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Illinois guard Terrence Shannon Jr. celebrates after a fast break dunk against Iowa State during the second half of the Sweet 16 college basketball game in the men’s NCAA Tournament, Friday, March 29, 2024, in Boston.
Saturday, March 30, 2024 | 2 a.m.
Connecticut toppled the nation’s top-ranked offensive team in the Elite Eight en route to a national championship last season.
The same task lies ahead of the NCAA Tournament’s top overall seeded Huskies this year when they take on No. 3 seed Illinois in the East Region final at 3:09 p.m. today at TD Garden in Boston. The Huskies are an 8.5-point favorite in a game the metrics unanimously agree pits the two best offensive teams in the nation.
Illinois has climbed up the ranks by going 6-0 straight-up, 5-1 against the spread in the postseason — the same mark as Connecticut — behind the unstoppable scoring touch of senior wing Terrence Shannon.
The Illini make for a much different challenge than Connecticut faced a year ago in the Elite Eight when they took on Gonzaga, and inimitable big man Drew Timme, at T-Mobile Arena. The Huskies were only a 2.5-point favorite in that game but blew out the Bulldogs 82-54.
Gonzaga was a cut above all other teams by offensive efficiency a year ago, but it didn’t matter. Does the same fate await Illinois?
Read below for my handicaps on both of today’s Elite Eight games. Games are labeled in one of three confidence categories, and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available on the chosen side in Las Vegas. The record for picking every tournament game currently stands at 32-26-2 (10-12-1 on plays, 12-3 on leans and 10-11-1 on guesses).
No. 4 seed Alabama -2.5 vs. No. 6 seed Clemson, over/under: 164. I’ve put a play on the Crimson Tide in every round of the tournament so far. Why stop now? Arizona looked woefully underprepared to help lead to a 77-72 Clemson upset victory in the Sweet 16. The Wildcats couldn’t adjust to the Tigers’ evolving defensive looks and had no real strategy offensively until it was too late. That won’t happen to a team coached by Nate Oats as Alabama has one of the bigger edges on the bench in all of college basketball. Alabama was a 9-point favorite hosting Clemson earlier in the season, and while yes, the visitors prevailed 85-77, it took an unconscious shooting effort. A 6.5-point shift in the line, even at a neutral site like Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, is too much. Play: Alabama -2.5.
No. 1 seed Connecticut -8.5 vs. No. 3 seed Illinois, over/under: 155. No team has more versatile pieces it can deploy in different ways than the Huskies. It might not have been immediate but coach Danny Hurley has become a master in adjusting and finding out how to use all of them in the best manner. The Huskies looked as human as they have in the last two tournaments during a rocky offensive stretch in the first half against San Diego State in the Sweet 16 — and they still won by 30 after closing 12.5-point favorites. Connecticut is an outlier, and outliers are difficult for conventional ratings and, therefore, the market to price. Guess: Connecticut -8.5.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or
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