Tuesday, Nov. 21, 2023 | 2 a.m.
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Nov. 5, 2024 is less than 350 days away and already the freight train of what might be the most consequential election of our lives is careening down the track.
Recent polling by The New York Times and Siena College indicates that in five of the six battleground states won by President Joe Biden in 2020, Donald Trump currently holds a head-to-head edge among registered voters. All other things being equal, if those opinions hold, it would mean a 302-236 Electoral College victory for Trump in 2024.
Oh no! … said the nation’s Democrats at the specter of four more years of Donald Trump.
Oh yeah! … said Trump’s newly energized supporters.
OMG! … said sensible Republicans and independents who don’t like Biden but think he’d be less disastrous than another Trump presidency.
Just two days after the poll was released, Democrats scored substantial victories by reasserting control of the Virgina state legislature, retaining the governorship in deep-red Kentucky, squelching temporarily ascendant Republicans in New Jersey, increasing their Supreme Court advantage to 5-2 in Pennsylvania, and scoring big statewide victories on abortion and recreational marijuana in Ohio.
Oh no! … said the nation’s Republicans, reeling from their fourth straight national electoral defeat and what it might portend.
Oh yeah! … said the nation’s Democrats, immediately forgetting about The New York Times/Siena College poll and predicting that their wins in Kentucky and Ohio could mean a turnaround success in those two red states and beyond, for their president and their party.
OMG! … said sensible Republicans and independents who wish the GOP would recognize that abortion has become an electoral albatross and that the party’s fealty to Trump could set them up for a fifth straight disaster in 2024.
With the election still a year away, the instinct to tell people to get a grip is strong. Predictions and polls this far out are foolish — but of course that doesn’t stop us from making and conducting them.
The truth is that these events are not without meaning. It just might not mean what so many people hope. And fear.
I can’t predict what’s going to happen a year from now any better than you can. But here’s what I hope happens:
• The Republican Party, somehow, steps away from Trump. It would be best if the party finally comes to its senses and realizes that he has been the source of many of their problems over the past five years — but I really don’t care how it happens. A conviction on one of the many criminal charges he is facing would do fine as well.
I can’t explain the hold he has on so many otherwise intelligent people. He has led Republicans to four straight national losses, with a fifth on the way. He needs to go.
• All but one of the remaining challengers to Trump for the Republican presidential nomination step aside, leaving the party’s reasonable voters with a realistic chance to unseat him.
If you have watched any of the three GOP debates, you can’t help but be impressed by Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor and United Nations ambassador: her grasp of international issues; her measured and pragmatic demeanor; her quick wit and her fire when needed. None of the others can beat Trump. They need to do the right thing for their country and their party and step aside, giving Haley the chance to take on Trump one on one.
Trump supporters might point to that Times/Siena poll, but here’s the best part of it:
The same poll that had Trump beating Biden in five of the six battleground states by an aggregate 4% showed Haley beating Biden in all six states, and by an aggregate eight points. And this is early days, before most of the country has really gotten to know her. She has the best chance — against Trump, and against Biden.
• The Republicans understand that hitching themselves to the anti-abortion wagon is a losing proposition.
I am unapologetically pro-life, so I say that with regret. But the evidence is clear: Democratic victories in Virginia, Kentucky, Pennsylvania and, of course, Ohio were directly tied to overwhelming public support of abortion rights — and their success in tying their Republican opponents to the most extreme anti-abortion positions, whether it was true or not.
Haley is also pro-life, but as usual has the most sensible approach: “Nothing’s gonna happen if we don’t get 60 votes in the Senate,” she said in a CBS interview in April, pointing out that, “We haven’t had 60 pro-life senators in 100 years.”
“Why try and divide people further?”
Exactly. The people have spoken. Republicans should follow Haley’s lead and move on with positions people will support, both in their quest for the presidency and lower offices.
The Democrats seem stuck with Joe Biden. The Republicans need to take a hard, practical look at the future, and an even more practical look at Nikki Haley.
If not, we’ll have another Trump/Biden choice.
Ted Diadiun is a columnist for cleveland.com
