Reid has nothing to worry about, except …

By Jon Ralston

Sunday, July 26, 2009 | 2:01 a.m.

On Friday morning The Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza, who helps set the Beltway conventional wisdom, took Harry Reid out of his top 10 list of most vulnerable senators.

Cillizza sees with his D.C. telescope what Nevada insiders see with their naked eyes: The Senate majority leader has no formidable opponent, he is on track to raise $25 million and state Democrats enjoy about a 100,000-voter registration edge. Reid hardly is safe 464 days before the election, but he hardly seems vulnerable anymore.

Except ...

Except that he still has some of the worst polling numbers in the country for a senatorial incumbent — a Mason-Dixon poll last month found that only 34 percent of the electorate had warm and fuzzy feelings about him, and 46 percent did not think too highly of him. Those are fatal numbers for most elected officials, especially one who has been around for four decades, which surely has caused a contagion of Reid fatigue.

Reid, though, has masterfully played the anointment game so far, cobbling together support from business types and Republicans while squeezing donors who might give to formidable hopefuls such as Rep. Dean Heller. It’s good to be the Senate majority leader.

Combine the financial clamp he has applied with Reid’s reputation as a fearsome inside player who will make any candidate pay a heavy price for challenging him and he has thus far warded off any serious challengers. So I see why Cillizza culled Reid from his top 10.

Except ...

There are plenty of folks talking about and even campaigning for Reid’s seat on the GOP side. And even a no-name has a chance against someone whose approval numbers are upside down. Ex-Assemblywoman Sharron Angle may draw tittering from the political cognoscenti, but she is relentless, and with some outside funding, she almost cost Heller that congressional seat two cycles ago. And there will be plenty of outside funding this cycle as the national Republicans have Reid as their No. 1 target — and, I’d guess, their Nos. 2 through 10, too.

Angle is not the only one, either. Ex-state Sen. Mark Amodei, politically active physician Rudy Manthei, state GOP Chairwoman Sue Lowden, ambitious Regent James Dean Leavitt and some rich guys nobody knows such as Chuck Kozak and John Chachas all are either actively looking or actively campaigning. The old cliche that you can’t beat something with nothing may be turned on its head next year because these various nothings may have a chance against a majority leader who doesn’t have much margin for error, $25 million or no $25 million.

Reid, though, is unlikely to fret much about a Chachas or Kozak candidacy because the last time some moneyed carpetbagger won a prominent office in Nevada was ... wait, I’ll think of it ... give me a minute ... I’ll get back to you. And the others, though they have some potential, all have varying degrees of baggage that $25 million could be used to define early, middle and late. Money can heal all wounds in the campaign world.

Except ...

Except the national atmospherics could make somebodies out of nobodies pretty quickly if the economy doesn’t improve, if health care reform implodes, if President Barack Obama’s numbers turn Reid-like. As the most powerful Democrat in the legislative branch, he wouldn’t just have to carry the national negatives if they exist; he would be the symbol of them — at thousands of gross rating points a week next summer.

Reid even has problems from the left, where a simple delay in that health care vote has resulted in scathing and sneering blog posts locally (The Las Vegas Gleaner) and nationally (Daily Kos). Reid is fortunate there are no evident Ned Lamonts in Nevada or he almost surely would have a significant primary challenge, too.

And local atmospherics will come into play. Having two Reids on the ballot — County Commissioner Rory Reid is seeking the governorship — cannot help the Senate majority leader as revulsion to dynasties could have an effect. And constant chatter about Reid’s ethics from the GOP — an exhumation of that Los Angeles Times series about his family’s lobbying, the recent amendments of his financial disclosures that show how wealthy he has become through land deals — could have an effect.

Reid may be able to blunt much of this through the argument, bought by many smart people, that a small state should never sacrifice having the Senate majority leader, an argument that is supposed to transcend partisanship. Reid will continue to show the value of that position with well-timed announcements of the 479th death of Yucca Mountain and millions of dollars in grants. That, with the $25 million, might just be enough to get the job done.

Except ...

Jon Ralston hosts the news discussion program “Face to Face With Jon Ralston” on Las Vegas ONE and publishes the daily e-mail newsletter “RalstonFlash.com.” His column for the Las Vegas Sun appears Sunday, Wednesday and Friday.