NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of the East Region

By Case Keefer (contact)

Published Tuesday, March 15, 2022 | 1:30 p.m.

Updated Wednesday, March 16, 2022 | 2:42 p.m.

Like clockwork, analysts describe the NCAA Tournament as “wide open” every year whether that’s really the case or not.

There’s some truth to the phrase this year, as Gonzaga’s consensus +280 (i.e. risking $100 to win $280) price to win the championship at the top of future boards is slightly less than the favored team of the past couple years. The space between contenders after that is even more compressed as 11 other teams fall in between 6-to-1 to 20-to-1, according to the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and several other shops.

A region-high four of those other teams packed behind Gonzaga fall in the East bracket in No. 1 seed Baylor, No. 2 seed Kentucky, No. 3 seed Purdue and No. 4 seed UCLA. The East is where this year’s tournament is unequivocally wide open, with each team in that quartet all given at least a 15% chance of reaching the Final Four in New Orleans by the betting odds after adjusting for hold percentage.

Three other teams — No. 5 seed St. Mary’s, No. 6 seed Texas and No. 8 seed North Carolina — are given at least a 4% chance. In other words, there are a lot of good teams with a lot of good cases to be made in the East.

Baylor are the defending champions. Kentucky might have the best player in the nation in Oscar Tshiebwe. Purdue might have the best offense in the nation. UCLA got to the Final Four last year with virtually the same team. St. Mary’s and North Carolina both got red-hot at the end of the year.

It’s going to be fun to watch this group play out next week in Philadelphia, no matter which four teams make it that far. Let’s try to figure that out though over the first two rounds.

Read below for picks on every East Region game. Lines are the best currently available on the chosen side in Las Vegas at publication time. Picks are labeled with three separate confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. They will be updated when more matchups become official after the First Four games. This is the second of a four-part series. Read part 1 here and check back over the next two days for the other regions.

No. 6 seed Texas pick’em vs. No. 11 seed Virginia Tech Contrary to popular belief, there’s historically been no correlation between conference tournament success and NCAA Tournament success. Despite Virginia Tech’s memorable run to win the ACC Tournament, Texas has been the better team on the year — especially on defense. This will be a tight game, but before the conference tournaments, Texas would have been more like -2.5 and that’s still a fairer price. Play: Texas pick’em.

No. 12 seed Indiana -4 vs. No. 12 seed Wyoming It’s no small advantage that Indiana gets to play less than 200 miles away from its campus on two days notice. More importantly, the Hoosiers have the exact kind of explosive offense behind Trayce Jackson-Davis that should give a Cowboys’ team that prefers to play more deliberately problems. Play: Indiana -4.

No. 5 seed St. Mary's -2.5 vs. No. 12 seed Indiana Indiana has now played four games since the last time St. Mary's was on the court and had to fly across the country from Dayton, Ohio, to Portland with one day to prepare for St. Mary's. This should be a close game and would be a fair line under normal circumstances, but the situational edge in favor of the Gaels might be worth more than the market is implying. Play: St. Mary's -2.5.

No. 7 seed Murray State -2 vs. No. 10 seed San Francisco San Francisco was more efficient against a better schedule, so this line is egregious if the Dons are at full strength. Problem is, there’s no guarantee they will be at full strength with standout big man Yauhen Massalski having missing their last game. This is a gamble that he plays, because if he does, this line may fly back closer to where it opened at San Francisco -1.5. Lean: San Francisco +2.

No. 3 Purdue -15.5 vs. No. 14 seed Yale Yale hasn’t seen an offense that remotely resembles Purdue’s uber-efficient, nonstop-passing attack all season. It’s a nightmare for the undersized Bulldogs to try to match up with Zach Edey and Trevion Williams outside, let alone with electric wing Jaden Ivey. Lean: Purdue -15.5

No. 8 seed North Carolina -3 vs. No. 9 seed Marquette There was never any doubt about North Carolina’s talent level this season; it was just a question about when the Tar Heels would start to channel it. They appear to have gotten there over the last month, where they’ve gone 6-1 straight-up and 5-2 against the spread. Marquette is talented in its own right but extremely young and likely a year away from tournament success. Lean: North Carolina -3.

No. 4 seed UCLA -14 vs. No. 13 seed Akron Because of the way the Bruins finished the season and the Final Four run they went on last year, there’s a premium added to all their betting lines. It’s questionable at best whether it’s worth paying considering UCLA has been highly inconsistent and had its share of failure around those two aforementioned stretches of success. Akron went on a heater to win the MAC Tournament and sneak into the tournament, and if it can maintain any of that efficiency, should be able to stay within this high number. Lean: Akron +14.

No. 1 seed Baylor -21 vs. No. 16 seed Norfolk State Baylor is beaten up and wasn’t the same team down the stretch of the season, but there’s got to be better spots coming to take advantage of their downturn by fading them. Norfolk St. got blown out every time it took on a major-conference or near-major conference team this season, including losing to Xavier by 40 points. It’s difficult to see the Spartans challenging the Bears in any way. Guess: Baylor -21.

No. 2 seed Kentucky -18 vs. No. 15 seed St. Peter’s The Peacocks were helpless on offense for most of the year before seeing something click over the last few weeks where it’s won and covered in seven straight games. Maintaining that against Kentucky is unlikely, but with the way St. Peter’s is playing, there should at least be some backdoor-covering potential of a spread that looks slightly inflated. Guess: St. Peter’s +18.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or