Weekend wagers: Bets on the Open Championship, UFC, MLB and more

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, July 16, 2022 | 2 a.m.

Rory McIlroy is in prime position to compete for his fifth major title this weekend at the Open Championship, sitting three strokes back of leader Cameron Smith through two rounds.

I’m sick the Weekend Wagers column doesn’t have a piece of him.

“The plan here was to pick off the lone 12-to-1 left on Rory McIlroy in town for the final major of the year, but the price dropped all the way to +750,” I wrote three weeks ago.

Instead, I fired on Jon Rahm at 15-to-1, a move that’s putting the streak of cashing three straight major winners in this space in serious jeopardy. Rahm is nine strokes back, and 100-to-1 to win entering Saturday’s round.

McIlroy is 4-to-1, so I could just fire on him now out of a fear of missing out, but that price looks a little too short. The top of the leaderboard is packed with world-class players including but not limited to Dustin Johnson, Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay and Matthew Fitzpatrick.

I’d want a little better than 4-to-1 to back McIlroy because of the situation. So I’ll move on and bet the round-by-round matchup markets instead, and be happy the outright run lasted as long as it did.

There’s still plenty to be happy about, as Weekend Wagers banked another profitable edition last weekend with a 5-3 record for a $542 win.

Read on for this weekend’s plays. Records are attached for each individual sport since the column restarted for 2022 post-football season with a cumulative tally at the bottom of the page. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas at publication time.

Golf (5-5-2, $6,042.50): Shane Lowry -105 head-to-head vs. Jordan Spieth in third round of The Open Championship (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

$210 to win $200

I didn't understand all the hype Spieth had coming into The Open Championship. I understand it even less after he posted two good, though not great, rounds to start the tournament. Lowry and Spieth both sit at 4-under par, but The Old Course at St. Andrew's seems to fit better with the former's game than the latter's at the moment. Lowry is gaining strokes off the tee to the field, while Spieth is losing in them in the same category. Yes, Spieth just missed a playoff when the Open was held here in 2015 but he was in much better form back then. That one instance of success seems to be throwing off his prices in the market. Nine strokes back, it's unlikely either of these two golfers can contend for the victory on Sunday. But, if one of them does, it's more likely to be Lowry.

NBA (3-6, -$570): Sacramento Kings +1.5 vs. Houston Rockets at NBA Summer League (Caesars/William Hill)

$55 to win $50

Trying to handicap the penultimate day of the NBA Summer League — the Knicks and Blazers meet for the championship Sunday while everyone else gets an additional game — is a fool's errand. But I'm trying to maintain the column's original "five sports" setup whenever possible, and with a full slate of games on tap for the Thomas & Mack Center and Cox Pavilion tomorrow, it is technically possible. It's just hard with Summer League because so many teams are sitting their prized rookies and second-year players for the final game. This is a stab at hoping Houston does the same. Even if the Rockets don't, the Kings should have enough to challenge them. Although they're 2-2, the defending Summer League champion Kings have gone all-out in every game. Their two losses came by a total of eight points to Paolo Banchero's Orlando Magic and Chet Holmgren's Oklahoma City Thunder. The Kings don't have the same level of star power — though Keegan Murray has played in every game — but they have a deep roster that's consistently played hard.

MLB (12-3, $1,643): Pittsburgh Pirates +115 at Colorado Rockies (Wynn)

$200 to win $230

I’m looking for opportunities to fade Rockies pitcher Jose Urena, who’s been among the worst starters in the league this season. Pirates starter Mitch Keller isn’t nearly as bad. Heck, the entire Pirates’ team isn’t as bad as they’re priced out to be. Yes, they do have the worst run differential in the majors, but the betting market has accounted too much for that. Pittsburgh is actually a slightly profitable bet on the season, as a gambler would be up $179 if he or she wagered $100 on the Pirates every game according to covers.com. The bottom line is, the Pirates have mostly been able to hold their own and should continue to do so against the Rockies at Coors Field.  

MLB (12-3, $1,643): San Francisco Giants -140 vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Wynn)

$280 to win $200

The Giants seem to keep losing games started by Alex Cobb, and it doesn’t make any sense. Chalk it up to randomness because the 34-year-old Cobb is having a resurgence and throwing remarkably well this season. Today is where it could start to flip, as Cobb gives the Giants a decided edge over Brewers starter Eric Lauer. The Giants are a liability defensively, but Cobb is striking out batters at a high rate and the Brewers offense is more around league average. Look for this spread to climb and close on other side of -150.

UFC (10-15, -$1,553): Dustin Stoltzfus +120 vs. Dwight Grant at UFC on ABC 3 (SuperBook)

$200 to win $240

Both today’s UFC plays are on the preliminary card, giving us the chance to hit early and cash out. The second fight of the night is this middleweight bout that presents a great buy-low opportunity. Stoltzfus is a promising fighter who reached the UFC via Dana White’s Contender Series but has since lost three straight in the octagon. Consider the competition, though. He faced a relatively brutal opening stretch of Kyle Daukaus, Rodolfo Vieira and Gerald Meerschaert, especially when considering matchups. All three of them had the submission grappling chops to attack Stoltzfus where he was weakest. Grant does not. Stoltzfus should be able to wrestle freer without the fear of getting stopped, and may even catch the 37-year-old Grant with strikes. Grant was knocked out in his last fight, and it’s not out of the question here. Stoltzfus should be the small favorite, not the underdog.

UFC (10-15, -$1,553): Dustin Jacoby vs. Da Un Jung over 2.5 rounds -120 at UFC on ABC 3 (South Point)

$240 to win $200

Unlike most non-numbered events over the last couple years, this weekend’s card in Long Island, N.Y. will feature the UFC’s full-sized cage. That means stoppages should be fewer with more room for fighters to avoid each other in the bigger octagon. I’m targeting overs with the market not appearing to fully adjust, and this is probably the best one. I’ve flip-flopped multiple times on who I’m picking to win this fight, but either way, it should be close and come down to a tight decision. Jacoby should win the striking exchanges, but Un Jung is likely to take him down and control on the mat. Neither Un Jong nor Jacoby have been finished in seven years, and they likely won't end those streaks of durability here.

NASCAR (8-7, $1,030): Chase Elliott +120 head-to-head vs. Denny Hamlin in Ambetter 301 (SuperBook)

$300 to win $360

Elliott shouldn’t be an underdog to anyone in this weekend’s Cup race at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Or, if that’s too strong, he at least shouldn’t be this big of an underdog to anyone. No driver is on better current form than Elliott, who’s won two out of the last three races and finished second in the third, which he also dominated. Those were much different courses than the short, flat one where NASCAR will contest this weekend’s race but it’s arguably been Elliott’s best setup this year. One sports book in town — Golden Nugget — still has Elliott at 12-to-1 to win outright this weekend. That’s a smart bet as well, but for the purposes of the column, I’ll skip on the win bet this week to take a bigger piece against a driver in Hamlin whom I’m not quite as high on at New Hampshire.

Weekend wagers year to date: 53-55-2, $6,231.50

Weekend betting column all-time: 395-385-4, $12,207.93

Previous pending wagers: Philadelphia Union 16-to-1 to win MLS Cup ($125 to win $2,000); Seattle Mariners +650 to win AL West ($100 to win $650); Jon Rahm at 15-to-1 to win the Open Championship ($150 to win $2,250); Vegas Golden Knights at 15-to-1 to win the 2023 Stanley Cup ($200 to win $3,000)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or