Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 11 winners against the spread

The Minnesota Vikings’ 33-30 overtime victory at the Buffalo Bills last week is a game that will be remembered for years to come in NFL circles because of all of its late craziness.

Among sports bettors, there’s going to be another element to its memory — all of the wild line swings it spurred all week. With the status of Bills quarterback Josh Allen uncertain after he hurt his elbow in Week 9, the odds perhaps shifted more on Week 10’s Vikings at Bills showdown than they will for any other game all season.

Buffalo opened as high as a 9-point favorite before news of Allen’s injury spread and got as low as -3 when it looked like he wouldn’t be playing with brief stops on virtually every other number in between. When it became clear Allen would play through the injury, the price shot back up and settled on Bills -6.5.

The spread didn’t ultimately end up mattering with the Vikings winning outright, but it sure looked like it might late. With less than a minute, the Bills led 30-27, covering the low point of the movement but not the closing spread, before a fumble recovered for a touchdown at the goal line that ultimately extended the game.

For many years, up to as recently as two seasons ago, sports books wouldn’t post lines on games with quarterback injuries until the last minute. It’s changed with the nationwide expansion of sports betting, and it’s all for the better.

In the case of Vikings at Bills, it added to what looks like the Game of the Year’s legend.

Read on for picks on every Week 11 game. Picks are separated into three confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. The overall record now stands at 78-67-4 after going 8-6 overall last week.

Plays (21-19-4)

Chicago Bears +3.5 at Atlanta Falcons The Bears are a hair above the Falcons by measures like expected points added per play and net yards per play so the movement towards the home team is a bit curious. With homefield advantage minimized in recent years — down to about 2 points — Atlanta should be laying less than, not more than, the key number of 3.

Los Angeles Chargers +6 vs. Kansas City Chiefs The only difference in the Chiefs’ 27-24 victory in the first meeting between these two teams this season was a fortunate 99-yard interception returned for a touchdown by cornerback Jaylen Watson. These teams are much closer at full strength — Kansas City was only a 4-point favorite at home in the aforementioned game — and it looks like the Chargers will be as close to full strength as they’ve been all season.

Pittsburgh Steelers +4 vs. Cincinnati Bengals With edge rusher T.J. Watt having returned last week and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick expected to join this week, the Steelers’ defense should be back to among the best in the league. Expect an ultra-low scoring game where this many points are too valuable to pass up.

Arizona Cardinals +8 vs. San Francisco 49ers in Mexico City This line is fair if the Cardinals are forced to start backup quarterback Colt McCoy, who’s capable enough, for the second straight week. If Kyler Murray happens to return, then it turns into a steal.

Detroit Lions +3 at New York Giants Take away the two weeks where the Lions were ravished by injuries — where they lost a combined 53-6 to the Cowboys and Patriots — and they’re 3-4 straight-up, 5-2 against the spread. They’re not nearly as poor as they’ve been the past several seasons, though they’ve continued to be priced like it.

Leans (25-32)

New York Jets +3.5 at New England Patriots This line is based on history and reputation more than anything else — in fairness, a deference Patriots coach Bill Belichick may deserve — as there’s nothing that’s happened this year to justify this large of a gap. The Patriots may have beaten the Jets 22-17 as 3-point favorites two games ago but the whole result is different if a pick-six by the latter isn’t overturned by a roughing the passer call.

Tennessee Titans +3.5 at Green Bay Packers Coaching edges typically count for more on a short week going into Thursday Night Football, and it’s safe to say at this point that Tennessee has a coaching edge over the majority of the league with Mike Vrabel. Green Bay should be favored, but +3.5 is a buy point and South Point became the first sports book globally to climb that high.

Minnesota Vikings +1.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys Minnesota receiver Justin Jefferson creates matchup problems for a lot of teams, but that should be especially true against Dallas which has been mediocre covering receivers on shorter routes. The Cowboys’ defense has showed cracks overall the last couple weeks, and Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell has proven he’s shrewd enough to know how to attack such weaknesses effectively.

Washington Commanders -3 at Houston Texans It’s tempting to sell high on Washington off its 32-21 upset win at Philadelphia as 11-point favorites considering the victory was largely due to recovering four of the game’s five fumbles. The Commanders aren’t as dangerous as they’re now being considered, but there’s got to be better spots to act on that belief than against the Texans’ dreadful defense.

Buffalo Bills -8 vs. Cleveland Browns My line on this game is Buffalo -11, which would normally make the Bills an easy play. But that’s before considering the snowstorm expected to hit this weekend, which could drastically change things and make points much harder to find.

Guesses (32-16)

Baltimore Ravens -12 vs. Carolina Panthers Now getting healthier, and having won three straight including covering the last two, Baltimore is the sneaky Super Bowl contender no one is talking about. Bet on the Ravens when possible until further notice.

Indianapolis Colts +6.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles The number is fair but it’s difficult to overstate how much better the Colts looked under interim coach Jeff Saturday with quarterback Matt Ryan back under center. Yes, it was just the pitiful Raiders but the Colts outgained them by 2.2 yards per play and were therefore better than the 25-20 final score made it look.

New Orleans Saints -4 vs. Los Angeles Rams The Rams stayed remarkably healthy during last year’s Super Bowl run and are experiencing the reverse of that fate this year. With reigning Offensive Player of the Year and Super Bowl MVP Cooper Kupp added to their wide-ranging list of players either hurt or on injured reserve, the Rams are unbettable for now.

Denver Broncos -2.5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders Both teams are a mess but at least the Broncos can fall back on the NFL’s second-best defense by EPA per play. Las Vegas’ defense, on the other hand, has completely fallen apart and can’t be trusted to slow any offense — even one as flawed as Denver’s.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or