A five-step plan for attacking the mountain of Super Bowl 56 props

By Case Keefer (contact)

Friday, Feb. 11, 2022 | 2 a.m.

With hundreds of ways to bet the Super Bowl at every sports book, it can be easy to feel overwhelmed and unsure of where to start.

Employing a strategy to whittle down the betting board can help. For Super Bowl 56, let’s zero in on some mismatches and see where they lead as far as proposition wagers.

Here are five such mismatches and how to take advantage of them at Nevada’s biggest sports book operator — Caesars Sports (formerly William Hill).

Mismatch: Rams’ defensive line vs. Bengals’ offensive line

This is the most obvious disparity in the game, and that almost can’t be overstated. The Rams have one of the best defensive lines of the past several years in the NFL and rate first in the league in defensive pass-rush win rate. The Bengals rank 31st in the league in offensive pass-rush win rate.

Bet: Over 5 total sacks in the game -130 (i.e. risking $130 to win $100)

The Bengals also have an above-average pass rush that will go up against a good, but not great, Rams’ offensive line. Cincinnati should be able to chip in a sack or two itself and let Los Angeles do the rest in cashing this ticket.

Mismatch: Bengals’ coverage against tight ends vs. Rams tight end Kendall Blanton

Cincinnati rates 24th in the league against opposing tight ends by Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings. Rams starter Tyler Higbee might have run wild in this matchup, but he suffered a knee injury against the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game, and even if he plays, he won’t be at full strength. Luckily for the Rams, Blanton proved he was capable of holding a bigger role, with five catches for 57 yards to help beat the 49ers.

Bet: Blanton over 21.5 receiving yards

This number is too short, perhaps overestimating the chance that Higbee plays close to his full allotment at snaps. It might also be worth looking at backing Blanton to score a touchdown at +340 (i.e. risking $100 to win $340).

Mismatch: Rams’ deep pass coverage vs. Bengals’ usual game-plan

There’s no doubt Cincinnati will look to manufacture several deep shots from quarterback Joe Burrow to receiver Ja’Marr Chase, but those plays might not be as readily available as they have been throughout the season. The Rams are second in defending deep passes per DVOA. Superstar cornerback Jalen Ramsey will pose a significant test for the rookie Chase.

Bet: Chase under 82.5 receiving yards

Targeting under 28.5 for Chase’s longest reception is also worthwhile, but this bet gives a little more wiggle room in case he slips away and gets into the open field on one occasion or two.

Mismatch: Bengals’ rush defense vs. Rams running back Cam Akers

Not all our mismatches can be pro-Rams, right? To mix in one for the Bengals, let’s look to the season as a whole, where they’ve been solid against the run. That’s somewhat hidden, because Cincinnati has given up steady production on the ground in the playoffs, but that’s largely because it has played better running teams than LA. The Rams’ running game has plummeted in efficiency since losing starter Darrell Henderson to a knee injury late in the season.

Bet: Akers under 64.5 rushing yards

Everyone is rooting for Akers, because he’s a great story, having returned only five months after tearing his Achilles to play in the postseason. But he hasn’t looked the same, gaining only 151 yards on 54 carries—2.8 yards per carry—in three games.

Mismatch: Rams vs. Bengals

The overall quality of these rosters is about as wide a gap as the Super Bowl has produced in many years. No, the current line of Rams -4.5 doesn’t seem short when weighing what has happened late in the season. But it would have seemed short for most of the season. It still could arguably be a couple points short if you believe the Rams deserve any home-field advantage for the Super Bowl being played at their own SoFi Stadium.

Bet: Rams alternate line -10.5 +225 (i.e. risking $100 to win $225)

Six straight years passed without a Super Bowl blowout, but there’s a good chance that a second lopsided outcome in a row is on the way.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or