Saturday, Jan. 11, 2020 | 2 a.m.
View more of the Sun's opinion section
Gail Collins: Bret, in the spirit of the new year, I’ll let you choose a topic: Democrats, Republicans or best choice for Oscar nominees?
I’m kinda pulling for the Democrats. Iowa caucuses just around the corner! Although if you’re interested, I’d be happy to tell you why I loved “Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood” and hated that thing with Adam Sandler yelling for two hours.
Bret Stephens: Happy new year, Gail. I’m embarrassed to admit it, but I haven’t seen either picture. Or “The Irishman”: I’m waiting for my next 10-hour flight for that one. But I did see “Frozen 2”! It’s a parable about how President Donald Trump is going to seem like an unstoppable tsunami right until October, only to be magically frozen by a dazzling if slightly chilly queen with supernatural powers.
Elizabeth Warren?
Gail: When it comes to Trump, I’m going to have to make a connection with “Joker.” Or maybe “Knives Out”?
I know we have more important things to talk about than movie faves, but ever since he’s been president, I’ve become desperately fond of escapist entertainment. Cannot tell you how many football games I’ve watched.
Bret: Shame about the Pats, Gail. Go on.
Gail: I guess we should deal with the Iran situation, at least for a minute. After which I am going to remind you that I never converse about foreign affairs because of the fact that, compared with my esteemed colleagues, I’m pretty ignorant about international issues.
Bret: Well, nobody should mourn Qassem Soleimani: He was responsible for many thousands of deaths, including hundreds of Americans. And anyone who plots the killings of Americans should not expect impunity.
So I’m not at all sorry he’s gone.
Gail: There seems to be a wide range of opinions about Soleimani, none of which are that he was a great guy the world will miss. Was he an important leader or just a has-been who was never all that effective to begin with?
Bret: Definitely important. Imagine the U.S. vice president, secretary of defense and director of the Central Intelligence Agency all rolled into one.
Gail: The only thing I know for sure is that I do not want to be involved in a serious international conflict while You Know Who is in the White House.
Bret: The question is what happens next. So far, the Iranians have taken careful steps away from the nuclear deal (though I doubt they’ll dramatically increase production of nuclear fuel) and used their influence in Iraq to get its parliament to push for the withdrawal of American forces.
Still, a larger war could happen, especially since wounded national pride is at stake. If so, it will either hand Trump an easy re-election if the war is swift, contained and decisive; or hand him a massive defeat if it’s not.
Gail: Neither of those options is desirable in any way, shape or form. Let’s go for a complicated, messy and nonviolent resolution that doesn’t satisfy anybody. And by the way, I noticed that while this administration was going nuts about a political demonstration in Iraq, nobody was saying a thing about the fact that Vladimir Putin is bragging about his new weapon that can supposedly carry a nuclear warhead 3,800 miles an hour.
Bret, this has now been about three times as long as we’ve ever talked about foreign affairs, and I’m ready to duck back into my domestic bunker. What do you think is going to happen on the impeachment front?
Bret: I wouldn’t be surprised if nothing happens, at least for a while. It’s what the Russians call a “frozen conflict.” Democrats get to tell their voters they’ve fulfilled their pledge to impeach the president and blame Senate Republicans for refusing to conduct a fair trial. Republicans can retort that Democrats were unable to muster anything more than a partisan impeachment, and now lack the courage of their convictions.
At some point, Mitch McConnell could choose to appoint his own impeachment managers, and you’d have a quick trial and even quicker acquittal. No Republicans will vote to convict. That leaves voters with the ultimate say as to whether Trump stays in office past next January.
Gail: And whether certain allegedly moderate Republican senators can explain their vote to the folks back home.
Bret: The question I ask myself, given where we are, is whether impeachment was worth it. I still think so, because censure was too weak a rebuke for what the president did. But an impeachment that doesn’t even make it out of the House sets its own bad precedent of weakening it as a tool of congressional power. What’s your view?
Gail: We’re pretty much in accord.
Bret: Not again!
Gail: The House was absolutely obligated to take a stand and go on record as saying Trump’s behavior in regard to Ukraine just doesn’t meet our constitutional standards. If the Senate fails to follow through, let history be the judge. High school debaters in 2100 will still be bringing this story up, while undoubtedly quoting every founding father from Alexander Hamilton to George Clymer.
Bret: Alternatively, they will remember it as the first impeachment (of 20) in the 21st century. Remembering each impeachment, and the issues involved, will be like recalling the names of minor Roman emperors in the fifth century. Romulus Augustulus, anyone?
Let’s hope not.
Gail: But back to the upcoming primaries. Some people think the mess in Iran makes Joe Biden look better, since he has foreign policy experience — even if it includes voting for the Iraq invasion. Some think Pete Buttigieg’s military experience makes him look strong. Certainly that’s Buttigieg’s opinion. What’s your take?
Bret: If conflict with Iran, real or prospective, becomes a major theme in 2020, I think it will elevate both men in the Democratic field for the reasons you mentioned. Bernie Sanders, too, because his name is more associated with the anti-war movement than any other candidate. Neither Warren nor Amy Klobuchar are particularly well known for their foreign policy chops, though Warren is on the Senate Armed Services Committee.
This is just a wild card, and it makes the election itself hostage to decisions made in Tehran. If, God forbid, a jetliner filled with American passengers mysteriously blows up midair in October, like Pan Am Flight 103 did over Lockerbie, Scotland, in the 1980s, voters may well blame Trump, even before anyone knows for sure who is responsible. But it’s easy to think of other scenarios that benefit Trump.
Gail: Oh God, Bret, you’re making me feel even worse about the possible downside of 2020. This is why I’m suddenly checking the NBA standings and looking forward to spring training.
Bret: Rest assured that no matter what happens this year, the Knicks will embarrass us. The key for Democrats isn’t so much to take a position on Soleimani as it is to convey a sense of sobriety when it comes to questions of peace and war.
Gail: Well, that’s certainly fair. And not too tough. If you look at the contenders, they’re not exactly a bunch of what-the-heck-let’s-party people.
Bret: If I wanted the Democratic nomination (I don’t!), or were a Democrat (I’m not!), I’d say something along these lines: “Soleimani killed Americans, and on my watch anyone who kills Americans is a dead man walking. Period. But the goal of saving American lives requires prudence and vision, not bravado, impulse and political calculation. As president, I will oppose Iran’s dangerous behavior at every turn, whether against us or our allies. But I’m not going to hazard our position in the region, or risk a reckless war, or ruin the chances for a negotiated nuclear deal, just to kill one evil but easily replaceable man. And, unlike Trump, I’m going to listen closely to my soldiers and diplomats before I go around signing kill orders just because I like feeling tough.”
Gail: I would definitely vote for you, if you’d just consider embracing “Medicare for All” and a tax hike for the wealthy.
Bret: Heaven forfend, Gail. We need further tax cuts to keep this incredible economic expansion going, and Health Savings Accounts for All so we can finally get away from the third-party payer that has bedeviled our health delivery systems for so long.
OK, now that I’ve ticked off about 80% of our audience, I’m going to wager a small bet with you that Bernie Sanders wins Iowa and New Hampshire.
Gail: Surprising! Not your tax position — I was sorta trying to egg you on. But your Bernie prognostication. Could happen, I guess. Warren is definitely slipping. And none of the others have the same big, enthusiastic base.
You don’t think Mike Bloomberg has a chance to, um, bloom?
Bret: Well, you never know. And I’m still very glad he’s in the race. But the perennial challenge for columnists is not to make the wish the parent of the thought. A Bloomberg nomination does require every other Democratic candidate to implode, which isn’t beyond the realm of possibility, and for Bloomberg to just stay in, which he has more than enough money to do.
That being said, here’s the ticket I think can happen, and can win. Biden-Klobuchar. What about you?
Gail: Funny, I’ve been thinking about that one. If Biden comes out on top, which I think is very possible even if he loses in Iowa and New Hampshire, he’ll certainly need some diversity in the second spot.
I’m ruling out Elizabeth Warren as his veep, just because an entire ticket in its 70s is sort of tough to sell. Kamala Harris’ campaign certainly didn’t knock anyone out. Cory Booker, maybe, but Klobuchar is closer to Biden in political philosophy, plus she’s from the Midwest.
But we’ll see. We’ve still got one more debate — and a couple more conversations — before Iowa. Much to discuss, Bret. Onward into 2020.
Gail Collins and Bret Stephens are columnists for The New York Times.
