College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Week 0

By Case Keefer (contact)

Wednesday, Aug. 24, 2022 | 2 a.m.

Months of preparation finally begins to pay off, or at the very least gets put into action, on Saturday with the first set of college football games. Week 0 is here, with seven games pitting Football Bowl Subdivision teams against each other for widespread betting action.

For the third straight year, Talking Points will come along for every step of the season and handicap every game. Last year was a good, though not great, betting season.

Georgia came up big to cash a College Football Playoff future and outweigh a mediocre 75-75 record on plays in the College Football by the Odds column. The overall performance was better, however, with a 372-353-9 record picking every game.

I’m confident I can top all those marks this season. I’ll get to the usual setup, picking a handful of the biggest games and strongest plays to write about, but with this week’s slate so short, let’s break down all the games.

Read below for picks on every Week 0 game. Lines are the best available on the chosen side at publication time in Las Vegas. Picks are labeled with three separate confidence categories.

Northwestern + 13 vs Nebraska in Dublin, Ireland, over/under 49.5. Some may caution to stay away from the favorite here because the line has risen a field goal, or even 3.5 points at certain books, after opening as low as -10 but there’s still value. Nebraska’s offense was actually quite decent a year ago and should be even better with Texas transfer Casey Thompson taking over at quarterback — assuming his whole offensive line hasn’t succumbed to heat stroke. Northwestern might be a bet-on team eventually this season but they have one of the Big Ten’s lowest rate of returning production on defense so it’s going take some time. As long as the line is below -14, it’s still playable. Play: Nebraska -13.

Charlotte +7.5 at Florida Atlantic, over/under: 59.5. Based on last year’s data alone, this line is too high but Florida Atlantic probably deserves a boost going into this season. The Owls made a couple inspired coordinator hires in Brent Dearmon on offense and Todd Orlando on defense. Given Charlotte’s defensive deficiencies, there’s  a chance this turns into a shotoout. That would give Florida Atlantic’s talent advantage via stronger recruiting a chance to shine. Still, laying more than a touchdown with so many unknowns is tough to do. Guess: Charlotte +7.5.

UNR -9 at New Mexico State, over/under: 50.5. There’s a good chance these turn out to be two of the worst five or so teams in the nation. New Mexico State has been the single worst Football Bowl Subdivision program for more than two decades, but there’s some optimism with new coach Jerry Kill stepping in. At least he was able to retain some of last year’s roster (mostly on defense), which is more than can be said for the Wolf Pack’s Ken Wilson who’s starting from scratch. Lean: New Mexico State +9.

Connecticut +27.5 at Utah State, over/under: 60.5. Yes, Utah State won the Mountain West last year but virtually that entire core minus quarterback Logan Bonner is gone. They also didn’t do all that impressively, winning only one game by a margin as large as this spread and only beating New Mexico State by 22 points. The Huskies have a long way to go, but should be a bit more respectable under new coach Jim Mora. Lean: Connecticut +27.5.

North Texas pick’em at UTEP, over/under: 55. It’s hard to trust North Texas with how erratic it’s been under coach Seth Littrell, but the Mean Green looked reborn in winning and covering their final four regular season games last season. They should be able to build on that with the return of quarterback Austin Aune and almost all of his top targets. Lean: North Texas pick’em.

Wyoming +11 at Illinois, over/under: 44. The Illini should win comfortably, but this is a large spread for a game that will likely be contested at a crawl with the lowest Week 0 total by nearly a touchdown. I made an Illinois a 10-point favorite, exactly where it sat until recent money came in on Wyoming. Guess: Wyoming +11.

Vanderbilt -7.5 at Hawaii, over/under: 53.5. No, Vanderbilt isn’t going to turn into “the best program in the country” as coach Clark Lea vowed but it’s a heck of a lot closer than Hawaii this year. The Warriors need a year, or two, to rebuild after the disastrous tenure of Todd Graham left the roster ravaged. Lean: Vanderbilt -7.5.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or