NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of the Midwest Region

By Case Keefer (contact)

Published Tuesday, March 19, 2024 | 2:40 p.m.

Updated Thursday, March 21, 2024 | 1:12 p.m.

Note: For the 12 straight time dating back to 2012, Talking Points will be handicapping every NCAA Tournament game against the spread. This is the second entry of a four-part series previewing all the initial regions and games. Check back tomorrow for the final two installments.

Some of the earliest NCAA Tournament bracket projections, made at the outset of the season, had three teams that wound up in the Midwest Region as No. 1 seeds. And, heck, it wouldn’t have been all that outlandish to have four.

No. 1 seed Purdue, No. 2 seed Tennessee and No. 4 seed Kansas were all favored to win their respective power conferences — the Big Ten, SEC and Big 12. No. 3 seed Creighton was a co-favorite to win the Big East with defending national champion Connecticut.

Collectively, all four teams were in the top five in the nation by college basketball statistician Bart Torvik’s preseason rankings.

A natural response would be to accuse that history of not mattering. Kansas and Creighton specifically fell short of expectations, so the Midwest bracket isn’t exactly the proverbial “Group of Death” everyone would have coined it a few months ago.

A few analysts have even suggested that Purdue got the easiest draw of all the No. 1 seeds.

There’s no way.

In fact, a case can be made that no other region has more talent in its top five teams — throw No. 5 seed Gonzaga in with the quartet — than the Midwest.

A somewhat hidden edge in the NCAA Tournament historically has come with preseason projections being just as predictive going forward as recent results.

Not every team in the Midwest saw its season go as smoothly as planned, but that doesn’t mean they don’t have the ability to turn it around when the stakes are their highest.

The Blue Jays, carrying a similar core, came one point away from reaching the Final Four last year. The Jayhawks were the consensus preseason No. 1 team and started the season 13-1.

There’s typically more signal in previous success and accolades like that than the cycle of allowing what happened most recently to serve as the primary talking point would suggest.

And what happened most recently was every viable contender in the Midwest Region showed its flaws. All top five seeds were upset in the conference tournaments, including Tennessee getting blown out by 14 points as a 10-point favorite to Mississippi State while competing for the chance to earn a No. 1 seed.

Creighton was an 8.5-point favorite ahead of a 5-point loss to Providence, while Purdue was a 6-point favorite before losing to Wisconsin in overtime.

The Boilermakers fell out of consideration for the NCAA Tournament’s overall No. 1 seed with the defeat while getting it used against them as another example of their traditional March Madness disappointment.

They’ve never made a Final Four in 15 tournament appearances under coach Matt Painter despite being favored to do so at different points several times. Purdue’s flameouts the last two years have been particularly devastating.

It became the second team ever to lose to a No. 16 seed last year, falling 63-58 to Fairleigh Dickinson as 23.5-point favorites. In 2022, Purdue was an odds-on favorite to get out of its region after reaching the Sweet 16 but lost 67-64 to No. 15 seed Saint Peter’s.

Tennessee’s track record in the big dance might be worse as it’s been upset out of the tournament in all five previous berths under current coach Rick Barnes.

The odds imply around a straight 50/50 chance that either Purdue (+150, i.e. risking $100 to win $150, to win the region at SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas) or Tennessee (3-to-1) break the drought and get to a long-awaited Final Four this year.

But it won’t be easy. It would be a mistake to gloss over the high expectations set forth for the other three major contenders — Creighton (+450), Gonzaga (+850) and Kansas (18-to-1) — early in the season.

Priors matter in the NCAA Tournament. And they indicate the Midwest Region could be a sleeping giant.

Read below for picks against the spread on every Midwest Region game, separated in three confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available on the chosen side in Las Vegas at publication time. Check back for updated picks on the two new matchups after the First Four games on Tuesday and Wednesday.

No. 5 seed Gonzaga -6 vs. No. 12 seed McNeese State, over/under: 150.5. Gonzaga’s efficiency flew off the charts down the stretch of the season while putting together a 15-game winning streak. Despite a loss to St. Mary’s in the West Coast Conference tournament title, the Bulldogs have looked more like their program’s past national-championship contending teams than the up-and-down version from earlier this year. It was a bad enough for draw for a feisty McNeese State side, which would have a better chance at beating every other No. 5 seed, before even considering it must travel West to Salt Lake City to give Gonzaga another edge. Play: Gonzaga -6.

No. 4 seed Kansas -8 vs. No. 13 seed Samford, over/under: 154. The spread opened Kansas -7 but hasn’t moved enough in its direction if wing Kevin McCullar and center Hunter Dickinson are returning from injury for the tournament. Every indication is that Kansas’ two best players will play after getting ample time for recovery by sitting out the Big 12 tournament. Samford is defensively vulnerable and will likely be overwhelmed by the duo. Play: Kansas -8. *Note: McCullar was ruled out of the tournament hours after this published. Tickets can't be refunded in sports betting so the pick will stand and be tracked, but I would no longer bet Kansas and even lean Samford +7.*

No. 8 seed Utah State +4.5 vs. No. 9 seed TCU, over/under: 150.5. This number opened at a fairer price of TCU -2.5, but money has continually flooded in on the Big 12 team to inflate the spread. One of the reasons for the interest in fading Utah State is the Mountain West conference’s historic underachieving during the NCAA Tournament. But that’s not necessarily predictive going forward, and the conference was better than ever this season. Mountain West Player of the Year Great Osbor will be the best player on the floor. Play: Utah State +4.5.

No. 6 seed South Carolina -1 vs. No. 11 seed Oregon, over/under: 132.5. Oregon took all the early money but being doubted and seeing steam coming in on the other side is nothing new for South Carolina, which went 23-10 against the spread this season. The Ducks looked great in winning the Pac-12 Conference tournament as 10-to-1 longshots but inconsistency has held them back all year, which is no surprise given their relative inexperience and roster construction of disparate parts. Teams with high athleticism and length have bothered South Carolina this year but Oregon doesn’t have a large supply of either. Lean: South Carolina -1.

No. 3 seed Creighton -12.5 vs. No. 14 seed Akron, over/under: 140.5. Creighton has been maddening all year, but it’s ceiling remains as high as any team in the tournament with one of the nation’s best starting lineups. The Blue Jays’ size and three-point shooting volume and ability led them to mostly blowout wins against mid-major teams in the non-conference schedule, and Akron could be set up for the same fate. Lean: Creighton -12.5.

No. 16 seed Montana State -3.5 vs. No. 16 seed Grambling, over/under: 134.5. The difference in these teams’ strengths of schedules could justify this spread being larger. Grambling’s Southwestern Athletic Conference widely graded out as the worst league in college basketball this year while Montana State’s Big Sky was actually tougher than usual. The Tigers are also playing on short rest after wrapping up the SWAC tournament title this weekend while the Bobcats had a week off. Lean: Montana St. -3.5.

No. 2 seed Tennessee -21.5 vs. No. 15 seed Saint Peter’s, over/under: 129. This year’s Peacocks are significantly weaker than the No. 15 seed version two years ago that memorably made a run to the Elite Eight, especially on offense. They stand no chance in repeating such success. Tennessee will be ahead by more than this spread at some point of the game, but as it continues to rise, a backdoor cover becomes more of a possibility as the Volunteers likely clear their bench towards the end of the second half. Guess: St. Peter’s +21.5.

No. 10 seed Virginia +2.5 vs. No. 10 seed Colorado State, over/under: 121. The Cavaliers are extreme even for their standards this year, playing at the slowest pace of any of the nation’s 362 teams per kenpom.com. That all but ensures an evenly-matched game like this one will come down to the final minutes. The point spread looks exactly right, but I can’t espouse wanting to back Mountain West teams earlier in the picks and then ditch them in what amounts to a coinflip game. Guess: Colorado State -2.5.

No. 7 seed Texas -2.5 vs. No. 10 seed Colorado State, over/under: 145. Texas hasn’t quite played up to its potential this year but has an electrifying backcourt that looks tailormade for tournament success with Max Abmas and Tyrese Hunter. Teams coming out of the First Four have actually fared well over the year, but it should be a disadvantage having to play a second game in three days in different cities. Guess: Texas -2.5.

No. 1 seed Purdue -26.5 vs. No. 16 seed Grambling, over/under: 139. Likely back-to-back National Player of the Year Zach Edey took only 10 shots in Purdue’s historic loss as a No. 1 seed to Fairleigh Dickinson last year. There’s no way that happens again. And as long as the Boilermakers force the ball to their 7-foot-4 best player, there’s no way they lose to a team as undersized as the Tigers. It’s also more likely than not they blow them out. Guess: Purdue -26.5.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or