Super Picks: Where to lay your money in the most popular markets heading into Super Bowl LX

Every single piece of information that can be found in the Super Bowl box score is available to be wagered on in Nevada sportsbooks.

Thousands of betting options are spread across the state’s casinos and mobile apps, but it’s no secret as to the most popular ones. The traditional point spread and total still loom large, as do more newer-aged index props like touchdown scorers and the Most Valuable Player award winner.

Let’s handicap five of the most prominent avenues and land on a recommended bet with value to give rooting interest in the Big Game, and beyond.

Point spread: Seahawks -4.5

Seattle was historically dominant all season, finishing with the NFL’s best point differential of the last two years (+193) and slotting as the seventh-best team since 1978 (as far back as reliable play-by-play data has been compiled) by the DVOA ratings.

It’s just kind of flown under the radar because of their relative lack of star power and prior success. That’s made the Seahawks a good bet all season, and should once again to cap the year.

The only area the Patriots were historic in was schedule strength. They had the third-easiest schedule since 1978 by DVOA, and the good luck continued in the playoffs with wins against the injury-ravaged Broncos, Texans and Chargers.

That doesn’t mean they can’t pull the upset. New England has a second-year quarterback who looks poised to be among the best passers in the league for the next decade, Drake Maye, and a defense that’s continually improved.

But it’s at more of a disadvantage on paper than this number indicates. Seattle should be approaching a 6-point favorite.

Total: Under 46 points

Both teams have above-average offenses but play at a below-average pace. They also both rank in the NFL’s top five in rush-play percentage.

Put those factors together, and this number shouldn’t be above the usual NFL average total of over/under 45 points. Both teams have been profitable to the over this season, but Super Bowls historically play—or at least start—slower offensively, potentially because of nerves, more risk-averse game plans or the two-week layoff before the game.

Teams playing for the championship have transcended the trend in recent years—three straight Super Bowls have flown over—largely by getting into a rhythm and attacking more later in the game. But that might not ever happen here, given the style Seattle and New England prefer to play.

First touchdown: New England Patriots tight end Hunter Henry at 15-to-1

The Seahawks rank below average defensively against only one position by DVOA: tight end.

That makes the veteran Henry a player to target positively in the betting market, and his biggest ability might be scoring touchdowns. Henry led the Patriots with seven receiving touchdowns this season and, more importantly, was the focal point of the passing game in the red zone.

Henry received 21 targets inside the 20-yard line, nine more than any of his teammates. He’s had a relatively quiet postseason run with only one touchdown, but that might just be elevating his odds to a point where they’re available to buy low.

Anytime touchdown: Seattle Seahawks tight end Elijah Arroyo at 11-to-1

The only reason the rookie second-round pick out of Miami sits this high is because he’s missed the last six games with injury.

But he’s set to be healthy for the Super Bowl, and the Seahawks have used multiple tight-end sets and rotated players at the spot opposite of AJ Barner all season. Arroyo is no lock to score or even contribute, but Seattle was high on him before his knee injury, and the likelihood of him getting opportunities is stronger than the betting market implies.

Put a little bit on him to score the first touchdown (at 110-to-1) but the price on a touchdown at any point is attractive enough on its own.

Most Valuable Player: Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxson Smith-Njigba at 6-to-1

Journeyman Seattle quarterback Sam Darnold is the rightful favorite here—ranging anywhere from +110 (i.e. risking $100 to win $110) to +135—but media members still have a tough time accepting how well he’s played in his eighth professional season.

Media members, importantly, vote on this award. They’re more likely to give credit to Smith-Njigba, the NFL’s leading receiver this year if he has a game like the betting market seems to expect him to put together.

Smith-Njigba’s over/under receiving yardage total is 94.5 with his over/under receptions at 7.5. If the third-year player out of Ohio State has eight catches for 100 yards and a touchdown, voters will be rushing to give him the award.

It should be similar to Super Bowl 57 in 2022 when Smith-Njigba’s current Seattle teammate, Cooper Kupp, won Super Bowl MVP on the Rams after grabbing eight catches for 92 yards and a touchdown.

If the Patriots win, Maye has much more of the equity on his team. Those who like the Patriots should consider betting Maye to win the MVP at +250 instead of the team’s moneyline to win outright at +190.

But we’re rolling with the Seahawks.

Super Bowl 61 winner: Los Angeles Chargers at 16-to-1, Detroit Lions at 16-to-1

It’s never too early to start building a portfolio for next season, and these two teams appear to be mid-priced value plays.

The Chargers made the playoffs this year despite being severely weakened by injuries all season, including to some of their best players like tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt.

Their attack should improve drastically next season with former Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel coming in as arguably the most coveted offensive coordinator in the league.

The Lions also interviewed McDaniel for the same position but instead settled on Drew Petzing. He’s more of an unknown but has an embarrassment of riches to work with in Detroit like wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and running back Jahmyr Gibbs.

Detroit was the best team to ever miss the playoffs per DVOA and should have better luck next season. Four sports books in town have opened these odds, but it might be smartest to wait until after Super Bowl 60’s conclusion when they’re available everywhere to ensure getting the best price.

But here’s to an early call of the Chargers and Lions facing off for the Lombardi Trophy on Valentine’s Day 2027 at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles.

This story appeared in Las Vegas Weekly.