Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 14 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Dec. 8, 2022 | 2 a.m.

After the Dallas Cowboys lost a Week 1 game to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and saw quarterback Dak Prescott go down with a thumb injury, their odds to win the Super Bowl swelled to as high as 50-to-1.

It would sure feel nice to be holding one of those tickets right now. The Cowboys are now down as low as a 6-to-1 fourth choice in the futures market — behind only the Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles.

There’s a strong case to be made that Dallas has been the most impressive team in the league since Prescott returned for a 24-7 Week 7 victory over the Detroit Lions as 7-point favorites. The Cowboys have gone 5-1 straight-up, 4-2 against the spread with Prescott back in the fold and built the largest point differential (+127) in the league.

That’s largely a byproduct of notching the two most lopsided wins in the NFL this season, each in the last three weeks. First, they beat the Vikings 40-3 as 1.5-point favorites two weeks ago and then smashed the Colts 54-19 as 11-point favorites on last week’s Sunday Night Football.

Another such blowout could be on tap this week when Dallas hosts lowly Houston, which holds an NFL-worst -99 point differential.

That’s part of the reason why bettors who like the Cowboys should act now. The most common odds of +275 to win the NFC and 7-to-1 to win the Super Bowl may look short, but based on how they’re playing now, they’re only going to get shorter.

Read on for picks on every Week 14 game. Picks are separated into three confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time. The overall record now stands at 105-84-5 after going 11-4 last week.

Plays (29-24-5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 at San Francisco 49ers Tampa Bay’s defense has continued playing at a high level despite the team’s overall struggles and a lengthy injury report on a weekly basis. The unit could be getting back reinforcements in its secondary this week to make passing extremely difficult on 49ers debuting rookie quarterback Brock Purdy.

Las Vegas Raiders -6 at Los Angeles Rams The Raiders are on enough of a roll that they should be laying a full seven points against a Rams’ team that, after injuries, is mostly comprised by players that should be on the fringes of NFL rosters. The Seahawks closed a 7-point favorite against the Rams last week after all — ultimately winning 27-23 — and the Raiders just bet them in Seattle while racking up a near 1.5 net yard per play advantage.

Seattle Seahawks -3.5 vs. Carolina Panthers Seattle is fading fast with three straight against-the-spread losses, but this looks like a get-right spot against one of the few teams it’s at a talent advantage against. The Seahawks should be getting more of a homefield boost for the near 2,300-mile trip from Charlotte to Seattle.

Cleveland Browns +6 at Cincinnati Bengals The lookahead line on this game was Cincinnati -3.5 before the Bengals’ 27-24 upset win over the Chiefs last week combined with quarterback Deshaun Watson’s struggles in his Browns’ debut, a 27-14 win over the Texans. A 2.5-point adjustment is too much of an overreaction to one week’s worth of games.

Leans (35-36)

Los Angeles Chargers +3 vs. Miami Dolphins It looks like this number is going to hit +3.5, so the smart way to play it is waiting until that happens to bet on the Chargers. Los Angeles should be getting a handful of injured players back — including as many as three starters on the offensive line — to make this more of an evenly-matched game hosting Miami.

Jacksonville Jaguars +4 at Tennessee Titans Jacksonville has a relatively clean injury list for this time of the season and has played like a worthy playoff team at its best. Consistency has been the issue, but it’s easier to embrace the variance when a high-ceiling, low-floor team like the Jaguars are getting points on the spread.

New York Jets +9.5 at Buffalo Bills The Jets’ defense forced the Bills’ offense into arguably their most inefficient outing of the year last month in a 20-17 victory as 11-point underdogs. There’s no reason they shouldn’t be able to turn the rematch into another ugly, low-scoring affair.

Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens With the progress Pittsburgh has shown in winning and covering in three of its last four games, it was going to have a chance against Baltimore even before quarterback Lamar Jackson went down with a knee injury. Against backup Tyler Huntley, the Steelers should be at least a 3-point favorite.

Guesses (41-24)

Kansas City Chiefs -9 at Denver Broncos Weekly Herculean efforts from the Broncos’ defense are the only thing keeping the team from getting blown out, but how long can that sustain in a lost season? Defensive performance tends to fluctuate more on a week-by-week basis and even the Broncos may not be immune — especially not against Patrick Mahomes.

Arizona Cardinals +1.5 vs. New England Patriots The Patriots’ defense has been exceptional, but their offense ranks 27^th in the league by expected points added per play. It’s not comfortable laying points on the road, no matter how few, with an offense that’s shown a tendency to be that unproductive.

Detroit Lions -2 vs. Minnesota Vikings The Lions had no business blowing their first game against the Vikings earlier this year when they led 24-14 midway through the fourth quarter. With five straight covers, and outright wins in four of their last five, the Lions seem to have figured out how to finish and should be able to atone for the collapse this time around.

Philadelphia Eagles -7 at New York Giants There’s a reason this line hasn’t budged in several days — it’s perfect. But if forced, I’d prefer to back the one-loss team whose offense only seems to be getting more dynamic as the season goes on.

Dallas Cowboys -17 vs. Houston Texans Houston has failed to cover five straight, and there’s no end in sight to its struggles. This certainly looks like a game between the team playing the best in the NFL against the team playing the worst.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or