Weekend wagers: Mixing in Heisman, NFL MVP bets with four other sports

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, July 23, 2022 | 2 a.m.

It’s fitting that the Raiders became the first NFL team to report to training camp this year, because football season always starts a little earlier in Las Vegas.

A couple cursory glances at the betting market this week shows football is already in full swing, at least at local sports books. Future odds are moving quickly in almost every category, so quickly that it feels like time to start placing some football bets in the Weekend Wagers.

My plan was to hold off and give football several of its own columns in the coming weeks, but that’s no longer possible. A lot of bets I’ve played over the past month or so have since moved out of range, so there can be no more waiting.

I’ll cap this week’s column with a player future in each college football and the NFL to go with bets on all the usual other in-season sports.

Read on for this weekend’s plays. Records are attached for each individual sport since the column restarted for 2022 post-football season with a cumulative tally at the bottom of the page. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas at publication time.

Golf (5-7-2, $5,682.50): Patton Kizzire -110 vs. Chesson Hadley in third round of 3M Open (SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas)

$275 to win $250

I don't even consider these two golfers in the same tier under normal circumstances, let alone playing on a course like TPC Twin Cities in Minnesota. The 3M Open rewards strong approach play and driving accuracy, two areas where Kizzire is above average and Hadley is not. They're both sitting at 5-under par, eight strokes back of the lead, through two rounds but their history in this relatively new event further shows that Kizzire should separate himself over the weekend. Although he's never truly contended for the win in Minneapolis, Kizzire has the made the cut in all three years since the tournament was introduced. Hadley has only made the cut once, and never finished within three strokes of Kizzire, who should be at least a -130 favorite in this matchup. 

MLB (13-4, $1,643): Miami Marlins -110 vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Wynn)

$220 to win $200

Marlins super-prospect Max Meyer got hit hard in his majors debut last week, giving up seven runs in a 10-0 loss to the Phillies. That “welcome to the bigs, kid” moment is to the benefit of gamblers in the end, though as they’re getting a great price to back the 23-year-old potential top-line starter out of the University of Minnesota here. Meyer still has great stuff, and it’s easy to chalk up his first start as a case of the jitters or just simply an off day. Pittsburgh’s lineup is not nearly as imposing as Philadelphia’s, so he should be set up for success. Meyer should settle in Saturday and lead the Marlins to a victory.  

MLB (13-4, $1,643): Texas Rangers -120 vs. Oakland A’s (Wynn)

$240 to win $200

The A’s somehow didn’t totally embarrass themselves on the field over the first half of the season. They were at least somewhat competitive, or at least more competitive than their -118 run differential implies they should have been. It’s going to be a long final three months, especially when Saturday’s starter James Kaprielian is on the mound. Kaprielian has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball, and he won’t get any breaks against a powerful Rangers’ offense. In contrast to the A’s, the Rangers underperformed over baseball’s first half. They’re better than their 42-49 record, and should finish the season around .500.

UFC (11-16, -$1,513): Curtis Blaydes +135 vs. Tom Aspinall at UFC Fight Night 208 (South Point)

$260 to win $351

This line keeps shooting in Aspinall’s direction, and perhaps this will prove my demise, but I just don’t get it. Blaydes is a terrible matchup for the rising undefeated heavyweight. Aspinall has finished all five of his opponents in the UFC in less than seven minutes, but none of them have the wrestling chops of Blaydes. It wasn’t that long ago that Blaydes was considered future championship material. Why are we so sure the 31-year-old still can’t reach that level? Two of his three career losses came against current champion Francis Ngannou. Aging curves at heavyweight skew much later than the smaller weight classes, with several champions having come of age in their late 30s or even early 40s. But all that matters now is Blaydes beats Aspinall, something he should have a great chance to do even fighting on enemy soil in London.  

NASCAR (9-7, $1,390): Martin Truex at 12-to-1 and Ryan Blaney at 14-to-1 to win M&Ms Fan Appreciation 400 (SuperBook and South Point, respectively)

$100 to win $1,200 on Truex and $90 to win $1,260 on Blaney

These are two of NASCAR’s best drivers, but they’re both at risk of missing the upcoming Cup playoffs because they don’t have a race victory in a season that has produced so many different winners. That possibility should mean their manufacturers and teams — Penske and Ford for Blaney, Joe Gibbs Racing and Toyota for Truex — will be extra focused on giving them the best opportunity to win down the stretch of the regular season. Oh, and they both have great history at Pocono where this Sunday’s race is being held. Neither Blaney nor Truex should be available at higher than 10-to-1. NASCAR has more parity this season than it has in some time, but I’ll take  shots with these two desperate and proven drivers this weekend.

College football (0-0, $0): TreVeyon Henderson at 50-to-1 to win the Heisman Trophy (SuperBook)

$100 to win $5,000

Remember when Michigan State running back Kenneth Walker was a surprise Heisman candidate late into the year last season? This came despite him not having anywhere near the numbers — especially the advanced numbers — to justify such hype. Much like Alabama receiver DeVonta Smith edging out his own quarterback Mac Jones the year before, it spoke to a desire among the voters and fans to make sure the trophy doesn’t become a quarterback-exclusive award. So while most are debating which quarterbacks could stand out — and, full disclosure, I have bet a couple quarterbacks in this market — I’d rather try to uncover what surprise skill player could enter the conversation. Henderson looks like a clear choice, especially at 50-to-1. The difference between Henderson and Walker is the former will have the numbers. He averaged 6.8 yards per carry and scored 19 combined rushing and receiving touchdowns in his freshman year at Ohio State. This year, he could be the focal point of one of the best offenses of the decade. Quarterback C.J. Stroud deserves to be the favorite from the Buckeyes, but having him at 2-to-1 with Henderson at a price 25 times higher feels wrong.

NFL (0-0, $0): Patrick Mahomes at 10-to-1 to win the MVP Award (SuperBook)

$200 to win $2,000

After the Chiefs quarterback won his first MVP award in 2018 and followed it with a Super Bowl victory the next season, would anyone have ever believed he’d be this high to win another MVP a few years later? I doubt it. Mahomes is in toughest spot of his brief career so far this season with the exit of Tyreek Hill and other skill players, but that’s not a huge detriment to this bet. That’s because if the Chiefs persist and pick up where they’ve been for the most part over the last three seasons with one of the best offenses in football, then Mahomes is going to get all the credit. That’s a distinct possibility. Mahomes might just put a season together that reminds everyone of his greatness. For my money, even with others defecting and choosing Josh Allen instead, he is the No. 1 player any team in the NFL should want to start a franchise with. Mahomes belongs among the favorites every year, or at least a bit lower than this price.

Weekend wagers year to date: 56-60-2, $6,216.50

Weekend betting column all-time: 398-390-4, $12,192.93

Previous pending wagers: Philadelphia Union 16-to-1 to win MLS Cup ($125 to win $2,000); Seattle Mariners +650 to win AL West ($100 to win $650); Vegas Golden Knights at 15-to-1 to win the 2023 Stanley Cup ($200 to win $3,000)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or