Analysis: What can UNLV fans expect from T.J. Otzelberger?

By Mike Grimala (contact)

Thursday, March 28, 2019 | 2 a.m.

It’s official: T.J. Otzelberger is UNLV’s new head basketball coach. Now the question is, what will the Runnin’ Rebels look like under his watch?

For a lot of Rebels fans, this is the first time they’ve ever heard of Otzelberger, who played his college ball at Division-III Wisconsin-Whitewater. But for college basketball insiders, the 41-year-old is well known as a top recruiter and sharp offensive mind with more than a decade of experience as an assistant at the NCAA level.

When Otzelberger finally got a chance to run his own team at South Dakota State, he did it his way — and the results were tremendous. During his three-year run at SDSU, Otzelberger rolled up a record of 70-33 and 35-11 in the Summit League. He won two regular-season league titles and two conference tournament championships, earning his Jackrabbits two trips to the NCAA tournament.

It was a lot of success in a short amount of time, partly because the Jackrabbits were not a bad team when Otzelberger took over in 2016-17. They had advanced to the NCAA tournament the previous year under coach Scott Nagy, and Otzelberger inherited the top scorer from that team, 6-foot-9 forward Mike Daum. It was a good foundation, and Otzelberger took advantage.

Otzelberger built the offense around Daum’s inside-outside skill set and watched him become one of the most productive players in the entire country. Daum jumped from 15.2 points per game to 25.1 points as a sophomore in his first season under Otzelberger, and though SDSU took a step back in terms of record (18-17 overall, 8-8 Summit), the Jackrabbits got hot and won the league tournament to punch Otzelberger’s first ticket to the NCAA’s.

In Year 2, Otzelberger really revved up his offensive system. The Jackrabbits increased their output from 76.7 points per game to 84.5 and stormed to a 13-1 record in the Summit League (28-7 overall), including another tournament win and a trip to the 2018 big dance.

The 2018-19 season firmly established Otzelberger’s offense as one of the most effective in the sport. With Daum leading the way (25.3 points per game), South Dakota State scored 84.5 per game again and rolled to a 24-9 record (14-2 Summit League). The Jackrabbits were upset in the first round of the league tournament, but Otzelberger put himself on the radar for bigger coaching jobs.

Can Otzelberger replicate that kind of success now that he's at UNLV?

Offensive mastermind

For fans who prefer high-scoring basketball, Otzelberger is the big ticket. He served as an assistant under free-flowing offensive minds like Greg McDermott and Fred Hoiberg, and the system Otzelberger installed at South Dakota State was the next evolutionary step.

Otzelberger’s approach is modern and analytics-friendly in every way. He emphasizes fast tempo, floor spacing, outside shooting and good shot selection as the tenets of his system, and the Jackrabbits executed it to perfection. Last season, SDSU hit the century mark in three games and scored 90-plus points on four other occasions. On Dec. 11, they destroyed Savannah State, 139-72.

It starts with outside shooting and the floor spacing it creates. Otzelberger recruits players who can threaten the defense from outside the 3-point arc, and he gives them the green light — in many cases, a mandatory green light — to launch the first open 3 they can generate. In 2018-19, South Dakota State shot 40.8 percent from 3-point range as a team, which ranked third in the nation. Five different players shot 37.0 percent or better.

Otzelberger played two big men a lot of the time, but because Daum was such a threat from the outside the Jackrabbits were still able to space the floor better than just about every other team. When Daum was the lone big man on the court, it was downright unfair.

On this play against UNR, you can see all five SDSU players spaced outside the arc. That gives the ball-handler a favorable matchup, and once he begins to penetrate, the help defender collapses. That leaves a shooter wide open for 3, and Otzelberger does not want any of his guys to hesitate on pulling the trigger:

Picture UNLV guard Amauri Hardy with the ball in his hands, going 1-on-1 against a defender who has no help behind him to protect the paint. That’s a matchup Hardy can win almost every time, either by dribbling to the rim or making the right kick-out pass when the defense helps. His skill set fits like a glove.

On this play, the Jackrabbits move the ball with pace and work it to Daum in the post. The four other SDSU players line up beyond the arc, putting Daum’s defender on an island. When two UNR help defenders sink into the paint, Daum has an easy diagonal pass for an open 3-pointer:

Of the four spot-up options on that play, two shot better than 44.0 percent from 3-point range on the season. The worst option connected on 34.6 percent, a mark which would have ranked third on this year’s UNLV team. Shooting kills, and Otzelberger recruits (and coaches) with that in mind.

Otzelberger’s system operates at a fast pace. The Jackrabbits ranked 40^th nationally in KenPom.com’s adjusted tempo this season, and many of those quick shots were 3-pointers. Otzelberger wants his players to attack early in the shot clock; on offensive possessions that began after a defensive rebound, 51.2 percent of SDSU’s shots within the first 10 seconds of the shot clock were 3-point attempts. When UNLV passes the ball up-court under Otzelberger, they will be looking for open transition 3’s.

The results speak for themselves. In 2018-19, South Dakota State scored 1.055 points per possession, which ranked No. 3 in the nation according to Synergy Sports data. By splits, the Jackrabbits’ halfcourt offense ranked third (1.042 PPP) and their transition attack ranked 36^th (1.129 PPP). KenPom rated them No. 37 in adjusted offense. By any metric, Otzelberger fielded one of the country’s best offenses.

Otzelberger puts his shooters and ball-handlers in situations that make it easy for them to make the right play. His offensive system is forward-thinking, fast-paced and highly efficient. It also looks really fun to play in. As long as he has players, he should be able to build a scoring machine in Las Vegas.

Defensive questions

As elite as South Dakota State’s offense has been under Otzelberger, there are legitimate questions about his defensive scheme. In terms of points per possession allowed, the Jackrabbits only cracked the top 200 once in Otzelberger’s three years (2017-18, when they checked in at No. 196).

Otzelberger kept things simple; his teams played man-to-man on 95.6 percent of possessions, and they only pressed in the backcourt on 25 possessions all season. They only trapped on two pick-and-rolls all year. The main goal was to keep the ball out of the paint, even at the expense of sagging off and leaving shooters unguarded.

For the season, a whopping 47.6 percent of all shots taken against SDSU were 3-pointers. Conversely, the Jackrabbits only allowed shots around the basket on 27.6 percent of attempts, which is obviously a very low ratio. But when opponents did get to the basket, they converted at a rate of 1.139 points per possession, which landed SDSU at No. 195 in the nation. To put it simply, Otzelberger focused all his resources on keeping opponents away from the rim because he knew he couldn’t defend the rim. It was a defensive game plan that practically screamed, "We are trying to outshoot you and outscore you."

Is that something that could be fixed by recruiting better athletes? Maybe by adding a shot-blocker with more rim-protection skills than the offensive-minded Daum? Possibly. But it also wouldn’t be a bad idea to bring in an assistant who can work with Otzelberger to devise a defensive scheme that complements his offensive philosophy.

Recruiting ace

Otzelberger rose to prominence as an assistant at Iowa State due to his recruiting ability. Then-Cyclones head coach Fred Hoiberg admittedly disdains recruiting, so he put Otzelberger in charge and the young assistant came through by helping to get four 4-star recruits to commit between 2010-13. Otzelberger also had a hand in bringing in forward Royce White (a future NBA first-round pick) and star guard DeAndre Kane as a transfers.

It seems to be a consensus that Otzelberger can recruit at a power-conference level. He did a very good job at South Dakota State as well, starting by re-recruiting Daum in 2016. When former SDSU coach Scott Nagy left for Wright State, Daum was coming off a very impressive freshman campaign; he would have had plenty of suitors had he chosen the transfer route. But Otzelberger got him to stick it out, and Daum blossomed into a three-time Summit League Player of the Year. That could be a good sign if Otzelberger wants to try and retain some of the Rebels who are currently testing the transfer market.

Otzelberger also scored a recruiting coup when he got a commitment from 3-star guard David Jenkins in 2017. Otzelberger had just wrapped up his first year at SDSU, and he knew Jenkins, a Tacoma, Wash., native, from his time as an assistant coach at Washington. After a prep year, Jenkins joined the Jackrabbits in 2017-18 and blossomed into a fearsome perimeter scorer this season when he averaged 19.7 points per game while making 45.3 percent of his 3-pointers.

Otzelberger also proved he can go head-to-head with bigger schools for coveted prospects. Texas Tech, Washington State, Nebraska and Colorado State all offered Caleb Grill, a 3-star shooting guard in the Class of 2019, but it was Otzelberger who landed Kansas native's commitment.

And if he has immediate holes to fill at UNLV this offseason, Otzelberger won’t be afraid to hit the transfer market. Before his first season at SDSU he brought in guard A.J. Hess as a grad transfer from Southern Utah; Hess started, scored 9.1 points per game and hit 37.1 from 3-point range. That same offseason, Otzelberger also brought in Michael Orris as a grad transfer from Northern Illinois; Orris played 30.2 minutes per game and posted 8.1 points and 4.0 assists.

Otzelberger is a gifted recruiter who can tap into the high-school pipeline and the transfer market. He’s done it at a low-level program as a head coach and at a power-conference school as an assistant. With UNLV being a destination that has historically been attractive to recruits, Otzelberger can probably construct the most talented roster in the Mountain West within three years.

Bottom line

UNLV athletic director Desiree Reed-Francois obviously had a defined idea of the kind of coach she wanted as she embarked on this search. While some outsiders called for proven winners and recognizable names, Reed-Francois wanted a young, hungry coach who fit a certain profile. The candidates she showed the most interest in were offensive innovators — coaches who played fast and embraced analytics. Otzelberger certainly fits that mold.

The job starts now. Otzelberger didn't have to build South Dakota State from the ground up, and he might not have to do it at UNLV, either. Current Rebels like Hardy, Bryce Hamilton, Joel Ntambwe and Trey Woodbury have the perimeter skills to thrive under Otzelberger's tutelage; if he can retain some (or all) of them, it will go a long way toward making UNLV a competitive team in 2019-20.

Reed-Francois is gambling on Otzelberger’s vision. He’s only got three years of experience as a head coach, but he has a clearly defined style and — with UNLV’s recruiting resources behind him — the ability to load up on talent and play a supercharged version of his already-elite offense.

Can he get his teams to play good enough defense to win in the Mountain West? That’s a huge question. Can he handle all the other stuff that goes along with being a head coach at a program that demands excellence (and annual NCAA appearances) like UNLV? Can he schedule, win over the fan base, become the face of the program and return the Rebels to prominence in what has rapidly become a competitive sports town? Those are valid questions as well.

There’s no reason Otzelberger can’t do all those things. The upside is there, and Reed-Francois is betting that he will reach his full potential as a coach over the next three years. If he does, UNLV will be in a very good place.

Mike Grimala can be reached at 702-948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Mike on Twitter at twitter.com/mikegrimala.