Analysis: Could Holm morph into once-expected role as Rousey rival?

By Case Keefer (contact)

Wednesday, Nov. 11, 2015 | 2 a.m.

For a brief time early last year, UFC President Dana White received more questions about one fighter not on his roster than anyone signed to the world’s largest mixed martial arts promotion.

That fighter was Holly Holm, a then 32-year-old known more for her championship boxing past than her nascent transition into mixed martial arts. Frustration boiled over for White during protracted contract negotiations with Holm, whom fans forecasted as the most stylistically challenging opponent for women’s bantamweight champion Ronda Rousey.

“We’re not interested anymore,” White snarled on the “UFC Tonight” television show. “Not interested whatsoever.”

It’s an ironic declaration looking back now that Holm is set to headline the biggest live event in UFC history. Holm (9-0 MMA, 2-0 UFC) gets the next crack at Rousey (12-0 MMA, 6-0 UFC) Saturday night in the main event of UFC 193, which airs on pay-per-view beginning at 7 p.m. from Etihad Stadium in Melbourne, Australia.

The fight is already a guaranteed financial victory with the UFC expecting to pack in 70,000 fans and Rousey continuing her unabated climb up the pop-culture ranks.

For it to go down as a competitive success, however, Holm must show some of the potential that had everyone clamoring for her to come to the UFC in the first place. Based solely on Holm’s first two fights in the octagon, the pairing looks like as much of a squash match as Rousey’s 34-second annihilation of Bethe Correia in August.

“There’s a reason why I’m in this fight,” Holm said on a recent conference call. “It’s because I have the capability and ability to win.”

There’s just no evidence that Holm can win, not since she’s switched to fight in the cage at least. It would be foolish to question her boxing credentials.

Holm won virtually every major title during her time in between the ropes and was The Ring magazine — which currently has Rousey as its controversial cover choice — Female Fighter of the Year in 2005 and 2006. She hasn’t reached the same level in her new sport.

Some thought Holm deserved to lose a decision in her UFC debut against middling Raquel Pennington on the undercard of Rousey’s record-setting victory over Cat Zingano in February. Instead, the judges awarded Holm a split decision.

Holm’s next fight was more convincing, but still only a unanimous-decision win against an overmatched opponent in Marion Reneau at UFC Fight Night 71.

When Holm unexpectedly leapt over Miesha Tate for a shot at Rousey after the win, the response wasn’t what the UFC expected. It was more “too soon” than “about time”, something even Holm noticed especially after the matchup was pushed up to this weekend after initially being scheduled for January in Las Vegas.

“If I stand and listen to all the negative things that people are saying, then it would take its toll on me but I’m excited to have this opportunity and I want to make the most of it,” Holm said. “I don’t want to think, ‘Oh my Gosh, it’s too soon,’ because then mentally, I wouldn’t ready for it. As soon as they called, I was just like, ‘Hey, let’s do it.’”

Holm can speak persuasively on reasons why she’s the answer for Rousey. She’s the champion’s first challenger who trains out of Jackson-Winkeljohn in Albuquerque, N.M., which is widely regarded as the top camp in the sport.

Rousey’s tendency to immediately rush at her opponents and leave herself open plays right into Holm’s strength for counter-punching.

Holm is also experienced in entering a bout as the prohibitive underdog. In 2011, Holm lost her first boxing match in seven years when Anne Sophie Mathis knocked her out in the seventh round.

The defeat was so vicious that some advised Holm against taking a rematch. The two battled again six months later anyway, and Holm adjusted her strategy to win a unanimous-decision victory.

But Holm was only a 2-to-1 underdog versus Mathis. She’s as high as 13-to-1 against Rousey and quite possibly going to surpass Correia as the highest-priced underdog in UFC history.

A fight that once promised Rousey’s toughest test might just be another mismatch.

“I know that I’m the underdog and all this stuff but there are big upsets in sports for a reason, and it’s that somebody else came in believing in themselves and they’re going to do it,” Holm said. “And that’s my plan.”

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.