Should you bet on or against the NCAA Tournament’s top 16 seeded men’s teams?

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, March 16, 2023 | 2 a.m.

The most memorable March Madness moments often involve upsets, but that’s largely because there aren’t all that many of them.

A few Goliaths will fall during the NCAA Tournament’s first weekend, but the majority of them will almost surely still be standing when the Sweet 16 begins on March 23. That’s why, from a betting perspective, it’s most useful to start your handicapping from the top of the bracket.

Zeroing in on which of the best teams to back, and which ones to fade, might be the best approach for the those planning to gamble on the tournament who haven’t followed college basketball closely for the last five months. We’ll run through the top 16 teams below, with a quick scouting report followed by a decision on whether they generally look like a team to bet on or against throughout the tournament.

Keep in mind that a team could easily make the Final Four while being an unprofitable wager against the point spread. This exercise is an attempt to figure out whether teams are currently undervalued or overvalued by the betting market.

South Region

No. 1 seed Alabama: The Crimson Tide ran roughshod over the SEC Tournament to claim the overall No. 1 seed, but they were trending downwards before that with four straight losses against the spread. They’re also embroiled in controversy; their best player, top NBA prospect Brandon Miller, has been allowed to play through an investigation in which former teammate Darius Miles was charged with capital murder. Miller is regarded as “a cooperative witness” in the case despite allegedly transporting the gun used to kill 23 -year-old Jamae Harris. Conclusion: Bet Against.

No. 2 seed Arizona: The rest of the Pac-12 Conference might be somewhat used to the Wildcats’ unique blend of size, speed and spacing, best exemplified by big man Azuolas Tubelis. But it’s a challenge for the rest of the country, as evidenced by a 12-0 nonconference record that included wins over No. 4 seed Tennessee and No. 6 seed Creighton. Conclusion: Bet On.

No. 3 seed Baylor: The Bears’ backcourt of Adam Flagler, LJ Cryer and Keyonte George tantalizes on offense but disappoints on defense. Teams with statistical profiles as middling on the defensive end as Baylor’s typically bow out of the tournament early. Conclusion: Bet Against.

No. 4 seed Virginia: Coach Tony Bennett always has his teams well-prepared and methodical, but that only goes so far. Talent-wise, Virginia could be the weakest of the top-seeded teams in the tournament. Conclusion: Bet Against.

East Region

No. 1 seed Purdue: Big man Zach Edey is the runaway favorite for National Player of the Year honors, but the pieces around him are mostly underwhelming. Perception is down on the Boilermakers after repeated tournament flameouts in the past, but that shouldn’t be held against this year’s new-look group. Conclusion: Bet On.

No. 2 seed Marquette: Picked ninth place in the preseason Big East poll, the Golden Eagles came out of nowhere to win both the conference’s regular-season and tournament titles. They play well together but might be outmanned against teams that recruit on a higher level. Conclusion: Bet Against.

No. 3 seed Kansas State: Kansas State was picked to finish last in the Big 12 before first-year coach Jerome Tang sparked a dream season for the Wildcats. But they lack depth, with few top-level players behind stars Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell. Conclusion: Bet Against.

No. 4 seed Tennessee: The Volunteers had the top-rated defense in the country for the majority of the season but aren’t as smooth on the offensive end. They recently lost star point guard Zakai Zeigler to injury, and while it’s a big loss, their defensive infrastructure should remain a major hurdle for opponents to clear. Conclusion: Bet On.

Midwest Region

No. 1 seed Houston: The Cougars looked like the best team in the nation for most of the season but were beaten soundly by No. 8 seed Memphis in the American Athletic

Conference Tournament championship game. They were playing without star guard Marcus Sasser, however, and he should recover enough from a groin injury to be effective in the tournament. Conclusion: Bet On.

No. 2 seed Texas: There might be no team more well-rounded on both ends of the floor with a better complementary roster than the Longhorns. The concern is the bench, where interim coach Rodney Terry has never led a team to a tournament victory. Conclusion: Bet On.

No. 3 seed Xavier: The Musketeers are explosive offensively but lost star big man Zach Freemantle to injury midway through the conference season and remain banged-up elsewhere. Few teams seeded this highly have such little depth. Conclusion: Bet Against.

No. 4 seed Indiana: Center Trayce Jackson-Davis has been one of the best players in the nation, but the Hoosiers are arguably too reliant on him and play the type of throwback style that has contributed to the Big Ten conference’s struggles in recent tournaments. Indiana also doesn’t have a lockdown defense to fall back on if opponents figure out how to slow Jackson-Davis. Conclusion: Bet Against.

West Region

No. 1 seed Kansas: In stark contrast to last year, when it won the national championship, Kansas received an extremely tough draw this season. That’s problematic for a team as matchup-dependent as the Jayhawks, who lack the reliable big man they have almost always leaned on in the past. Conclusion: Bet Against.

No. 2 seed UCLA: Swingman Jaime Jaquez is an All-American who helped lead the Bruins to the Final Four in 2021, but his top sidekick, Jaylen Clark, was recently lost to an injury. Defense is UCLA’s calling card, and it’s hard to envision it being as devastating without Clark, the Pac-12’s Defensive Player of the Year. Conclusion: Bet Against.

No. 3 seed Gonzaga: Most have tired of the Bulldogs because of the way they’ve perennially disappointed in March, but three-time All-American Drew Timme and local native Julian Strawther shouldn’t be overlooked. Gonzaga rates first in the nation in offensive efficiency by a large margin. Conclusion: Bet On.

No. 4 seed Connecticut: The Huskies looked like one of the best teams in the nation to start and finish the regular season, but the trouble came in the middle, when they went 2-6 during one particularly troublesome stretch. Still, few point guard/center combinations are more lethal than UConn’s Tristen Newton and Adama Sanogo. Conclusion: Bet On.

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