-matchup, this number should be -2.5 instead of pick’em.  

NBA (2-0, $500): Philadelphia 76ers -9.5 -112 vs. Charlotte Hornets (Boyd Sports)

$224 to win $200

The 76ers badly need to find some rhythm and get back on track. The lowly Hornets arrive in town just in time. Charlotte is playing hard but its roster is an abomination, so much so that it felt like I was stealing when it came through with a cash for the column last week. Behind Most Improved Player of the Year award leader Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia should still have enough to stay afloat without reigning MVP Joel Embiid. That hasn’t happened yet but I haven’t lost all faith. Philadelphia can find it. Maybe a climb starts today.   

NHL (2-1, $200): Edmonton Oilers -125 vs. Colorado Avalanche (BetMGM)

$250 to win $200

Let’s go to the game of the day on the ice, a welcomed change when I’ve largely been living in the dregs of the NHL and NBA in the column. The Avalanche are one of the hottest teams in the league with five straight wins but they’re still pretty beaten-up and not playing quite as well as the results indicate. Two of their last three wins took overtime in games where they were favored. Edmonton is a cut above, even if it’s lost two of four against overmatched teams. Both teams should be on their best form in a potential Western Conference Final preview today. And, on their best form, the Oilers are better than anyone in the conference.

UFC (0-3, -$706): Macy Chiasson to win via decision vs. Pannie Kianzad at UFC Fight Night at +105 (STN Sports)

$200 to win $210

These method-of-victory bets have been killing me in the column, but stubbornly and undeterred, I’ll move forward with two more today. These two fought six years ago for “The Ultimate Fighter” 28 title, and Chiasson submitted Kianzad via second-round rear-naked choke. But the striker Kianzad has become more well-rounded since then and should have better submission defense. She’s still going to get taken down, though. And that makes a Chiasson decision far and away the most likely result of this women’s bantamweight clash. It’s priced at -110 or -115 at most other sports books. That’ still slight value, but the plus price on Chiasson grinding out Kianzad makes this prop a must-take.

UFC (0-3, -$706): Tai Tuivasa to win via knockout vs. Marcin Tybura at UFC Fight Night at +105 (Boyd Sports)

$200 to win $210

If the fan-favorite New Zealander Tuivasa breaks his three-fight losing streak and wins in tonight’s main event, it’s going to be by knockout. There’s no reason for there to be any gap between his win price (-110) and his knockout price. Tuivasa is a heavy hitter and Tybura has a shaky chin. Stage this fight a couple years ago, and Tuivasa is probably pushing beyond a -200 favorite. I’ve often faded Tuivasa — especially and regrettably when he was on his win streak — but am now inclined to buy the dip in his market rating. He’s eight years younger than Tybura and has a clear path to victory with his hands.

NASCAR (0-4, -$720): Christopher Bell to win the Food City 500 at 6-to-1 (South Point) and Ryan Blaney to win the Food City 500 at 14-to-1 (Circa Sports)

$150 to win $900 on Bell and $70 to win $980 on Blaney

I’m going to try to outrace the deficit I’ve built in NASCAR so far this year by hitting an outright in this weekend’s Bristol race. Bell blitzed the competition last week in Phoenix with one of the most lopsided wins the circuit will see all year, and he may easily have the fastest car again this week on the other side of the country. He certainly did in last year’s Bristol race despite ultimately finishing in third. Last year’s champion Blaney has been one of the fastest drivers this young season too, and Bristol is one of his best tracks. The 14-to-1 price is so inflated that I can’t help but to take a nibble on Weekend Wagers’ favorite, and certainly winningest, driver.

2024 Weekend betting column: 22-22, $712.87

Weekend betting column all-time: 680-729-11, $31,993.87 

Previous pending wagers: Kansas to win 2024 NCAA Tournament at 14-to-1 ($200 to win $2,800); Edmonton Oilers to win 2024 Stanley Cup Final at 12-to-1 ($250 to win $3,000); Cleveland Cavaliers to win Central division at 3-to-1 ($300 to win $900); Victor Wembanyama to win NBA Rookie of the Year at +125 ($400 to win $500); Rudy Gobert to win NBA Defensive Player of the Year at 5-to-1 ($300 to win $1,500); South Carolina women's basketball to win NCAA Tournament at +450 ($400 to win $1,800); Oregon -1.5 -102 vs. Ohio State in Week 7 ($306 to win $300); Arizona to win NCAA Tournament at 12-to-1 ($200 to win $2,400); Xander Schauffele to win the Masters ($100 to win $2,800); Los Angeles Clippers to finish with Western Conference No. 1 seed ($200 to win $520); Florida Panthers to win Stanley Cup at 10-to-1 ($250 to win $2,500); New York Yankees to win World Series ($300 to win $3,000); Christopher Bell to win NASCAR Cup championship at 12-to-1 ($200 to win $2,400); Patrick Mahomes to win 2024-2025 NFL MVP at +750 ($350 to win $2,625); Kansas City Chiefs to win Super Bowl 59 at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700); New York Liberty to win WNBA Championship at +250 ($500 to win $1,250); Inter Miami to win MLS Cup at +300 ($500 to win $1,500); Tarik Skubal to win American League Cy Young at 20-to-1 ($120 to win $2,400); Cole Ragans to win American League Cy Young at 35-to-1 ($70 to win $2,450)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or