Do immigrants make us less safe?

Many Americans think immigrants are more likely to commit crimes, making our communities less safe. A 2024 poll by the Pew Research Center found that 57% of individuals surveyed thought migrants increased crime in the United States. More than three-fourths of Republicans think this, while less than a third of Democrats agree. The evidence does not support this view.

Former President Donald Trump has made the issue a key component of his campaign, calling for fewer immigrants and more deportations. Trump uses anecdotal examples of immigrants who have committed serious crimes to bolster his position. This is a poor way to generalize and judge immigrants’ effect on crime.

Many immigrants, especially those who are undocumented, tend to earn lower wages. This occurs if the individual has less education or limited English language skills. They may also be discriminated against in labor markets because they lack legal status. A low income increases the chances an individual might engage in criminal activities. Individuals or immigrants who are young and male also tend to be more likely to commit crimes.

However, a more significant number of immigrants increase the demand for local businesses, stimulating local employment options and income, and reduces immigrant crime. Immigrants are highly motivated risk-takers seeking economic opportunity and have a lower propensity toward crime.

Legal punishment deters criminal activity. For immigrants, the penalties are far greater than for native-born Americans. While both groups serve prison time and pay fines for their crimes, immigrants face additional penalties. They will be deported, barred from reentry, and cannot become naturalized citizens in the future. This has a strong deterrent effect.

What matters is the net effect of these forces on criminal behavior. If the effect of higher penalties and economic growth exceeds the effects of initially lower income, discrimination and demographic factors, then immigrants will be less likely to engage in crime.

Studies that separate documented from undocumented immigrants use data from Texas, the only state that provides information on the legal status of an arrested immigrant. Combining state arrest data with information from the Department of Homeland Security enables the identification of undocumented versus documented immigrants.

Using this information, researchers find that for violent, property, drug and traffic crimes, native-born individuals have higher crime rates than immigrants.

Undocumented immigrants have the lowest rate of the three groups in each crime category. For violent and property crime rates, the crimes of greatest interest, native-born individuals’ rates can be two and four times higher, respectively, than undocumented immigrants. Other research sometimes finds no significant effect of immigrants and crime.

Another study compared the incarceration rates of immigrants to native-born Americans. Immigrants did have higher incarceration rates during the 19th century. For the first 50 years of the 20th century, incarceration rates were similar between the two groups. However, since 1960, immigrants were 30% less likely to be incarcerated relative to native-born Americans. Another study finds even undocumented immigrants are 33% less likely to be institutionalized, adjusting for age and education.

The results from the research tell us that documented and undocumented immigrants are less likely to engage in crime and be imprisoned. Immigration does not make our communities less safe. Trump uses voters’ unwarranted fears about immigrant criminal behavior to help himself get reelected. The evidence does not fit his narrative.

Robert Krol is an emeritus professor of economics at California State University, Northridge. He is the author of “Effects of Immigration on Entrepreneurship and Innovation,” published in The Cato Journal. He wrote this for InsideSources.com.