College football by the odds: Vegas preview and picks of every Week 11 game

By Case Keefer (contact)

Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022 | 2 a.m.

Alabama is all but eliminated from the national championship race earlier than it’s been in 15 years according to the betting market.

LSU did the honors of toppling the giant with a 32-31 overtime victory over Alabama Saturday night as 13.5-point home underdogs. Coupled with its 52-49 loss at Tennessee as 9.5-point favorites three weeks earlier, Alabama now needs all kinds of help just to win the SEC West and reach the SEC Championship Game.

That’s why the Crimson Tide are priced at 40-to-1 to win the national championship at most sports books, a price they haven’t swelled to before the end of the regular season since 2007 — coach Nick Saban’s first year with the program. With one more defeat — and this week’s trip to Ole Miss is priced closer than last week’s game at LSU — Saban would also experience only his second three-loss season in the span.

Over the last decade and a half of dominance, it’s become cliché to suggest never counting out Alabama. And perhaps brighter days are still ahead for the 71-year old Saban and college football’s most prestigious program.

Just don’t count on them coming this year. The betting market, after accounting for hold percentage, implies about a 1% chance that Alabama wins a seventh title under Saban this year.

It’s a jarring sight, but also given the situation, an accurate one.  

Read below for a pick on Alabama at Ole Miss and every other Week 11 game. Lines are the best available on the chosen side at publication time in Nevada. Picks are labeled with three separate confidence categories. The record on the year stands at 291-235-8 (53-65-1 on plays, 115-76-7 on leans and 123-94 on guesses).

Big Games

LSU -3 at Arkansas, over/under: 62. I wanted to take Arkansas here given the spot, a chance to sell high on LSU after the monumental Alabama win where it played at the absolute top end of its range. But I expected to get closer to six points, and refuse to force a bet when the value simply isn’t there against a shoddy Arkansas defense.  Guess: LSU -3.

Purdue +6.5 at Illinois, over/under: 47.5. This is a suddenly must-win game for both sides in the race for the Big Ten West title that offers an intriguing stylistic matchup between Illinois’ brute strength and Purdue’s sometimes-lethal smoothness. It’s easy to see the Boilermakers’ style winning out but it’s hard to take anything less than 7. Guess: Purdue +6.5.

Alabama -12.5 at Ole Miss, over/under: 63.5. Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin and the Rebels will never surrender, which is a pretty big factor when considering a spread this large. Alabama should have its way with Mississippi’s mediocre defense, but Kiffin hasn’t slowed down in endgame situations all year regardless of the circumstance and typically makes shrewd in-game decisions earlier.Lean: Ole Miss +12.5.

UCF +2 at Tulane, over/under: 53. This could quite possibly determine who’s in control of their fate to snag the Group of Five conferences’ automatic bid into a New Year’s Six bowl game. UCF backup quarterback Mikey Keene was impressive filling in for the injured John Rhys Plumlee last week, completing 22 of 28 passes for 219 yards and three touchdowns in a 35-28 win over Memphis as 3.5-point favorites. That was the only question mark for the Knights, which are stronger than the Green Wave statistically.  Lean: UCF +2.

Georgia -16 at Mississippi State, over/under: 53.5. Only two weeks ago, Alabama strong-armed Mississippi State 30-6 as 21.5-point favorites. With Georgia looking like an upgraded version of Alabama, what’s to stop the Bulldogs from doing the same thing? Guess: Georgia -16.

Washington +13.5 at Oregon, over/under: 77.5. The spread here has been steadily rising, so the smart move might be to wait for a 14 to appear but the line is already as much as 3.5 points too high. Washington has been fading because of poor defensive play but is more than capable of keeping up in a shootout, and also narrowly rates ahead of Oregon on the year in expected points added per play. Play: Washington +13.5.

TCU +7 at Texas, over/under: 64.5. This number looks right, but I’m getting sick of getting beaten by TCU and its parade of luck each and every week. Since I’m also holding a Big 12 futures position on Texas, this coin-flip pick  is also somewhat of an emotional hedge. Guess: TCU +7.

Big Plays

Rutgers +10 at Michigan State, over/under: 40. Even with their handful of indefinite suspensions still being served after the tunnel brawl at Michigan, Michigan State still holds a clear talent edge here. The spread should be closer to two touchdowns. Play: Michigan State -10.

Notre Dame -16 at Navy, over/under: 42.5. This is not a vintage Navy team, though it’s often priced as if that’s the case. The Midshipmen may also be worn down after playing seven straight weeks while Notre Dame just might have figured it out in last week’s 35-14 win over Clemson as 4-point underdogs. Play: Notre Dame -16.

Charlotte +11.5 at Middle Tennessee, over/under: 69.5. Charlotte, which lot 59-7 to Western Kentucky last week, is  in complete disarray after the firing of coach Will Healy. Middle Tennessee also suffered big loss, a 40-24 setback to Louisiana Tech, but that was more about its -4 turnover margin and should be more easily correctable. Play: Middle Tennessee -11.5.

North Texas +6 at UAB, over/under: 57.5. North Texas has been a moneymaking machine with six straight covers and there’s no reason why it should stop rolling now. UAB is formidable but quarterback Dylan Hopkins could miss his third straight game with a concussion. Play: North Texas +6.

Iowa State -1 at Oklahoma State, over/under: 48.5. The Cowboys have failed to cover by 53.5 combined points the last two weeks and there’s no end in sight to their struggles. The market can’t catch up quickly enough to account for their widespread injuries. Play: Iowa State -1.

South Carolina +8.5 at Florida, over/under: 59.5. Florida deserves to be favored, but to lay this many points looks like an overreaction to last week’s 41-24 win over Texas A&M as 1.5-point underdogs. As if the Aggies’ sinking fortunes weren’t enough, they also had flu sweep through the locker room to weaken them for the Gators. Play: South Carolina +8.5.

Kansas +4 at Texas Tech, over/under: 64.5. The Red Raiders are going to put up a load of points on an outgunned Jayhawks’ secondary but the visitors have shown an ability to hang around in such games all season. They’ll be even better suited to do so if this is the week early-season Heisman darkhorse Jalon Daniels returns at quarterback. Play: Kansas +4.

Other Games

Play: Southern Miss +11.5 at Coastal Carolina

Lean: Clemson -7 vs. Louisville

Lean: Northwestern +18 at Minnesota

Lean: West Virginia +8.5 vs. Oklahoma

Lean: Auburn -1.5 vs. Texas A&M

Lean: North Carolina +4 at Wake Forest

Lean: Fresno State -10 at UNLV

Lean: Washington State -8 vs. Arizona State

Lean: Pittsburgh -4 at Virginia

Lean: Ohio -1 at Miami (Ohio)

Lean: Old Dominion +8 vs. James Madison

Lean: South Florida +17.5 vs. SMU

Lean: Louisiana -3 vs. Georgia Southern

Lean: Central Michigan +2.5 vs. Buffalo

Lean: Boston College +20 at NC State

Lean: Syracuse +6.5 vs. Florida State

Lean: Bowling Green +3 vs. Kent State

Lean: Western Kentucky -13 vs. Rice

Lean: Georgia State -13 vs. UL-Monroe

Lean: Air Force -22.5 vs. New Mexico

Lean: Texas State +16.5 at South Alabama

Lean: Hawaii +11.5 vs. Utah State

Guess: East Carolina +6 at Cincinnati

Guess: Wyoming -8 at Colorado State

Guess: Houston -19.5 vs. Temple

Guess: Florida Atlantic -15.5 at Florida International

Guess: Miami +1.5 at Georgia Tech

Guess: UNR +21.5 vs. Boise State

Guess: Memphis -6.5 vs. Tulsa

Guess: Marshall +1 vs. Appalachian State

Guess: Nebraska +29 at Michigan

Guess: Western Michigan pick’em vs. Northern Illinois

Guess: Akron +7.5 vs. Eastern Michigan

Guess: Duke -10 vs. Virginia Tech

Guess: Colorado +34.5 at USC

Guess: Toledo -11 vs. Ball State

Guess: Missouri +21 at Tennessee

Guess: Wisconsin pick’em at Iowa

Guess: Troy -8 vs. Army

Guess: Indiana +40 at Ohio State

Guess: Penn State -10 vs. Maryland

Guess: Vanderbilt +17 at Kentucky

Guess: Arizona +19.5 at UCLA

Guess: UTSA -18 vs. Louisiana Tech

Guess: California +14 at Oregon State

Guess: Stanford +24 at Utah

Guess: Connecticut +14.5 vs. Liberty

Guess: Baylor -3 vs. Kansas State

Guess: Arkansas State -17 vs. Massachusetts

Guess: San Diego State +2.5 vs. San Jose State

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or