Inflection points: Four key games on the Raiders’ schedule next season

By Case Keefer (contact)

Friday, May 13, 2022 | 2 a.m.

With parity an ever-defining characteristic of the NFL, most teams’ seasons come down to a few inflection points on the regular-season schedule.

After the NFL revealed next season’s full schedule last night, let’s try to identify those inflection points for the 2022-2023 Las Vegas Raiders as they try to reach the postseason for the second straight year.

Read below for what looks like four of their most important games, and an explanation for why that might be the case. Find their full schedule for next season here.

Week 4 — vs. Denver Broncos, 1:25 p.m., Sunday Oct. 2

The whole football world has spent the last couple months declaring the AFC West one of the toughest divisions in NFL history with four teams that look playoff ready.

While it’s hard to dispute that, and Las Vegas and Denver deserve to be squarely in the conversation, they also have more unknowns than Kansas City and the Los Angeles Chargers. Both the Raiders and Broncos are breaking in new coaching staffs — led by Josh McDaniels and Nathaniel Hackett, respectively — and schemes while the Chiefs and Chargers are more picking up where they left off last season. Denver is also welcoming a new quarterback in Russell Wilson but should have a continuity edge on defense as compared to a Las Vegas side implementing an entirely new system under coordinator Patrick Graham.

The Raiders open the first five weeks of the season with three games against AFC West opponents with a Week 1 trip to the Chargers and a Week 5 trip to the Chiefs. The Broncos’ game is the only one where they’re favored, currently -1 at STN Sports as compared to +4.5 at the Chargers and +5 at the Chiefs.

Starting 1-2 in the division might be a slight disappointment, but understandable given the road games and unfamiliarity with the new staff. Starting 0-3 would be a borderline disaster for a team with as high of expectations as the Raiders, and the Broncos’ game looks like the surest spot for victory.

Week 11 — at Denver Broncos, 1:05 p.m., Sunday Nov. 20

Raiders’ fans might be screaming at the screen by now.

“The Donkeys again!?,” I can hear with a grimace. “Haven’t we swept them two years in a row?”

Yes, and yes, but the reason Denver makes the list twice is more about the scheduling spot of the second game. It’s a tough one for Las Vegas.

The trip to Empower Field at Mile High comes in the middle of a treacherous stretch consisting of four road games in five weeks. That includes a back-to-back on the other side of the country with Week 8 and 9 against New Orleans and Jacksonville, respectively.

The Raiders come home for another tough game against the Colts before then shipping off for the second game against the Broncos. Teams typically underperform their expectation when logging that many miles in short amount of time, but the Raiders can’t afford such a slip as they open the back half of their AFC West schedule just before Thanksgiving.

Week 15 — vs. New England Patriots, 5:20 p.m., Sunday Dec. 18

The Raiders’ lone Sunday Night Football assignment of the year could carry significant playoff stakes. It’s not just the AFC West where competition shapes up to be rigorous; it’s the whole conference.

The wild-card race should be, well, wild and these are two teams that figure to be in the thick of it. The Buffalo Bills are the biggest favorite to win their division in the AFC at STN, at -250 (i.e. risking $250 to win $100) to win the East ahead of the second-choice Patriots at +375 (risking $100 to win $375). The Raiders meanwhile are the longest shot in the AFC West at +550.

That’s not to say these teams aren’t capable of surprising and winning their divisions, but it’s more likely they’re competing for wild cards — just like last year. Las Vegas ultimately finished with the No. 5 seed while New England was the No. 6 with both posting 10-7 records.

The Raiders reached the playoffs last year by winning their final four games and starting the same part of the schedule hot against a fellow contender could be key this season.

Week 18 — vs. Kansas City Chiefs, TBD, Saturday Jan. 7 OR Sunday Jan. 8

Beating the Chiefs at Allegiant Stadium is a hurdle the Raiders need to clear sooner rather than later.

It was a different regime, but the organization made it no secret how much it felt it was chasing Kansas City upon moving to Las Vegas. The rest of the division may have cut down the gap between themselves and the Chiefs, but someone still needs to officially dethrone the champions.

The Chiefs have won the AFC West in six straight seasons — the NFL’s longest current division win streak.

How sweet would it be for the Raiders to end that reign in the final game of the regular season? That could be in play here.

It’s been five years since the Raiders beat the Chiefs in a home game. They came close two years ago in the rivalry’s debut at Allegiant before getting blown out last season.

The margins in the AFC playoff race look like they’re going to be so thin that, for the second straight year, the Raiders may have to earn their spot in with a final-week victory.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or