College football by the odds: Vegas preview and picks of every Week 1 game

By Case Keefer (contact)

Tuesday, Aug. 30, 2022 | 2 a.m.

Nothing could have provided a better “welcome back to college football” moment than the fate of the pair of totals I placed in Talking Points last week.

Under 44.5 points cashed by a half point in Illinois’s 38-6 victory against Wyoming Saturday afternoon. Over 56.5 points lost by a half point in Florida Atlantic’s 43-13 victory against Charlotte Saturday evening.

Those are the types of margins we’re dealing with in football betting. It’s best to go ahead and embrace them.

Last week’s sides performed in a mediocre fashion for the column too. I went 3-4 picking every Football Bowl Subdivision game (0-1 on plays, 3-1 on leans, 0-2 on guesses) but it was all just a warm-up for Week 1 anyway.

Five straight days of college football are on tap starting Thursday, and I’ll highlight games from every single one of them in this week’s write-up section. A full year of narrow wins, excruciating losses and everything in between awaits.

Nothing that happened in Week 0 can dampen enthusiasm for what’s ahead.

Read below for picks on every Week 1 game. Lines are the best available on the chosen side at publication time in Las Vegas. Picks are labeled with three separate confidence categories.

Big Games

West Virginia +8 at Pittsburgh, over/under: 51. Both reunited rivals overhauled their offenses over the offseason, but it was only necessary for the Mountaineers. The Panthers should see a dip going from quarterback Kenny Pickett and offensive coordinator Mark Whipple to Kedon Slovis and Frank Cignetti, respectively, while the Mountaineers may be in for an upgrade with new coordinator Graham Harrell and quarterback J.T. Daniels. Guess: West Virginia +7.5.

Cincinnati +6.5 at Arkansas, over/under: 52.5. There’s understandably a lot of focus on all that Cincinnati lost coming off a College Football Playoff berth, but probably not enough on the similar situation Arkansas finds itself in. The Razorbacks’ offense will need to retool without wide receiver Treylon Burks, who was quietly among the most impactful skill players in the nation last year. Play: Cincinnati +6.5.

Oregon +17 vs. Georgia in Atlanta, over/under 53. Georgia’s defense may take a while to coalesce, but its offense should be even better than it was a year ago with a fully healthy receiving corps. Oregon will need an adjustment period on both sides of the ball under new coach Dan Lanning. This game is being priced like it’s at a neutral site, but Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium is far from a true neutral site. Play: Georgia -17.

Utah -3 at Florida, over/under: 51. It’s too bad these two teams are playing each other to open the season because I’d prefer to bet against them both. Utah is the slightly better team on paper, but Florida’s homefield advantage is no small edge. That should leave this game at a pick’em — exactly where it opened before the unstoppable hype train of Utah continued unimpeded into the betting market. Lean: Florida +3.

Notre Dame +17 at Ohio State, over/under: 58.5. Notre Dame had among the most injury-plagued training camp in the country. A slew of banged-up starters is a tough question mark to add to a team playing in its first game under a first time in head coach in Marcus Freeman against the most explosive offense, if not team, in the country. Lean: Ohio State -17.

Florida State +3 vs. LSU in New Orleans, over/under: 51.5. Say what you want about new LSU coach Brian Kelly but he’s consistently gotten the most out of his teams, and this year’s Tigers are among his more talented with the success he had in the transfer portal. Florida State’s Mike Norvell hasn’t yet proven worthy of receiving the same praise. This number seems sure to rise with perhaps the transfers not being priced in appropriately enough in LSU’s favor. Play: LSU -3.

Clemson -21 at Georgia Tech, over/under: 48.5. Clemson is a bet-on team early in the season, but just as importantly, Georgia Tech is a bet-against. The Yellow Jackets are extremely young and unheralded on defense, giving the Tigers a soft landing spot to try to revive last year’s dormant offense. Play: Clemson -21.

Big Plays

Western Michigan +21.5 at Michigan State, over/under: 54.5. The Broncos have one of the bottom 10 rates of returning production in the nation and, even worse, their overall talent index has fallen off for the first time in a half-decade. The Spartans have stronger continuity on both sides of the ball and should overwhelm the in-state foe. Play: Michigan State -21.5.

Illinois +3 at Indiana, over/under: 46.5. The Illini should be able to bully the Hoosiers in the trenches. This line only moved after a half-point in their favor off of last week’s 38-6 win over Wyoming but arguably deserved more of an adjustment considering the way Illinois completely controlled the game in racking up a near 2 yard per play advantage. Play: Illinois +3.

Louisiana Tech +20 at Missouri, over/under: 61. This might be another instance where transfer-portal success isn’t being weighted heavily enough as Louisiana Tech’s Sonny Cumbie was the rare Conference USA coach who feasted on players looking for new homes. The Bulldogs have more than enough to hang with a mediocre Missouri side. Play: Louisiana Tech +20.

North Carolina +1 at Appalachian State, over/under: 56. Props to North Carolina for putzing around in the first half against Florida A&M last week and dropping this asking price by as many as 3.5 points. The Tar Heels have excellent skill players with the likes of wide receiver Josh Downs and running back Omarion Hampton presenting matchup problems for the Mountaineers. Play: North Carolina +1.

Troy +22.5 at Ole Miss, over/under: 58. Rumblings are that neither Jaxson Dart nor Luke Altmyer were particularly impressive behind center throughout Ole Miss camp, and this won’t be an easy spot for them to carry their competition into. The Trojans had one of the better Group of Five conference defenses in the nation a year ago, one that should improve with so many returning players and former Kentucky defensive coordinator Jon Sumrall as their new coach. Play: Troy +22.5.

Other Games

Lean: Oklahoma State -20 vs. Central Michigan

Lean: South Carolina -11.5 vs. Georgia State

Lean: San Diego State -6 vs. Arizona

Lean: Louisville -4 at Syracuse

Lean: TCU -13 at Colorado

Lean: Michigan -30 vs. Colorado State

Lean: Southern Miss +4 vs. Liberty

Lean: Mississippi State -15 vs. Memphis

Lean: Rutgers +7 at Boston College

Lean: Texas -37 vs. UL-Monroe

Lean: Kent State +23 at Washington

Lean: Western Kentucky -16 at Hawaii

Lean: UCLA -24 vs. Bowling Green

Lean: Florida Atlantic -4 at Ohio

Lean: Middle Tennessee State +6 at James Madison

Guess: USC -33 vs. Rice

Guess: Wyoming +6.5 vs. Tulsa

Guess: Kentucky -16.5 vs. Miami (Ohio)

Guess: Oklahoma -31 vs. UTEP

Guess: Purdue +3.5 vs. Penn State

Guess: Buffalo +24 at Maryland

Guess: Utah State +41.5 at Alabama

Guess: NC State -11 at East Carolina

Guess: Temple +7 at Duke

Guess: Tennessee -34 vs. Ball State

Guess: BYU -11 at South Florida

Guess: Coastal Carolina -2 vs. Army

Guess: New Mexico State +36 at Minnesota

Guess: Boise State +3 at Oregon State

Guess: Texas State +1 at UNR

Guess: Old Dominion +9 vs. Virginia Tech

Guess: North Texas +11 vs. SMU

Guess: UMass +29.5 at Tulane

Guess: Houston -4 at UTSA

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or