Sunday Sweats: Eight bets to add to your NFL Week 3 card

Betting as early as possible to try to get a jump on the market has been one of the unofficial commandments of this weekend betting column ever since it launched more than four years ago.

It still must be acknowledged, however, that the strategy can either feel like an absolute stroke of genius or a colossal waste of time at different points. The pair of lookahead lines already banked for Sunday’s NFL Week 3 here are a perfect example.

Last week’s wager on the Saints +3.5 hosting the Eagles aged exquisitely as the home team is now giving three points on the spread. But on a bet on the Panthers +5 at the Raiders from earlier in the summer seasoned sourly.

Carolina is now widely a 6-point favorite, so not only was the money spent on backing it nearly two months ago poorly utilized but it was also held up for little reason.

Win some, lose some, I suppose. But to keep betting early, you better be winning more line moves than you lose.  

Those aren’t the only two appetizers ahead of this week’s Sunday Sweats as I also locked in Baltimore at Dallas under 49 points and a two-team, six-point teaser with the Chargers +8 and the 49ers at -1.5 in the pick’em.

Again, I went 1-1 in getting value. The total is now down to 47.5, but both teams in the teaser have significant injury concerns that cropped up after writing up that bet.

Caution might not be my best virtue, however, and I’m going to keep firing on the eight weekly categories for Sunday Sweats.

Find all of this week’s bets below. This column is considered an extension of Weekend Wagers and plays from both will be tracked in the record. Non-point spread bets placed inside of the weekly NFL pick’em  and elsewhere will also be accounted for here. Make sure to check back to lasvegassun.com Sunday for one final bet, on a prop in the Raiders’ gameday section that will also be attached to the Sunday Sweats record.  

Tasty Total (2-2, -$40): Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 40.5 points (BetMGM)

$220 to win $200

Betting a Bo Nix-quarterbacked team to chip in enough for a game to go over should be a real crowd-pleaser. The rookie out of Oregon by way of Auburn has looked out of his league through two games to say the least with no touchdowns, four interceptions and only five yards per pass attempt. But let’s give him an ever-so-slight break. Those first two games came against Seattle and Pittsburgh, which might be two of the best stop units in the league. Tampa Bay should be more forgiving, especially with standout nose tackle Vita Vea doubtful to play. The Buccaneers should score well into the 20s; the only question is if the Broncos can do their part. I think they have a better chance than perceived.

Two- Or Three-Team Teaser (0-2, -$500): Los Angeles Chargers +8.5, Chicago Bears +7 & Cincinnati Bengals -1.5 at +160 (BetMGM)

$200 to win $320

Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert’s surely going to play, right? I’m confident he’ll gut through an ankle sprain and suit up in Pittsburgh. If not, I’m at high risk of doubling my loss on the year in this category in one fell swoop. The Chargers are too strong of a teaser side against a slow-moving, explosion-lacking Steelers’ offense to not include though. And, with the two-teamer already in tow, I figured we’d try something different. Three-team, six-point teasers at +160 are less popular but also mathematically shrewd with the right conditions. These three teams fit those conditions. The Bears at Colts game should be low-scoring with neither team pulling away for a lopsided win. The Bengals, on the other hand, could flatten a Commanders’ side that doesn’t have the personnel to be a contender this year. This section is always a gamble, this week just a little more so with Herbert’s status. Please play, Herbert.

Moneyline Parlay (1-1, $101.56): Philadelphia Eagles and Atlanta Falcons at +463 (Circa Sports)

$88 to win $408

The Isiah Pacheco injury may really hurt the Chiefs. The back-to-back champions’ weapon arsenal looks better this year, but they are pretty thin in the backfield with undrafted rookie Carson Steele getting the start and reunited free-agent signing Kareem Hunt set to be inactive this week. They’ve been perennially overvalued in the regular season, and that might be the case again with Circa offering one of the best prices in the market on the Falcons at +145. I have less concern about the Eagles’ skill corps, even without top receiver A.J. Brown. They were a 3.5-point favorite in this game a week ago, and to now be a market-best +131 underdog at Circa doesn’t jibe. Already riding the Saints +3.5 in this game, I’m hoping to middle with the Eagles pulling out a close win by a field goal or less. That would be the ultimate thrill and really give the column an early season bankroll boost.   

Player Prop (3-1, $380): Caleb Williams over 211.5 passing yards at Even money (BetMGM)

$200 to win $200

Take a similar logic used to defend Nix above and now apply it to his more decorated rookie classmate. The No. 1 overall pick from the 2024 NFL Draft has been under fire against the strong Titans’ and Texans’ defensive lines to start the year. The Colts’ pass rush isn’t as fearsome and should give Williams time to show flashes of what had many calling him a generational prospect. Williams’ over/under for passing yards was as high as 238 going into the Week 1 game against the Titans and around 218 versus the Texans. He didn’t come close to eclipsing either line but this big of a dip isn’t necessary considering he’s now going up against easier competition.  

Anytime Touchdown (0-2, -$200): Jauan Jennings at +265 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

$100 to win $265

Someone’s got to score in this game, right? The majority of both teams' most dangerous offensive players are hurt so it's going to be left to lesser-known players to carry the scoring weight. The Rams will surely center their pass defense on Brandon Aiyuk to arguably leave Jennings as the 49ers’ most likely scorer in the receiving corps. It’s not like the University of Tennessee product doesn’t have a rapport with quarterback Brock Purdy considering the pair built a nice connection by the end of last season. Jennings even memorably caught a touchdown at Allegiant Stadium in Super Bowl 58 to give the 49ers a fourth-quarter lead. The Rams’ defensive backfield is among the team’s many position groups ravaged by injury, and an improving player entering his prime like Jennings could easily take advantage.

Lookahead Line (3-1, $370): Los Angeles Chargers +4.5 -120 vs. Kansas City Chiefs in Week 4 (Boyd Sports)

$360 to win $300

‘Tis my curse to bet against the Chiefs every week this season apparently. And to pin all my hopes on Herbert’s healing power. But the latter isn’t much of a concern at all a week ahead of time. Herbert said he was in pain Friday but could still possibly play against the Steelers. That means there’s almost no way he’d miss the Chiefs’ game unless he reaggravates the injury. I’m not a Chiefs’ hater either. In fact, if I had to pick one team to win Super Bowl 59 right now, it would be Kansas City. But there’s no getting around that it’s been a mediocre regular-season team relative to its reputation the last few years. Now the Chiefs have a cluster of offensive injuries to go with a somewhat redesigned defense early in the season. They shouldn’t be priced like they’re in the form they were when they beat the 49ers in the Super Bowl in February.  

Future Finding (0-1, -$100): Aaron Rodgers to win Comeback Player of the Year at +175 (Boyd Sports)

$300 to win $525

Rodgers came into the season at +175 in this market and still sits there. How is that possible? He’s exceeded expectations, especially coming off the Jets’ 24-3 victory over the Patriots as 6.5-point favorites on "Thursday Night Football," where he looked in vintage form with 281 passing yards, two touchdowns and even 18 rushing yards (lost a prop bet on that one — sigh). The answer, I suppose, is that there are a couple other viable candidates in Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins and Chargers running back J.K. Dobbins. But it’s a stretch to think Dobbins will stay healthy for the whole year, and Rodgers has always been considered a couple tiers clear of Cousins. This was always the four-time Most Valuable Player award winner’s honor to lose, and he doesn’t look like he’s loosening his grip.

Nonfootball Play (2-0, $680): Las Vegas Aces -7 vs. Seattle Storm (STN Sports)

$330 to win $300

The Aces should be double-digit favorites in their playoff opener. They’re bulldozing everyone right now on a 10-game covering streak — amusingly following nine-game against the spread losing streak — including a 85-72 beatdown of the Storm in Seattle earlier this week. Yes, two of Seattle’s best players — Jewell Loyd and Ezi Magbegor — didn’t play in that game and are expected back for the postseason. But there’s been no guarantee, and even if they do play, there might be some rust after a week off. Las Vegas meanwhile is fully healthy, and there’s no team in the league playing better.  

Sunday Sweats year to date: 10-10, $591.56

Weekend betting column year to date: 95-107-1, $8,084.43

Weekend betting column all-time: 755-819-1, $39,485.43 

Previous pending wagers: Oregon -1.5 -102 vs. Ohio State in Week 7 ($306 to win $300); New York Yankees to win World Series ($300 to win $3,000); Christopher Bell to win NASCAR Cup championship at 12-to-1 ($200 to win $2,400); Patrick Mahomes to win 2024-2025 NFL MVP at +750 ($350 to win $2,625); Kansas City Chiefs to win Super Bowl 59 at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700); New York Liberty to win WNBA Championship at +250 ($500 to win $1,250); Inter Miami to win MLS Cup at +300 ($500 to win $1,500); Tarik Skubal to win American League Cy Young at 20-to-1 ($120 to win $2,400); Cole Ragans to win American League Cy Young at 35-to-1 ($70 to win $2,450); New Jersey Devils to win Stanley Cup Final at 16-to-1 ($250 to win $4,000); Reed Sheppard to win NBA Rookie of the Year at 11-to-1 ($200 to win $2,200); Dillon Gabriel to win the Heisman Trophy at 14-to-1 ($200 to win $2,800); Dave Canales to win NFL Coach of the Year at 20-to-1 ($100 to win $2,000); Carolina Hurricanes to win President's Trophy at 15-to-1 ($150 to win $2,250); Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to win NBA MVP ($300 to win $1,800); UNLV football to win the Mountain West at 8-to-1 ($200 to win $1,600);  Carolina Panthers +5 at Las Vegas Raiders in Week 3 ($220 to win $200); Florida State to win the ACC at 3-to-1 ($315 to win $945); SMU to win the ACC at 16-to-1 ($75 to win $1,200); New Orleans Saints to win the NFC South at +425 ($200 to win $950); CeeDeee Lamb to win Offensive Player of the Year at 10-to-1 ($300 to win $3,000); Aidan Hutchinson to win Defensive Player of the Year at 16-to-1 ($200 to win $3,200); Justin Madubuike to win Defensive Player of the Year at 100-to-1 ($25 to win $2,500); Derrick Henry to lead the NFL in rushing at 20-to-1 ($100 to win $2,000); James Cook to lead the NFL in rushing yards at 35-to-1 ($65 to win $2,275); Bo Nix to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 18-to-1 ($100 to win $1,800); JJ McCarthy to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 25-to-1 ($75 to win $1,875); Jared Verse to win Defensive Rookie of the Year at 11-to-1 ($200 to win $2,200); Chop Robinson to win Defensive Rookie of the Year at 20-to-1 ($110 to win $2,200); Penn State to make the College Football Playoff at -125 ($250 to win $200); Dallas Cowboys to win the NFC East at +175 ($300 to win $525); Miami to win the ACC at +250 ($500 to win $1,250); Miami Dolphins to win the AFC East at +225 ($200 to win $550); Baltimore Ravens to win the AFC North at +155 ($200 to win $310); Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South at 3-to-1 ($200 to win $600); Kansas City Chiefs to win the AFC West at -265 ($530 to win $200); Minnesota Vikings to win the NFC North at +1425 ($50 to win $712.50); San Francisco 49ers to win the NFC West at -190 ($380 to win $200); New Orleans Saints +3.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles ($330 to win $300); Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys under 49 points ($220 to win $200); Los Angeles Chargers +8/San Francisco 49ers -1.5 teaser at -125 ($250 to win $200)

 

 

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or