College football by the odds: Vegas preview and picks of every Week 12 game

By Case Keefer (contact)

Tuesday, Nov. 15, 2022 | 2 a.m.

An odds-on favorite has emerged to win every college football conference except for one — the Pac-12.

Nine out of 10 Football Bowl Subdivision leagues featured one team at -120 (i.e. risking $120 to win $100) or lower in future odds to win the conference when Circa Sports updated the markets at the start of the week. The current Pac-12 favorite, on the other hand, is only +170 (i.e. risking $100 to win $170) — the USC Trojans.

USC has the clearest path to the Pac-12 Championship Game as all it needs to do is win at the Rose Bowl against UCLA this week as 2.5-point favorites. It’s one of two virtual elimination games taking place in the West Coast’s power conference.

Oregon also hosts Utah as a 3-point favorite hoping to bounce back from 37-34 loss to Washington as 12.5-point favorites last week. That defeat helped create this whole mess. The Ducks were the conference favorite going into the game against the Huskies, but now likely need to knock off both Utah and rival Oregon State next week to reach the title game.

That’s a tall task, as Circa’s odds help illustrate. Oregon has dropped to the third choice to win the Pac-12 at +240 with Utah at +225 despite the former being favored over the latter by 3 points in Saturday’s co-headliner to the USC at UCLA tilt.

UCLA is 14-to-1 to win the Pac-12 after getting upset 34-28 by Arizona as 20-point favorites last week. UCLA needs to beat USC and root for Oregon to win out to secure its place.

A fifth team is technically still alive in Washington at 60-to-1, but the Huskies would need ultimate chaos to reach the championship game. USC is the only team of the bunch with a path to the College Football Playoff, and its currently 6-to-1 to reach the four-team field at Caesars/William Hill.

That’s a whole lot of numbers to digest, and we’ve got a whole lot more with 63 games on the board to bet in the penultimate college football slate of the year.

Read below for picks on every Week 12 game. Lines are the best available on the chosen side at publication time in Nevada. Picks are labeled with three separate confidence categories. The record on the year stands at 324-264-9 (55-71-1 on plays, 130-84-7 on leans and 139-109-1 on guesses).

Big Games

Illinois +18 at Michigan, over/under: 43. Before Illinois lost its last two games — each by a touchdown — this line would have been closer to two touchdowns. That makes this too big of an adjustment, especially with a slow pace forecasted that should lead to a low-scoring game. Play: Illinois +18.

TCU -3 at Baylor, over/under: 58. Every week it’s been fair to assume a TCU letdown, and every week, it’s failed to happen. Baylor should put forth a better effort in bouncing back from a 31-3 loss to Kansas State as 3-point favorites last week but it’s outmanned from a talent perspective. Guess: TCU -3.

Kansas State -7.5 at West Virginia, over/under: 54. This number looks extremely low and perhaps an overreaction to West Virginia’s somewhat fluky 23-20 upset victory over Oklahoma last week. Kansas State’s offense has more dimensions with quarterback Will Howard, who may earn the starting nod over Adrian Martinez this week.  Play: Kansas State -7.5.

Georgia -22.5 at Kentucky, over/under: 49.5. Kentucky should play better than it did in a 24-21 loss to Vanderbilt as 17-point favorites a week ago, but it might not matter at Georgia’s dominance has been difficult to quantify. The Bulldogs have outgained five straight opponents by 2 yards per play or more. Guess: Georgia -22.5.

Tennessee -22 at South Carolina, over/under: 65.5. The Gamecocks were dreadful in last week’s 38-6 loss to Florida as 9-point underdogs, but they’ve been up and down all year. The Volunteers may try to pour on points late for the second straight week, but this line shouldn’t be above three touchdowns. Guess: South Carolina +22.

USC -2.5 at UCLA, over/under: 75.5. The loss of running back Travis Dye is getting the most attention but he’s just the latest casualty in a long list of injuries for the Trojans. This number looks exactly right, but if forced, it’s hard to go wrong with the healthier team. Guess: UCLA +2.5.

Utah +3 at Oregon, over/under: 61.5. Utah may look on pair with Oregon on the surface by effieicncy metrics, but the Ducks are perhaps the most explosive team in the country offensively. The running ability of quarterback Bo Nix and running back Bucky Irving specifically should give them an edge and help prevent a second straight loss at Autzen Stadium. Lean: Oregon -3.

Big Plays

Virginia Tech +9 at Liberty, over/under: 46. Liberty had no business losing 36-33 to Connecticut last week as 13.5-point favorites if it wasn’t for a long fumble recovery touchdown and a couple stalled drives. Virginia Tech has lost seven straight and struggled to move the ball against defenses much worse than Liberty’s. Play: Liberty -9.  

Houston +6 at East Carolina, over/under: 67.5. Houston is mistake-prone and frustrating to watch but a level above East Carolina from a pure talent perspective. This should be a shootout, and Cougars quarterback Clayton Tune is well-equipped to survive a shootout.  Play: Houston +6.

Western Kentucky +6.5 at Auburn, over/under: 53. Auburn has played spirited under interim coach Cadillac Williams, but that’s never guaranteed to last. And he’s going to need more than inspiration for his mediocre secondary going up against Western Kentucky’s spastic passing attack led by quarterback Austin Reed. Play: Western Kentucky +6.5.

Iowa +2.5 at Minnesota, over/under: 32.5. Tanner Morgan should return from injury for the Gophers, and Minnesota’s offensive metrics are in a different class from Iowa’s. The Hawkeyes defeated Wisconsin last week despite barely cracking 2 yards per play, which is not a sustainable method for success. Play: Minnesota -2.5.

Georgia Tech +21 at North Carolina, over/under: 62.5. This is a tough spot for the Tar Heels, which are coming off clinching the Coastal Division in last week’s win at Wake  Forest. They still have one of the worst defenses in the nation — ranking No. 127 by expected points added per play — that can keep any and every opponent in the game.Play: Georgia Tech +21.

Other Games

Play: Miami (Ohio) +2 at Northern Illinois

Play: Wyoming +14 vs. Boise State

Lean: NC State +4 at Louisville

Lean: UAB +15 at LSU

Lean: Louisiana Tech -3 at Charlotte

Lean: Arkansas +3 vs. Ole Miss

Lean: Georgia State +9.5 at James Madison

Lean: Michigan State -10.5 vs. Indiana

Lean: UTSA -12.5 at Rice

Lean: Ball State +4 vs. Ohio

Lean: Tulane -3 vs. SMU

Lean: Miami +19.5 at Clemson

Lean: Nebraska +13.5 vs. Wisconsin

Lean: UTEP -13.5 vs. Florida International

Lean: Buffalo -15.5 vs. Akron

Lean: Iowa State -3 vs. Texas Tech

Lean: Duke +7.5 at Pittsburgh

Lean: San Jose State -3 at Utah State

Lean: New Mexico +14.5 at San Diego State

Lean: Arkansas State +6 at Texas State

Lean: Syracuse +10 at Wake Forest

Lean: Air Force -21.5 vs. Colorado State

Lean: Hawaii +11.5 vs. UNLV

Lean: Maryland +28 vs. Ohio State

Guess: Arizona +4.5 vs. Washington State

Guess: UCF -16.5 vs Navy

Guess: Cincinnati -17 at Temple

Guess: Southern Miss +8 vs. South Alabama

Guess: Troy -15 vs. UL-Monroe

Guess: Toledo -15.5 vs. Bowling Green

Guess: Kent State -7.5 vs. Eastern Michigan

Guess: Kansas +9.5 vs. Texas

Guess: Stanford +4.5 at California

Guess: Penn State -18.5 at Rutgers

Guess: Georgia Southern +5 vs. Marshall

Guess: Northwestern +20.5 at Purdue

Guess: Western Michigan +12 at Central Michigan

Guess: Connecticut +10 at Army

Guess: Vanderbilt +14.5 vs. Florida

Guess: Old Dominion +16 at Appalachian State

Guess: Oregon State -7.5 at Arizona State

Guess: Oklahoma State +7.5 at Oklahoma

Guess: UNR +22.5 vs. Fresno State

Guess: Louisiana +24 at Florida State

Guess: Texas A&M -33.5 vs. Massachusetts

Guess: Virginia -1 vs. Coastal Carolina

Guess: Middle Tennessee State +6.5 vs. Florida Atlantic

Guess: Tulsa -12.5 vs. South Florida

Guess: Missouri -28 vs. New Mexico State

Guess: Notre Dame -21 vs. Boston College

Guess: Colorado +31 at Washington

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or