Brian Greenspun finds progress in India — and tests for its democracy

By Brian Greenspun (contact)

Sunday, Feb. 24, 2008 | 2 a.m.

We are traveling through the subcontinent on a path toward 21st century dominance.

Hindsight tells us quite clearly that the 20th was the American century. It was not necessary to look back on the last 100 years to know that. At any time during the past century, it was quite evident that everything that happened and, looking forward, was about to happen, would be influenced mightily by the United States.

The future of the 21st century, as far as the United States is concerned, is not quite that clear. In fact, the best I think we can look forward to is a sharing relationship which, truth be told, might not be the worst thing that could happen.

In October 2006 I took a weekslong study tour of China with the Brookings Institution, a think tank where I am a member of the board of trustees. We traveled the entire country, met with business leaders, social leadership and, of course, China’s political leadership. It was quite evident that all we are hearing about China’s emergence as a major player during this century was no exaggeration. With all of its problems, all of its seemingly insurmountable challenges — the care and feeding of 1.2 billion people uppermost among them — it appears that China’s on an inexorable move toward major player status over the next few decades.

A significant reason for its ability to meet its challenges is the central government and its ability to dictate the direction, ways and means of China’s entry into the world of modernized nations.

This year the Brookings study tour is in India. We are halfway through, but what we have seen so far gives me every reason to believe that the hype about India is also justified. But, as clear as it was for me to see the Chinese government’s grip on power as its means to solving many of its unsolvable problems, I must admit that India’s democracy may be the source of its inability to get where it is going without traveling on a very messy road.

Speaking of roads, we spent the first four days in the city of Mumbai. For most of the world and Indians who aren’t into the government’s political correctness when it comes to changing familiar names, Mumbai is really Bombay. It is home to 18 million people and it is the major business center of India. The fact that 6 million people board trains twice a day to go into and out of the center city for work — and the rest of the city stands still because there are no roads or highways to speak of — is just one of the government’s major challenges.

In this case, not unlike in the democratic processes in the United States, there are so many vested interests at play along the proposed routes for roads — roads that will make five-mile trips, which now take well over an hour, bearable — it is not clear they will ever get fixed.

Unlike with our infrastructure woes in Las Vegas, where the citizens refuse to spend the money necessary to build and improve our roads and highways so that we can maintain a decent quality of life, there is plenty of money and plenty of desire to build in India.

There are also hundreds of thousands and millions of competing interests that make political consensus almost impossible to reach. Hence, a brand new six-lane flyover bridge, which will make a 90 minute ride less than 20 minutes as soon as it is completed, may not ever open. That’s because all six lanes dump into just one lane that will, in the end, accomplish nothing. And getting the land condemned for more lanes in the Indian democratic process is a lot like getting money from our governor to build enough roads to make the 10-minute trip to the grocery store something less than a nightmare. It probably isn’t going to happen.

The good news, though, is that one of India’s major companies, Tata — you know, the folks who are buying up half the world — is coming out with a brand new $2,300 car called the Nano at the end of this year. If its execs are right, that car will revolutionize the way India’s growing middle class gets to and from work. And once the folks invest that much money — can you imagine a car that works for $2,300 being built in the United States? — they darn well will demand better roads that actually go somewhere.

Clearly, democracy is messy, but there is no chance the Indians will accept anything else. They have a long history and commitment to this form of government, so they will find a way to muddle through. In the meantime, India’s business world is transforming the subcontinent into a 21st century player which, together with its nemesis China, could dominate the better part of the next 90 years.

Of course, all is not rosy here. There are homes — palaces mostly — that cry out success and that are surrounded on all sides by some of the worst examples of abject poverty you can imagine. For some reason it coexists peacefully, which is a major difference between India and our country. How long that situation maintains is anybody’s guess, but as long as there is economic progress there is reason to believe the patient people of this country will continue to be patient.

Here’s a footnote to consider. On our last night in Mumbai, we had dinner at the home of the wealthiest man in India, Mukesh Ambani. Next year the chairman of Reliance Industries will be the wealthiest man in the world. And there are half a dozen more people right behind him who are helping to transform this emerging nation into a global powerhouse. Think about that when you think about where America will be in the next few decades. Especially if we don’t fix our schools and the values we teach our children in our homes.

From Bombay, we go to Bangalore — that’s the place where our jobs, our IT solutions and our businesses have been outsourced — where the world has become flat. Tom Friedman’s best seller, “The World is Flat,” was centered there.

More about that next time.