Week 2 NFL game of the week and picks for the Sun’s handicapping contest

By Case Keefer (contact)

Sunday, Sept. 20, 2015 | 2 a.m.

The point spread vanished, leaving the live betting board naked.

With five minutes left in last year’s NFC Championship Game, there was no way for gamblers in Las Vegas to bet on Seattle becoming the first NFC team in 16 years to advance to back-to-back Super Bowls. Sports books, at least a vast majority, ceased offering in-running wagering on the first of two NFL semifinals when safety Morgan Burnett landed Green Bay’s fourth interception of the day off of Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson.

The odds were too high, with Green Bay sporting a 19-7 lead and sitting and a 99 percent win probability. What happened next was a collapse the football world would still fixate on if it weren’t for the Seahawks’ more infamous ruin two weeks later in Super Bowl 49.

Seattle forced a three-and-out, scored before the two-minute warning and recovered an onside kick to make the score 19-14. The line was back; the game was a pick’em.

Seattle’s odds to win spiked down to minus-300 (risking $3 to win $1) a couple minutes later when Marshawn Lynch rumbled 24 yards for a touchdown to give his team its first lead of the game. It would have been a good bet, as the Seahawks went on to win 28-22 in overtime.

Local sports books were the other big winners on that day eight months ago. Bookmakers wanted Seattle to win but not cover the 8-point spread to maximize their hold by not having to pay out plus-250 (risking $1 to win $2.50) moneyline wagers on Green Bay.

Casinos need the Seahawks to come through against the Packers again on Sunday Night Football this week. The majority of bettors sense revenge, pushing the point spread up an extra half-point from where it opened to Green Bay minus-3.5.

The Las Vegas Sun sportswriters came to no majority on week 2’s betting game of the week. The three competitors in the annual NFL handicapping contest are required to make a pick on the game of the week plus five more selections off of the South Point betting board at the bottom of the page.

Because of its primetime billing, Seattle at Green Bay sets up as the likely biggest decision for sports books on Sunday. The house should feel comfortable siding with Seattle by now.

With the obvious exception of last year’s Super Bowl, the Seahawks have been valuable to sports books since their emergence in 2012. The moderate sting of last year’s Super Bowl was outweighed by the year before, when the state raked a record amount of money on the Seattle’s 43-8 blowout of Denver as a 2-point underdog.

The Seahawks are 6-1 against the spread as an underdog in the last four seasons. As soon as bettors began doubting Seattle last season after a 6-4 start to drop it to 12-to-1 in the future odds, it finished the regular season 6-0 straight-up and 5-0-1 against the spread.

The Seahawks seem to play their best when the public sentiment is against them. The cynics may have arrived early this season.

Seattle is down to a 15-to-2 fourth choice to win the Super Bowl through one week at William Hill sports books — Green Bay top the futures at 6-to-1 — after opening as the favorite. On the surface, the Seahawks did nothing overly-disturbing in a 34-31 road loss to the Rams as a 3.5-point favorite in week 1.

Neither the Rams nor the Seahawks ever led by double-digits and posted nearly identical yardage in a game that either team could have won in overtime. The betting market’s hesitation with Seattle may more strongly involve the eye test.

Through one week, the offseason’s mega Max Unger-for-Jimmy Graham trade didn’t look like the bonanza Seattle fans expected. Although Graham finished with six catches for 51 yards and a touchdown, the Seahawks looked unsure of how to best utilize him for parts of the game.

During an inordinate amount of snaps, they wasted one of the NFL’s best pass-catching weapons as a blocker. Seattle needed the help up front, where the departure of Unger at center apparently expedited the transition of its offensive line from mediocre to terrible.

The Rams recorded six sacks and penetrated practically every play. The Seahawks’ “Legion of Boom” secondary also looked more fragile than feared with strong safety Kam Chancellor extending his holdout into the season.

Rams quarterback Nick Foles, second in the NFL with 11 yards per pass attempt after facing the Seahawks, targeted Chancellor replacement Dion Bailey repeatedly including on the overtime-forcing touchdown to Lance Kendricks.

Green Bay had no steel-buttress defense in week 1 either. The Packers gave up 402 yards to the Bears, but managed to slip out a 1-point cover that pummeled the sports books in a 31-23 victory.

The torrent of Green Bay action showed quarterback Aaron Rodgers is as popular of a bet as ever despite early-season adversity. Rodgers lost his top receiver, Jordy Nelson, to an ACL tear in the preseason and No. 2 target, Randall Cobb, isn’t quite 100 percent off of shoulder injury.

Rodgers has accomplished almost everything throughout an 11-year career where he’s gone 78-39 straight-up and 69-43-3 against the spread, but he’s never beaten Seattle under its current regime. The two failed attempts other than last season’s NFC Championship Game were just as memorable, with the 36-16 bludgeoning on opening night in 2014 and the 14-12 “Fail Mary” in 2012.

Casinos benefited off of all three games. It’s up to Seattle to extend the streak tonight.

Find full picks from the Sun’s handicapping contest below. Picks are listed in order of sports books’ rotation numbers.

Case Keefer (2012 & 2014 champion, 2013 co-champion)

2015 Record: 4-2

Browns plus-1.5 vs. Titans

Bengals minus-3 vs. Chargers

Falcons plus-2.5 at Giants

Eagles minus-5 vs. Cowboys

Seahawks plus-3.5 at Packers

Jets plus-7 at Colts

Ray Brewer (2013 co-champion)

2015 Record: 3-3

Texans at Panthers under 40

Steelers minus-6 vs. 49ers

Patriots minus-1 at Bills

Chargers plus-3 at Bengals

Redskins plus-3 vs. Rams

Seahawks at Packers over 49

Taylor Bern

2015 Record: 2-4

Steelers minus-6 vs. 49ers

Redskins plus-3 vs. Rams

Bears plus-2 vs. Cardinals

Giants minus-2.5 vs. Falcons

Cowboys plus-5 at Eagles

Packers minus-3.5 vs. Seahawks

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.