Comparisons between states’ tactics to fight virus are dangerously flawed

Conservatives would have Americans believe that since COVID-19 statistics are similar in some states that took greatly different approaches to business closures and other pandemic restrictions, those precautions weren’t necessary.

That’s not just a lie, it’s a dangerous one.

The narrative stems from comparisons between such states as Florida and California, or South Dakota and Connecticut on the smaller end, whose overall numbers are indeed similar even though the governors of some of those states largely threw caution to the wind while others imposed significant restrictions.

But as numerous health experts have noted, these cherry-picked comparisons offer no proof that lockdowns and other restrictions failed. One underlying reason is that there are a huge number of factors involved in the spread, and states of even similar sizes can differ greatly in those factors. They include housing density, the demographics of the population, the number of tightly packed metros, and, most importantly, compliance with mask-wearing orders and other protective measures.

Take the Florida-California comparison, which ignores a number of critical points. Among them:

• San Francisco has maintained the lowest death rate from COVID-19 and one of the lowest infection rates among any of America’s largest cities despite being the second-densest after New York City. Why? Because San Francisco imposed a hard lockdown early in the crisis, maintained a high degree of compliance as the pandemic wore on, and, as a largely progressive community, was relatively free of conservative undermining of the efforts. It’s a strong argument that lockdowns work when everyone works together.

• California, with the nation’s largest population, suffered from having disproportionately large areas that either were unable to comply (think lower-income service industry workers living in densely populated neighborhoods) or wouldn’t comply due to political opposition and the COVID-denial narrative (think the largely conservative Central Valley). That drove up the state’s numbers.

Let’s also not forget the story of Rebekah Jones, the data scientist for the state of Florida who was fired and later targeted for state intimidation after she accused the state of manipulating its case statistics to give a falsely low impression of the threat posed by the pandemic. That high-profile incident was followed by a Florida Sun-Sentinel investigation revealing that under Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, the state “suppressed unfavorable facts, dispensed dangerous misinformation, dismissed public health professionals, and promoted the views of scientific dissenters” who supported the governor’s lax approach to the pandemic.

In other words, no one knows whether Florida’s official statistics are accurate and there is good reason to doubt them at this point.

It’s also worth pondering another reason for the timing of these inappropriate comparisons. Enough voters angry at the lockdown have signed on to a recall of California’s Democratic governor, Gavin Newsom. The GOP, with its loose tether to any truths these days, would dearly like to make false claims to try to rout a Democrat.

The simple truth is that these comparisons aren’t apples-to-apples. A University of North Carolina epidemiology professor summed it up well in a story in Healthline, saying the California-Florida comparison was a matter of matching up a “restrictive state that’s done worse than other restrictive states” against a “permissive state that’s fared better than other permissive states.”

“This comparison isn’t an accident,” the professor said. “They are stacking the deck by choosing outliers that favor their argument.”

But none of this has reduced the eagerness of conservative media nationally and locally to promote this lie as they have so many others. These are the same organizations that backed the fumbling of the COVID-19 crisis by the former presidential administration, leading to a shocking loss of American lives. Now they obviously can’t stand to see how a Democratic president and Congress have moved effectively in combating the illness. The false line of attack over the state-to-state comparisons is an effort to cover the Republicans’ ineptitude.

The danger of this lie is obvious: It may prompt people to stop complying with restrictions and dial up pressure on leaders like Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak to let down our guard.

To her discredit, Mayor Carolyn “Las Vegas will be guinea pigs” Goodman kicked that door wide open during a speech at Wednesday’s Las Vegas City Council meeting.

“ ‘The science’ has not proven that complete shutdowns accomplished any more than more moderate, reasonable precautions,” she said, while also seeming to call for a complete end to capacity restrictions. “What is the rationale for continuing at 50% capacity with other precautions like mask mandates in place, in addition to increasing vaccinations?” she said.

What’s the rationale? Same as always, Madame Mayor: To slow the spread of the disease, keep people from getting sick, save lives and protect the long-term viability of our tourist industry as well.

We’re confident Sisolak won’t bow to pressure to rush toward reopening, as his graduated reopening plan is working. When businesses increased to 50% capacity Monday, up from 35% two weeks early and 25% before that, our new cases and infection rates remained at a low level. That’s a clear sign that we’re making progress. Now, as vaccines continue to roll out, we can continue to move forward safely if we wear masks, maintain good hand hygiene, etc.

What we can’t do is fall for this false narrative about precautions. Our own experience tells us we’re on the right path.