Las Vegas Sun

May 21, 2024

OPINION:

Could immigrants be the new swing voters?

Yajaira Gonzalez became a U.S. citizen and a registered Democrat on the same day.

She arrived from Mexico 20 years ago, and was granted temporary legal status in 2012 after President Barack Obama established DACA, the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program. The policy allows some immigrants who were brought illegally to the U.S. as children to avoid deportation.

After Gonzalez married and gained citizenship, joining the Democratic Party seemed a natural step. She appreciated the party’s relatively supportive stance toward immigration and immigrants, a contrast with the antagonism of Republicans under President Donald Trump.

But Gonzalez, a scholarship coordinator at the University of Nebraska in Omaha, has been disappointed with President Joe Biden.

“I would like to see immigration reform for undocumented immigrants and a path to citizenship for ‘Dreamers,’ ” — as young immigrants under the DACA program are known. “I would also like to see more Latino people in the next president’s Cabinet.”

Gonzalez said she could see herself backing some other candidate for president in 2024 — a Republican, even — depending on his or her views on immigration. First, though, she would “have to see what their platforms are.”

Gonzalez, 28, was among those who took part in a nationwide survey conducted by The Los Angeles Times in partnership with KFF, a nonprofit formerly known as the Kaiser Family Foundation.

Her views — an affinity for the Democratic Party but a willingness to consider alternatives — reflect a widespread ambivalence among a voting group that is considered an essential part of the Democratic base.

The survey was conducted earlier this year among more than 3,300 immigrants, who were interviewed in one of 10 languages. The first-of-its-kind research was intended to develop a clearer picture of the immigrant population in the U.S., where roughly 1 in 6 adults were born abroad.

In recent years, much attention has focused on two sets of voters considered key to winning the presidency. The first is blue-collar workers in the industrial Midwest. The second is college-educated residents of the Sunbelt’s burgeoning suburbs. Both remain crucial to the prospects of the two major parties.

But the Times/KFF poll suggests there’s another potential swing group: the nation’s immigrants.

Among its gleanings, the poll found that the American dream is alive and well, at least among those who came from abroad, despite the sour mood that suffuses much of the country.

Overwhelming majorities of those interviewed said that their financial situation was better because of their move to the U.S. and that educational opportunities for themselves or their children had also improved.

Turning to politics, the survey confounded some of the conventional wisdom surrounding the immigrant community and its presumed partisanship. While leaning Democratic, the ranks include a large number of voters not strongly wed to either major party.

Asked which party better represents their political views, about a third said the Democrats, while 16% named the GOP. A quarter said neither party, and the rest were not sure.

“I don’t think there’s a party out there that really represents most of middle America today,” said Shawn Chen, 42, who came with his family from Taiwan when he was 9 years old. He lives in Charlotte, N.C., and works for a supply-chain firm.

Chen left the GOP about 16 years ago, put off by President George W. Bush and some of his policies. But he didn’t join the Democrats; Chen sees both parties caught in the grip of special interests and too profligate.

“From an economic standpoint, all we do is spend,” Chen said. “Our national debt is growing at a significant rate, and (it) doesn’t seem like there’s an end in sight from either party.”

Strikingly, given the hard-edged rhetoric of Trump and fellow Republicans over the past several years, the poll did not turn up a huge Democratic advantage on the volatile issue of immigration.

Just over a third of respondents said immigrants in the U.S. have been better off under Biden, while 16% said they were better off when Trump was in office. About half said it made no difference who sat in the White House.

Immigrants were also asked which party they perceived as representing their interests. Under half — 46% — said Democrats did so very or at least somewhat well, compared with 20% who said the same about the GOP. At least 3 in 10 said they were not sure how well either party represents immigrant interests.

In focus groups conducted as a part of the nationwide survey, some respondents said they felt the country’s immigrants were being “used as pawns” by politicians seeking office or were being courted “just for their vote.” Many said voting made no difference.

Julian Mensah, who spoke in a follow-up interview, said politicians had done little to address what he cares most about: social justice.

“I just feel there’s a lot of lip service,” said Mensah, 38.

An immigrant from Ghana, Mensah arrived in the U.S. with his family at age 2. He raises money to help run one of Dallas’ largest homeless shelters, and though he’s a registered Democrat, he considers himself more of a political independent.

He feels most political power these days rests with “old white males.”

He added: “I just think they aren’t in touch with my generation.”

That’s a widely shared sentiment regarding the two presidential front-runners.

If Trump, 77, and Biden, 81, end up as the two major-party nominees, it could take a good deal of persuading to convince a significant chunk of the immigrant population to support either with very much enthusiasm.

And given the nation’s deeply discontented electorate, is there anything more American these days than that?

Mark Barabak is a columnist for the Los Angeles Times.