NCAA Tournament betting cheat sheet: Scouting report on this year’s contenders

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, March 18, 2021 | 2 a.m.

Brackets have deadlines, but betting is continuous throughout the NCAA Tournament. It’s never too late to get into the action in local sportsbooks—betting opportunities will persist all the way through the national championship game, scheduled for April 4 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

More than likely, it’ll be one of the top teams on the betting board celebrating at the conclusion of the tournament. In the past 30 years, only one national champion—Connecticut in 2014—has overcome pre-tournament odds higher than 30-to-1.

That means one of the nine teams at the top of the betting board at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook is the most likely champion. But for the sake of this exercise, let’s double it and look at every team listed at 60-to-1 or less.

These are the 17 teams that will in all likelihood define the 2021 NCAA Tournament, and therefore, determine personal betting success. Here’s why you should like—and dislike—each of them, along with their current SuperBook odds to win the championship.

Baylor Bears

• Odds to win: 6-to-1

• Seed: South No. 1

• Record: 22-2

• Why they’ll succeed: The tournament’s best backcourt. If the cliché about guard play being the most important thing in March holds up, the Bears will be tough to beat behind Jared Butler, MaCio Teague and Davion Mitchell.

• Why they won’t: They’re not playing their best. The Bears started the season 18-0 but have now lost two of their past six, and escaped narrowly in a couple of others, after a coronavirus outbreak.

Gonzaga Bulldogs

• Title odds: 9-to-5

• Seed: West No. 1

• Record: 26-0

• Why they’ll succeed: They’re the best team. Gonzaga is undefeated and historically efficient, having played just one game decided by less than double digits all year—a win over fellow contender West Virginia.

• Why they won’t: They’re not battle-tested. The lone knock on the Bulldogs is their lack of competition, as the West Coast Conference has given them an easier regular-season path than every other team at the top of the board.

Illinois Fighting Illini

• Title odds: 9-to-2

• Seed: Midwest No. 1

• Record: 23-6

• Why they’ll succeed: Ayo Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn. No team has a better one-two, inside-outside punch than the Illini with their combination of a playmaking, sharpshooting wing in Dosunmu and dominating big-man in Cockburn.

• Why they won’t: Their path is fraught is peril. Conventional wisdom has Illinois’ draw as the toughest facing a No. 1 seed, and oddsmakers’ power ratings would agree.

Michigan Wolverines

• Title odds: 8-to-1

• Seed: East No. 1

• Record: 20-4

• Why they’ll succeed: They have the best résumé. The Big Ten was the best conference all year, and Michigan won its regular-season title and started league play by winning 13 of 14 games.

• Why they won’t: They just lost one of their best players. Senior swingman Isaiah Livers, the Wolverines’ second-leading scorer, will reportedly miss the tournament after suffering a stress fracture in his foot during the Big Ten Tournament.

Houston Cougars

• Title odds: 14-to-1

• Seed: Midwest No. 2

• Record: 24-3

• Why they’ll succeed: They have no weaknesses. Offense, defense, rebounding—the Cougars are solid across the board and rank near the nation’s best in every conceivable category.

• Why they won’t: They don’t have starpower. Unlike the teams ahead of them, the Cougars don’t have a surefire All-American, and thus probably won’t have the best player on the floor if they get deep into the tournament.

Alabama Crimson Tide

• Title odds: 20-to-1

• Seed: East No. 2

• Record: 24-6

• Why they’ll succeed: They own the 3-point line. The Crimson Tide play a smart, uber-modern style that has them shooting lot of 3-pointers and guarding against their opponents making lots of 3-pointers.

• Why they won’t: The 3-point line can be volatile. Relying on long-range shots increases variance, and if they aren’t falling in a game, the Tide might be in trouble.

Iowa Hawkeyes

• Title odds: 20-to-1

• Seed: West No. 2

• Record: 21-8

• Why they’ll succeed: The nation’s best offense. Likely National Player of the Year Luka Garza can score at will—and so can many of his teammates.

• Why they won’t: An increasingly mediocre defense. Shootouts are the norm with Iowa, and most of its eight losses have come when it’s wound up on the wrong side of them.

Ohio State Buckeyes

• Title odds: 25-to-1

• Seed: South No. 2

• Record: 21-9

• Why they’ll succeed: They’re experienced. Few, if any other teams on this list have five upperclassmen among their top six scorers, and the outlier—sophomore E.J. Liddell—is a two-year starter and arguably their most proven player.

• Why they won’t: They’re inconsistent. A seven-game winning streak midseason was followed by a four-game losing streak to end the regular season, representative of the Buckeyes’ erratic nature.

Texas Longhorns

• Title odds: 25-to-1

• Seed: West No. 3

• Record: 19-7

• Why they’ll succeed: Talent. Coach Shaka Smart’s years bringing in highly ranked recruiting classes are finally paying off, as the Longhorns can overwhelm with athleticism.

• Why they won’t: Carelessness. Texas ranks 236th in the nation with a 20.1% turnover rate, per kenpom.com.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

• Title odds: 40-to-1

• Seed: South No. 6

• Record: 17-10

• Why they’ll succeed: Tenacity. No one wants to play the Red Raiders, who grind opponents down and impose the same physical style they used to reach the national championship game in 2019.

• Why they won’t: They’re reeling. Texas Tech has lost five of eight games and shown little of the ability that had some thinking it was a contender earlier in the season.

Purdue Boilermakers

• Title odds: 40-to-1

• Seed: South No. 4

• Record: 18-9

• Why they’ll succeed: Trevion Williams. Purdue’s big man might have been Player of the Year-worthy in any other conference, but was overshadowed in the talent-rich Big Ten.

• Why they won’t: Depth. The Boilermakers allot the fewest number of minutes to their bench of any contender, which could be their undoing if they experience foul trouble or fatigue.

Oklahoma State Cowboys

• Title odds: 50-to-1

• Seed: Midwest No. 4

• Record: 20-8

• Why they’ll succeed: Cade Cunningham. The imminent first pick in the upcoming NBA Draft is the most electric player in college basketball.

• Why they won’t: They’re otherwise ordinary. Cunningham elevates the Cowboys, but their statistical profile otherwise speaks of a team that would be lucky to advance past the first two rounds.

West Virginia Mountaineers

• Title odds: 50-to-1

• Seed: Midwest No. 3

• Record: 18-9

• Why they’ll succeed: Their new scheme. Coach Bob Huggins has adapted to the profile of his players and implemented a more methodical game plan around the strengths of Derek Culver and Miles McBride.

• Why they won’t: Their new scheme. West Virginia’s old “Press Virginia” style used to be a big asset in the tournament, and now it’s gone.

Kansas Jayhawks

• Title odds: 50-to-1

• Seed: West No. 3

• Record: 20-8

• Why they’ll succeed: They’re playing their best at the right time. The Jayhawks have won eight of nine games—with the only loss coming in overtime versus Texas—as they’ve enlivened what had been an anemic offense.

• Why they won’t: They’re not that talented. This is not a vintage Kansas team after losing two All-Americans from a 2020 squad ranked No. 1 overall before the season got canceled.

Arkansas Razorbacks

• Title odds: 60-to-1

• Seed: South No. 3

• Record: 22-6

• Why they’ll succeed: They’re healthy and peaking. Once they finally got their full team aboard after a couple months of setbacks, the Razorbacks reeled off eight straight wins before losing to LSU in the SEC Tournament.

• Why they won’t: They’ve been the luckiest team on this list. Arkansas has caught a lot of breaks in close games—including wins in their last three decided by six points or less—and that tends to regress.

Florida State Seminoles

• Title odds: 60-to-1

• Seed: East No. 4

• Record: 16-6

• Why they’ll succeed: Explosiveness. The Seminoles can blow opponents away when five-star freshman Scottie Barnes and senior counterpart M.J. Walker are fully activated.

• Why they won’t: Mistakes. The Seminoles are often just as likely to blow themselves away with one of the tournament’s highest turnover rates and defensive indifference.

Virginia Cavaliers

• Title odds: 60-to-1

• Seed: West No. 4

• Record: 18-6

• Why they’ll succeed: System and pedigree. The Cavaliers are always going to shorten the shot clock and work for the best look, a strategy they used to win the last tournament in 2019.

• Why they won’t: Coronavirus. After winning the ACC regular-season title, Virginia pulled out of the conference tournament after positive COVID-19 tests, went into quarantine and isn’t expected to practice before the NCAA Tournament.

This story originally appeared in Las Vegas Weekly.