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Arizona guard Caleb Love (2) celebrates after a play against Southern California during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game in the quarterfinal round of the Pac-12 tournament Thursday, March 14, 2024, at T-Mobile Arena.
Published Tuesday, March 19, 2024 | 2 a.m.
Updated Wednesday, March 20, 2024 | 9:06 a.m.
Note: For the 12th straight time dating back to 2012, Talking Points will be handicapping every NCAA Tournament game against the spread. This is the first entry of a four-part series previewing all the initial regions and games. Check back over the next two days for the final three installments.
Shootouts appropriately seem to be what will ultimately settle the wild-looking West Region this year.
Nine teams rated in the nation’s top 50 for the highest adjusted tempo, per kenpom.com, wound up in this year’s NCAA Tournament. Five of them fall in the West including most of the primary contenders to reach the Final Four — No. 1 seed North Carolina, No. 2 seed Arizona, No. 4 seed Alabama, No. 11 seed New Mexico and No. 15 seed Long Beach State.
The Crimson Tide spent virtually the entire season with the highest-scoring offense in the nation and head into the tournament more than 1.5 points clear of every other team at 90.8 points per game. One of the only other teams that ever threatened their stranglehold was the Wildcats, which are currently third at 87.9 points per game.
No. 3 seed Baylor plays a little bit slower than all its West Region counterparts, but they score at a per-possession clip as high as anyone. The Bears currently rate sixth in the nation in offensive efficiency per kenpom.com.
Baylor was memorably all offense and relatively little defense three years ago when they won the national championship. Every other title-winning team of the last 25 years graded out better on defense than the 2021 Bears but their offense-first, defense-a-distant-second approach should give some of the teams in the 2024 West Region solace.
The betting odds imply better than 50% chance than the West champion is either Arizona (+220, i.e. risking $100 to win $200, at the SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas), Baylor (+550) or Alabama (7-to-1). North Carolina is the lone No. 1 seed in this year’s tournament not favored to win its region, as it falls in behind Arizona at 3-to-1.
The Tar Heels are the one team of the top four in the West that’s better defensively than offensively. The speed they employ is largely a result of getting out into transition thanks to the rebounding prowess of big men Armando Bacot and Harrison Ingram.
Shooting guard RJ Davis takes over from there and sits 11th in the nation in averaging 21.4 points per game. Alabama point guard Mark Sears (21.1) and Dayton big man DaRon Holmes (20.4) make the West one of two regions with a trio of players averaging at least 20 points per game.
The West also has a tournament-high nine players who rank in the top 100 nationally in scoring. The aforementioned three are joined by No. 12 seed Grand Canyon’s Tyon Grant-Foster (19.8), No. 6 seed Clemson’s PJ Hall (18.8), No. 7 seed Michigan State’s Tyson Walker (18.2), Arizona’s Caleb Love (18.1), Long Beach State’s Marcus Tsohonis (17.8) and No. 10 seed UNR’s Jarod Lucas (17.8).
The battles in the West Region aren’t going to be for the faint of heart. They’re bound to take bettors on a ride.
Read below for picks against the spread on every West Region game, separated in three confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — and listed in rough order of confidence. Check back for an updated pick after Tuesday evening’s First Four game.
No. 4 seed Alabama -9 vs. No. 13 seed Charleston, over/under: 173.5. The Crimson Tide eviscerated midmajor foes in the nonconference — going 7-0 straight-up and 6-1 against the spread while averaging more than 100 points per game. And a few of those opponents would be favored over a young Charleston team that plays fast, and therefore, right into Alabama’s preferred game state. Play: Alabama -9.
No. 16 seed Howard -3.5 vs. No. 16 seed Wagner, over/under: 128.5. Wagner raised its game to win the Northeast Conference tournament as a No. 6 seed, and it might not be a mere aberration considering the late-season return of injured shooting guard Julian Brown. Howard has dealt with some notable injuries this season too, but its hurt key cogs have remained sidelined. Play: Wagner +3.5.
No. 7 seed Dayton +1.5 vs. No. 10 seed UNR, over/under: 136.5. Does the Wolf Pack deserve an adjustment for a home-court advantage in the line for getting to play in nearby Salt Lake City? That’s the only way to explain why they would be favored over the Flyers. Dayton will have far and away the best player on the floor, and one of the best players in the nation, in Holmes. Lean: Dayton +1.5.
No. 3 seed Baylor -13.5 vs. No. 14 seed Colgate, over/under: 138.5. The Patriot League was down this season, grading out the worst it has in years by multiple metrics. That diminishes Colgate’s impressive 19-2 record against conference opponents. The Raiders have been athletically undone by NCAA Tournament first-round opponents in recent years like Arkansas and Texas, and Baylor can implement the same blueprint. Lean: Baylor -13.5.
No. 8 seed Mississippi State +1 vs. No. 9 seed Michigan State, over/under: 130.5. Michigan State is the unluckiest team to make the NCAA Tournament field and sit 355th in the nation by kenpom's luck metric. The Spartans have continually been on the wrong side of shooting variance and endgame situations. Mississippi State has benefitted from some of the same type of fluky factors that have kept Michigan State down including ranking an unsustainable fifth in the nation in three-point percentage defense. Lean: Michigan State -1.
No. 1 seed North Carolina -25 vs. No. 16 seed Wagner, over/under: 133.5. The Seahawks are on a tear, having covered in all four games dating back to their run through the Northeast Conference Tournament. Is that really going to help them compete with the Tar Heels? Probably not, but Wagner coach Donald Copeland has at least showed enough chops to have a plan to keep the score from getting too out of hand for a while. A first-half play on Wagner +14.5 might be better, but it will slow the game down and make North Carolina earn a cover. Lean: Wagner +25.
No. 5 seed Saint Mary’s -5.5 vs. No. 12 seed Grand Canyon, over/under: 131.5. The Gaels play fundamentally sound defense and similarly mistake-free offense, so it’s tough to doubt them, but the Antelopes may have a plus matchup on the wings. Grand Canyon’s dynamic senior duo of Tyon Grant-Foster and Gabe McGlothan could give the Gaels fits, especially without injured former Liberty High star Joshua Jefferson. Guess: Grand Canyon +5.5.
No. 2 seed Arizona -20.5 vs. No. 15 seed Long Beach State, over/under: 163.5. The Beach is talented enough to hang with the Wildcats for a while, but stylistically, this is one of the worst matchups they could have drawn. Long Beach State plays fast but Arizona prefers an even higher tempo. More possessions means more chances for the athletically superior side to pull away. Guess: Arizona -20.5.
No. 6 seed Clemson +2 vs. No. 11 seed New Mexico, over/under: 150.5. The Lobos are the more talented team with their high-flying backcourt, but their statistical profile has gotten a big boost from having one of the largest home-court advantages in the nation. If any team deserves a scheduling edge here, it’s the Tigers as Clemson is 500 miles closer to Memphis where this game will be played and they’ve gotten three extra days of rest. My number is New Mexico -1.5, so there’s no real value. Guess: Clemson +2.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or
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