Weekend wagers: Five bets on five different sports

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, March 5, 2022 | 2 a.m.

Baseball preparation would typically be starting in earnest around this part of the calendar. Digging through futures market and beginning to build Major League Baseball portfolios might be second to only the NCAA Tournament in terms of betting joys in March.

It’s not happening this year, at least not for me. Not until the league and the player’s union come to an agreement to solve their labor dispute.

Many futures — including to win the World Series, leagues and divisions — are up but there are too many variables especially in terms of season length to go in full bore on betting. Heck, several free agency dominoes are still to fall.

So don’t expect to see any baseball coverage in the weekend wagers for the time being. Luckily, there are still plenty of other sports to handicap and I’ll keep sticking to the creed of placing at least five bets on five different sports.

This week it’s more like 11 bets on six sports, as the five below combine with six from yesterday’s UFC 272 betting preview that will be tracked here. Make sure to check that out because it will play a large role in the goal to dig out of the hole created by a disappointing result in last week’s season debut column.

Read below for this weekend’s five bets on five different sports. Records are attached for each individual sport with a cumulative tally at the bottom of the page. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas at publication time.

PGA Tour (0-1, -$157.50): Rory McIlroy 4-to-1 to win Arnold Palmer Invitational (Boyd Sports)

$100 to win $400

It’s about to get really windy at Bay Hill in Orlando over the next two days, and there might not be a top-tier player in the world I trust more than McIlroy in the wind. The four-time major winner has also luckily already established himself near the top of the leaderboard through the first 36 holes. He led by two strokes after Round 1, at 7-under par, but had to settle for an Even par score on Friday to fall two shots behind leader Viktor Hovland. But nothing really looked wrong with McIlroy in the second round. He continued to mash the ball off the tee, but just missed some putts. Most other sports books are at 3-to-1 for him to win the tournament, which is closer to his true price. After Friday’s round, I told myself I would add him to my pre-tournament outrights if he was available at 4-to-1 anywhere. Boyd thankfully obliged.   

College basketball (0-0-1, $0): Kentucky -4.5 at Florida (South Point)

$110 to win $100

The Wildcats killed me a week ago with a last-second 3-pointer to push a weekend wagers play against them on Arkansas. It’s going to be a lot more comfortable to be backing Kentucky this weekend. I wrote last week that it “might be the most dangerous team in the country,” and I stand by that even more with the Wildcats’ full roster now back. Sitting on the NCAA Tournament bubble, Florida is desperate for a win, but too often this time of the year desperation is overvalued in the market. Kentucky isn’t going to lay down for Florida. The Wildcats want to be sharp going into the postseason themselves, and it’s hard to see them being anything but that against an underwhelming Gators’ side.

NHL (0-1, -$200): Ottawa Senators -115 vs. Arizona Coyotes (Wynn)

$230 to win $200

For the first time this season, Arizona seems to be getting a smidgen of respect from the betting market. I’m not sure it’s justified. Yes, the Coyotes have won three of their last five — and all against good teams to boot in Colorado, Vegas and Dallas — but the victories haven’t been as impressive as they look on the scoreboard. They still had fewer expected goals than their opponent in all those instances. They’re far and away the least talented team in the league with even a fellow bottom-feeder like Ottawa holding an advantage. Arizona opened -105 in this matchup, which is the second shortest line it’s commanded all year. It’s a sign that now is the time to jump back on the bandwagon of betting against the Coyotes.

NASCAR (0-1, -$200): Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Even money vs. Daniel Suarez in Pennzoil 400 (SuperBook)

$200 to win $200

There will be more betting options on this weekend’s local Cup race than any other this season, but for the most part, it’s going to be wiser to wait until Saturday’s practice session to start firing wagers. This is one of the only matchups that should require no such delay. This looks like an overreaction to Suarez finishing fourth in Fontana last week. It was a good showing, but not a telling one. The Trackhouse driver’s car was actually much slower than that, running in an average position of 14^th. No one likes to bet on Stenhouse because of his reputation for wrecks but that’s something he’s avoided more often than usual at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, which has been among his best tracks. Stenhouse has been faster than Suarez in each of the first two races of the season, at Daytona and Fontana. Las Vegas is totally different than both of those tracks but he still deserves to be the favorite in this matchup.

MLS (0-0, $0): LAFC -140 vs. Portland Timbers (SuperBook)

$210 to win $150

LAFC should be a steamroller in the MLS this season, and it’s worth betting it every week until the market adjusts. Los Angeles opened the season last week by beating Colorado, which had the best record in the Western Conference last year, 3-0 and there shouldn’t be much to save Portland from a similar fate. LAFC is as high as -175 in the 90-minute market elsewhere and might still be worth a look at that price. I wouldn’t recommend betting much higher than that, but -140 is well within range. LAFC should be able to overwhelm a second straight opponent.

Weekend wagers year to date: 1-3, -$357.50

Weekend betting column all-time: 243-233-1, $6,160.93

Previous pending wagers: Full UFC 272 bets; Jon Rahm 12-to-1 to win 2022 Masters ($100 to win $1,200); Texas 50-to-1 to win 2022 NCAA Tournament ($100 to win $5,000); Philadelphia Union 16-to-1 to win MLS Cup ($125 to win $2,000)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or