Instant analysis: Another late defensive collapse ends Raiders’ playoff hopes

By Mike Grimala (contact)

Saturday, Dec. 26, 2020 | 8:56 p.m.

The Raiders thought they had staved off playoff elimination when Daniel Carlson kicked a go-ahead field goal with 19 seconds remaining on Saturday, but if there's one thing we've learned this season it's that no lead is safe when the Las Vegas defense is on the field.

Trailing by two points and with no timeouts at their disposal, the Miami Dolphins — led by backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick — marched down the field and set up Jason Sanders for a game-winning 44-yard field goal to knock the Raiders out of postseason contention by a 26-25 final.

A quick look at how the Raiders managed to give away the game when the stakes were highest:

Defense is a mirage

After a season of truly bad defensive play, the Raiders appeared to be piecing together their most complete effort on that side of the ball on Saturday, holding Miami to just 13 points deep into the fourth quarter. But it was all a mirage.

Once Miami made a change at quarterback, removing risk-averse, soft-tossing rookie Tua Tagovailoa in favor of more aggressive veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Raiders’ D didn’t stand a chance.

Fitzpatrick let it rip, and in less than a quarter of play he completed 9-of-13 passes for 182 yards and a touchdown while completing two separate game-winning drives. The TD was a 59-yard catch-and-run by Myles Gaskin that perfectly highlighted the ineptitude of the defense, as linebacker Raekwon McMillan missed a tackle at the point of the catch and linebacker Cory Littleton and safety Johnathan Abram each took ludicrously poor angles, allowing Gaskin to get to the sideline and waltz in for a go-ahead score with three minutes to play.

The Raiders got a reprieve when Derek Carr led the Raiders down the field to take the lead on the ensuing drive. After a long pass-interference penalty and a first down inside the 10-yard line, the Raiders (who trailed, 23-22 at the time) killed as much clock as possible — Josh Jacobs slid down at the 1-yard line when the Dolphins, out of timeouts, tried to let him score — before kicking the field goal to take a 25-23 lead with 19 seconds left.

In the hands of a competent defense — or heck, even a bad defense — it would have been enough to win. But the Las Vegas defense is a long way from competent and still striving to get to bad. On the first play of Miami’s desperation drive, the Raiders blew a coverage and allowed Fitzpatrick to hit a 34-yard pass down the sideline; to make matters worse, defensive end Arden Key yanked on Fitzpatrick’s facemask on the play, adding 15 yards via penalty.

That allowed Miami kicker Jason Sanders to knock through a game-winning 44-yard field goal with three seconds on the clock.

For anyone who may have been encouraged by the Raiders’ apparent improvement on defense through the first 50 minutes, the final two drives were a shocking and grim reminder of just how far that unit is from being playoff-caliber.

Carr starts — and nearly finishes

Nine days after leaving the Raiders’ Week 15 loss with an injured groin, quarterback Derek Carr got the start on Saturday and took every snap, so give him props for demonstrating toughness and rehabbing hard enough to get back on the field quickly. Still, he looked shaky for most of the night — until he made what should have been the game’s biggest play, connecting with Nelson Agholor deep downfield for a go-ahead 85-yard touchdown late in the fourth quarter.

After looking tentative for the first 55 minutes or so, Carr delivered on the final two drives. First, he scrambled out of the pocket and launched a perfect bomb to Agholor down the right sideline, and Agholor took it home to give Las Vegas a 22-16 lead with 3:56 to play.

When the Raiders defense allowed a quick touchdown the other way, and Carr found himself having to deliver another game-winning drive — and he came through again. Agholor was the catalyst once again, as Carr targeted him deep and Agholor drew a long pass-interference penalty to give the Raiders at the Miami 22-yard line with 2:20 to play. After picking up another first down via penalty, Las Vegas kept the ball on the ground to kill the clock, allowing Daniel Carlson — who had missed a crucial extra point on the long Agholor TD — to kick the non-game winner with 19 seconds remaining.

Carr didn’t dazzle on Saturday. He looked tentative, took harmful sacks (including one that inexcusably pushed the Raiders out of field goal range in the first quarter) and seemed flustered by pressure. The numbers reflect his scattered performance, as he hit 21-of-34 passes for 336 yards, one touchdown pass and one touchdown run, but when the game was on the line he made the plays necessary to win it.

If his goal in rushing back from injury was to keep Marcus Mariota off the field, thus securing his starting job, Carr’s performance on Saturday would have been enough — if the Raiders had won. Instead the loss eliminated Las Vegas from playoff contention, so if Jon Gruden wants to take another look at Mariota before the season’s end, he has a perfect opportunity to do it in Week 17.

What’s next

Now sporting an 7-8 record, the Raiders’ 2020 season is effectively finished. They cannot make the playoffs, so they’ll be playing out the string when they travel to Denver next week. It’s a huge disappointment for a franchise that, in the third year of Gruden’s rebuilding effort, fully expected to make the postseason.

Instead of scoreboard watching, the main storylines going into Denver will be the quarterback situation and the continued tweaking of defense under interim coordinator Rod Marinelli. The Raiders shifted defensive back Lamarcus Joyner from slot cornerback to safety on Saturday, so that’s one angle to monitor next week. They also activated rookie linebacker Javin White and gave the former UNLV star about 20 snaps on defense against Miami, and he responded well, with two tackles and one tackle for loss. Next week might hold more playing time for White.

At QB, if Carr starts at Denver you can consider it status quo and an endorsement of Carr as the starter heading into 2021. If Mariota gets the call, it could be an indication that Gruden was intrigued by what he saw from the former No. 2 pick last week in relief and that he wants to see more before making a decision on next year’s starter. Consider Carr the prohibitive favorite, but Week 17 will tell us something.

Mike Grimala can be reached at 702-948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Mike on Twitter at twitter.com/mikegrimala.