Sunday Sweats: Eight bets to add to your NFL Week 2 card

The wish was that the arrival and rebirth of the Sunday Sweats would trigger a turnaround for the recently dwindling bottom line of the weekend betting column, and it came true in Week 1.

The column hit all three of its point-spread bets placed earlier in the summer, both player props and saw the Lions survive in overtime to cash a four-team moneyline parlay. Overall, I went 8-4 with a return of more than $1,100 to begin the NFL season in this space.

That really shouldn’t be cause for too much celebration though. It’s still so early and the margins remain so slim.

I’ll keep focusing on moving forward and finding the best bets in eight categories each week for the Sunday Sweats.

Read below for bets in eight different categories ahead of NFL Week 2. This column is considered an extension of Weekend Wagers and plays from both will be tracked in the record. Bets placed outside of the weekly NFL pick’em  will also be accounted for here. Make sure to check back to lasvegassun.com Sunday for one final bet, on a prop in the Raiders’ gameday section that will also be attached to the Sunday Sweats record.     

Tasty Total (1-1, -$20): Chicago Bears at Houston Texans Under 46 (Wynn)

$220 to win $200

The final bet tracked in this column each week has come in Sunday’s Raider gameday preview for years, and now the first bet tracked in this column each week has a home too. I’m sneaking an Easter egg total into the pick’em each week — this week’s was Giants-Commanders over 43.5 — to give this category two plays per week. The first three picks of the season were all overs, so let’s start to even things out with an under on Sunday Night Football. Put simply as possible, the Bears’ offense looked dreadful in Week 1 and their defense looked formidable. I’m not so sure that’s a one-off, especially with Bears receivers Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze banged up this week. This total implies a slightly higher than average scoring game, and I don’t see it. The Texans are capable on both sides of the ball, but the Bears’ situation makes them an under team to start the season until the market adjusts.

Two- Or Three-Team Teaser (0-1, -$250): Baltimore Ravens -2.5 & Detroit Lions -1.5 at -125 (Caesars/William Hill)

$312.50 to win $250

Speaking of low-scoring games, the Raiders at Ravens total has crashed and settled at over/under 41 points. That should preclude bettors from laying more than a touchdown with the home team, but luckily, there’s a better option in pushing them down through the 3 and 7. There should, on the contrary, be nothing methodical about offense in the Buccaneers at Lions game but I heavily favor the home team. Taking the Lions through 7 and 3 is the best teaser leg of the week as seeing them lose to a Buccaneers’ team with a mediocre roster would be borderline shocking. I’m more concerned about the Ravens holding up their leg of the teaser than the Lions.

Moneyline Parlay (1-0, $301.56): Jacksonville Jaguars & Houston Texans at +121 (BetMGM)

$200 to win $243.18

It’s an underdog-heavy week for me, but there are three favorites I’m liking quite a bit. The Lions are one of them, but I used them in the teaser. Jacksonville and Houston are the next two, making them a natural choice to tie together in a parlay. BetMGM offers the best price on this parlay largely because it has Houston at a best-in-market price of -275. The Texans are one of the best teams in the NFL, and the market seems hesitant to price them like it. The Browns are meanwhile a mess, and not just because of regrettable quarterback Deshaun Watson. They’re banged up elsewhere, and Jacksonville should be able to take advantage at home. The Jaguars’ consensus -160 price to win outright is similarly a bit cheap.  

Player Prop (2-0, $400): Josh Jacobs under 65.5 rushing yards at -110 (BetMGM)

$220 to win $200

A lot of people’s natural inclination is to back the star running back on a good team when the starting quarterback gets injured, in this case the Packers’ Jordan Love. It hasn’t been a winning strategy long-term. A decline in offensive efficiency tends to tank numbers across the board. The Colts don’t have a strong rush defense but expect them to load the box and dare someone other than Jacobs to pick up yards. That’s a big challenge for the former Raider who didn’t get going until late in the Packers’ loss to the Eagles in Sao Paulo, Brazil last week and nursed a back injury that made him limited in practice all week.

Anytime Touchdown (0-1, -$100): Ja’Marr Chase at +188 (STN Sports)

$100 to win $188

The outspoken top receiver coined the Bengals “the team to beat in the AFC” earlier this week, and I fully believe that he believes the controversial quote. Never lacking for confidence, Chase will have a point to prove against the Chiefs and a defensive backfield that looks ripe for the taking. Kansas City is still adjusting to the loss of top cornerback L’Jarius Sneed, who was traded to the Titans in the offseason. The Chiefs only allowed Ravens top receiver Zay Flowers 37 yards on six catches in their opener, but he was open a lot more often than that. Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow and Chase have an eerie connection when they’re on. The former won’t miss the latter when, or if, he has a chance to score on Sunday.

Lookahead Line (3-0, $700): New Orleans Saints +3.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles in Week 3 (Boyd Sports)

$330 to win $300

I violated one of my biggest rules of lookahead lines in last week’s column: Take key numbers. There was no reason to lock in Denver +2.5 — a bet I begrudgingly still like — when it was never going to take much to bump the line up to a field goal. The Broncos got all the way to +3.5 this week before receiving some buyback ahead of their game against the Steelers. Well, I’ll rectify the problem this week. New Orleans should not be more than a 3-point underdog at home against a team playing on a short week as Philadelphia faces Atlanta on Monday Night Football before traveling to the Superdome next week. The Saints will just need a respectable performance at the Cowboys Sunday — and I think they might win outright — to see this number drop at least a half-point. Take the +3.5 now because it might be the last time it’s available.   

Future Finding (0-1, -$100): Brian Thomas to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 25-to-1 (BetMGM)

$80 to win $2,000

Having already lost one of my two offseason bets in this market to injury and seen the struggles of the trio of rookie quarterbacks still standing in Week 1, I’m back to shopping hard for value in this market. There’s no better value right now than Thomas, who had four catches for 47 yards and a touchdown in the Jaguars’ season-opening loss at the Dolphins. And he’s capable of much more. He graded out as the top rookie offensive performer of the week per Pro Football Focus and drew praise from Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence. The Jaguars could easily have a top-10 offense this year, and it looks like Thomas could unseat Christian Kirk as their No. 1 target. The gap between Thomas and Marvin Harrison Jr. (8-to-1) and Malik Nabers (15-to-1) among the rookie receivers isn’t justified.

Non-football Play (1-0, $200): Merab Dvalishvilli +120 vs. Sean O’Malley at UFC 306 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

$400 to win $480

I cannot believe Dvalishvilli looks like he will enter tonight’s bantamweight title fight as an underdog against O’Malley. This is such an advantageous matchup for the pressure grappler, one where he should suffocate the striker with wrestling for 25 minutes. The line has flipped to O’Malley’s way largely because of reports of Dvalishvilli having a trying training camp that included a cut that required stiches and rumors of otherwise medical issues. That’s a concern, but not enough to make “The Machine” an underdog. That chatter doesn’t pan out a lot of the time, anyway. Dvalishvilli has shown up and dominated in 10 straight UFC bouts. Tonight, in all likelihood, the tally becomes 11 straight as he’s crowned a new champion to cap a historic card.

Sunday Sweats year to date: 7-4, $1,131.56

Weekend betting column year to date: 92-101-1, $8,624.43

Weekend betting column all-time: 752-813-1, $40,025.43

Previous pending wagers: Oregon -1.5 -102 vs. Ohio State in Week 7 ($306 to win $300); New York Yankees to win World Series ($300 to win $3,000); Christopher Bell to win NASCAR Cup championship at 12-to-1 ($200 to win $2,400); Patrick Mahomes to win 2024-2025 NFL MVP at +750 ($350 to win $2,625); Kansas City Chiefs to win Super Bowl 59 at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700); New York Liberty to win WNBA Championship at +250 ($500 to win $1,250); Inter Miami to win MLS Cup at +300 ($500 to win $1,500); Tarik Skubal to win American League Cy Young at 20-to-1 ($120 to win $2,400); Cole Ragans to win American League Cy Young at 35-to-1 ($70 to win $2,450); New Jersey Devils to win Stanley Cup Final at 16-to-1 ($250 to win $4,000); Reed Sheppard to win NBA Rookie of the Year at 11-to-1 ($200 to win $2,200); Dillon Gabriel to win the Heisman Trophy at 14-to-1 ($200 to win $2,800); Dave Canales to win NFL Coach of the Year at 20-to-1 ($100 to win $2,000); Carolina Hurricanes to win President's Trophy at 15-to-1 ($150 to win $2,250); Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to win NBA MVP ($300 to win $1,800); UNLV football to win the Mountain West at 8-to-1 ($200 to win $1,600);  Carolina Panthers +5 at Las Vegas Raiders in Week 3 ($220 to win $200); Florida State to win the ACC at 3-to-1 ($315 to win $945); SMU to win the ACC at 16-to-1 ($75 to win $1,200); New Orleans Saints to win the NFC South at +425 ($200 to win $950); CeeDeee Lamb to win Offensive Player of the Year at 10-to-1 ($300 to win $3,000); Aidan Hutchinson to win Defensive Player of the Year at 16-to-1 ($200 to win $3,200); Justin Madubuike to win Defensive Player of the Year at 100-to-1 ($25 to win $2,500); Derrick Henry to lead the NFL in rushing at 20-to-1 ($100 to win $2,000); James Cook to lead the NFL in rushing yards at 35-to-1 ($65 to win $2,275); Bo Nix to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 18-to-1 ($100 to win $1,800); JJ McCarthy to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 25-to-1 ($75 to win $1,875); Jared Verse to win Defensive Rookie of the Year at 11-to-1 ($200 to win $2,200); Chop Robinson to win Defensive Rookie of the Year at 20-to-1 ($110 to win $2,200); Penn State to make the College Football Playoff at -125 ($250 to win $200); Dallas Cowboys to win the NFC East at +175 ($300 to win $525); Miami to win the ACC at +250 ($500 to win $1,250); Miami Dolphins to win the AFC East at +225 ($200 to win $550); Baltimore Ravens to win the AFC North at +155 ($200 to win $310); Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South at 3-to-1 ($200 to win $600); Kansas City Chiefs to win the AFC West at -265 ($530 to win $200); Minnesota Vikings to win the NFC North at +1425 ($50 to win $712.50); San Francisco 49ers to win the NFC West at -190 ($380 to win $200)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or