NFL betting: Finding a wager to make in every division

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Aug. 27, 2022 | 2 a.m.

The amount of preseason gambling options on the NFL can be paralyzing, as there are far more ways to bet the country’s most popular league than any of its competitors. Time is running out to accurately gauge all the markets with kickoff to the season two weeks away.

So, let’s run through the whole league and find some bets to make along the way, much like I did for college football earlier in the week.

Here’s one bet to make involving a team from every division, spanning a variety of different types of wagers.   

NFC East: Cowboys edge rusher Sam Williams to win Defensive Rookie of Year at 50-to-1 (Golden Nugget)

Previous wagers: Philadelphia Eagles to win the NFC at 14-to-1, CeeDee Lamb to lead the league in receiving at 20-to-1

One of the only reasons why the former Ole Miss edge rusher dropped out of the first round in the NFL Draft was character concerns that he’s seemed to work through. All reports out of training camp, and glimpses throughout the preseason, indicate he should have never been a second-round pick based on talent alone. He’s wreaking havoc, and after roster turnover on the defensive line, the Cowboys have a void for him to fill doing the same during the season. Defensive coordinator Dan Quinn empowered another rookie with a lot of responsibility to win this award last year in Micah Parsons. Williams is starting farther behind Parsons because of his draft position — which will also make it hard to beat out the likes of Jacksonville’s Travon Walker and Detroit’s Aidan Hutchinson — but he’s capable of keeping the award in Dallas.

NFC North: Vikings’ Kevin O’Connell to win Coach of the Year at 18-to-1 (Golden Nugget)

Previous wagers: Detroit Lions over 6.5 wins at -120

The Vikings are +240 to win the NFC North, a price that offers value as the gap between them and the Green Bay Packers appears to be less than the numbers indicate. But if Minnesota knocks Green Bay and back-to-back MVP winner Aaron Rodgers off the top for the first time in four years, how does its new coach not get serious Coach of the Year consideration? Heck, win the division and that might just win the award outright for him. The Vikings’ offense made too many strategic blunders under former coach Mike Zimmer, mistakes that a coach with a reputation as an offensive wiz like O’Connell shouldn’t make. If Minnesota improves, that change will regularly be cited and therefore naturally build O’Connell’s campaign.

NFC South: Carolina Panthers over 6 wins at -150 (STN Sports)

Previous wagers: New Orleans Saints to win the NFC South at +360, New Orleans Saints over 8.5 wins at Even money

I was tempted to dig around and find the best price on Buccaneers under 11 wins to include, but that feels too correlated to my established Saints’ position. So, let’s go another direction entirely. The Panthers are nothing special, but they aren’t among the dregs of the league despite their win total implying as much. Carolina’s defense has yet to fully come together but it’s stocked with as much young, highly-touted talent as any team in the league. The offense was the bigger problem a year ago, and a healthy Baker Mayfield at quarterback should go a long way in repairing that. Mayfield was well on his way to making a push as an above-average NFL quarterback before playing through an injury in his throwing shoulder last year.

NFC West: Arizona Cardinals +420 to win the division (Circa Sports)

Previous wagers: Los Angeles Rams under 10.5 wins at Even money

The Rams had to go on a tear to catch the Cardinals and win the NFC West by a single game a year ago. The 49ers finished a game behind the Cardinals and lost to them by 14 points in a contest started by Colt McCoy. All of that has been too easily forgotten, as the Cardinals have become more of a punchline especially after the homework provision in Kyler Murray’s new contract. The Cardinals are indeed the third-best team in the NFC West, but the gap between the three is much narrower than the futures show. Arizona lost some productive veterans on defense, but who’s to say young players up front like Zaven Collins and Rashard Lawrence can't make a leap? By most projection systems, Arizona should be no higher than 3-to-1 to win the NFC West. This is much higher, and worth a small play in the event that the thin Rams suffer a couple injuries and 49ers quarterback Trey Lance isn’t ready to takeover the league immediately.

AFC East: New England Patriots +130 on the moneyline at Miami Dolphins in Week 1 (STN Sports)

Previous wagers: Buffalo Bills under 11.5 wins at +125

All the narratives have lined up to make the Dolphins a flimsy favorite in two weeks when the season starts. The Patriots have looked poor in training camp, especially on offense without new Raiders coach Josh McDaniels at the helm. The Dolphins have the splashy new personnel like wide receiver Tyreek Hill. Oh, and don’t forget New England always struggles in Miami. I’m not buying much of any of that talk. Yes, the Patriots have lost four of the last five years in Miami but the circumstances of some of those defeats are downright bizarre. The Dolphins might have the higher ceiling, but the Patriots are the safer team to back. They have the better roster top to bottom. The +130 on the money line is generous, more valuable than either the +2.5  or +3.5 -120 point spreads available.

AFC North: Baltimore Ravens over 3.5 division wins at -105 (Caesars/William Hill)

Previous wagers: Cincinnati Bengals under 9.5 wins

Value existed on the Ravens to win the division earlier in the summer, and even on their win total, but it’s washed away on reaction to the news of Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson’s 11-game suspension. Baltimore went from as high as +220 to win the AFC North to as low as +110. They’re still the best team on paper, but it’s now necessary to get creative to find a way to back them for the season. This looks like the best route. The only divisional game where I currently make Baltimore an underdog is at Cincinnati. That could change with Watson returning before the Ravens’ trip to the Browns in Week 14, but it’s not like they will be massive underdogs in that spot either barring injury.

AFC South: Indianapolis Colts under 9.5 wins at +140 (BetMGM)

Previous wagers: Houston Texas over 4.5 wins at Even money

The hype on the Colts has gone overboard. It’s like no one remembers the last time they were on the field they lost a must-win game 28-14 to Jacksonville, the team with the worst record in the league last year. Is new quarterback Matt Ryan a clear upgrade to Carson Wentz last year? Maybe but it’s hard to say definitively with Ryan now 37 years old and declining in each of the past two seasons with the Falcons. And while their usual top divisional competition, the Tennessee Titans, may take a step back, the other two AFC South teams, the Texans and Jaguars, should be more competitive. Their defense was more consistent than their offense last year, but coordinator Matt Eberflus left to take the Bears’ coaching job. Former Raiders defensive coordinator Gus Bradley is stepping in but there’s no guarantee he’ll pick up right where Eberflus left off. A great defense is, in fact, harder to maintain from year-to-year than offense.

AFC West: Los Angeles Chargers 14-to-1 to win the Super Bowl (Caesars/William Hill)

Previous wagers: Patrick Mahomes to win MVP at 10-to-1, Las Vegas Raiders under 8.5 wins  at +140

The Chargers might have the most complete roster in the NFL. All that held them back last year was a mediocre defense, full of a number of holdover players that didn’t fit new coach Brandon Staley’s scheme. Staley went about correcting that this offseason with acquisitions like cornerback J.C. Jackson (who will miss the start of the year) and linebacker Khalil Mack. The Los Angeles offense is electric, and should get only better as quarterback Justin Herbert enters his third year and draws MVP buzz. The Chargers have a somewhat challenging opening two weeks, hosting the Raiders and traveling to the Chiefs, but then will be at least a 4-point favorite in their next six games. The early schedule makes the preseason a good buy point on the Chargers.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or