College football by the odds: Vegas preview and picks of every Week 6 game

By Case Keefer (contact)

Tuesday, Oct. 4, 2022 | 2 a.m.

On a weekend with one of the final Big 12 editions of the Red River Shootout, the focus in the conference instead belongs to a game between a pair of teams that finished last and second-to-last a year ago.   

Welcome to the wild and wonderful world of this year’s Big 12, where circumstances have conspired to make a showdown between Kansas and TCU this week’s headline affair. Betting odds priced the Big 12 as the most wide-open power conference from the beginning of the season, but it’s been even more wacky than anticipated.

The Jayhawks were supposed to be the one scratch-off team with no chance, as they were as high as 250-to-1 to win the Big 12 in the offseason. The Horned Frogs were more in the middle of the pack at as high as 20-to-1.

But they’re both now contenders after undefeated starts to the year. TCU is down to +450 (i.e. risking $100 to win $450) to win the Big 12 at Caesars/William Hill, while Kansas is 12-to-1. Oklahoma State (+250), Kansas State (+320) and Texas (4-to-1) top the odds board, but seven of 10 teams in the league are available at 15-to-1 or lower. The other four power conferences average only four teams apiece at the low of a price.

Texas is the best bet to make at the current odds, especially at Circa Sports where the Longhorns are +450, as it’s shown the most upside of any Big 12 team despite a pair of losses. So lock that futures play in as the first bet of the week, even though it would feel a bit anticlimactic if a traditional power won the conference this year. Kansas or TCU somehow prevailing would be more fitting, and one of the two will take a big step forward in that mission Saturday morning in Lawrence, Kan.  

Maybe the rest of this week’s selections will be easier to root for.

Read below for picks on every Week 6 game. Lines are the best available on the chosen side at publication time in Nevada. Picks are labeled with three separate confidence categories. The record for the season stands at 147-118-3 (31-30 on plays, 57-38-3 on leans and 59-50 on guesses) after a 29-26-1 (9-6 on plays, 10-10-1 on leans and 10-10 on guesses) showing in Week 5.

Big Games

Tennessee -2.5 at LSU, over/under: 64. Tennessee is coming off a bye, but it might not be as helpful as usual considering how many long-term injuries the Volunteers are trying to manage. Star wide receiver Cedric Tillman reportedly had ankle surgery recently, so it’s difficult to imagine him returning even though he hasn’t been ruled out. Play: LSU +2.5.

TCU -7.5 at Kansas, over/under: 68. The steam on the Horned Frogs has gone too far. TCU was worth a nibble at the opening -5.5, but jumping over the 7 at one sports book (Station Casinos) is too much and glosses over the improving defense that has accompanied Kansas’ sustained offensive success. Guess: Kansas +7.5.

Texas -6.5 vs. Oklahoma in Dallas, over/under: 65.5. There’s total uncertainty on several injury situations here early in the week, which makes this next to impossible to handicap. But it looks like a distinct possibility that Oklahoma could be down to its third quarterback, in which case this line will skyrocket. Guess: Texas -6.5.

Auburn +30 at Georgia, over/under: 48.5. The number may look like a lot after Georgia struggled to get by Missouri 26-22 as 28.5-point favorites last week, but Auburn is down both of its starting-caliber quarterbacks. Georgia is dealing with a rash of its own injuries but this is not a spot to take a stand against the defending national champions. Guess: Georgia -30.

Utah -4.5 at UCLA, over/under: 64.5. If forced to make a play, take the under as both defenses better than advertised and should keep this from turning into a shootout. And in a low scoring game, points and the underdog become more valuable. Guess: UCLA +4.5.

North Carolina +4 at Miami, over/under: 66. As someone sitting on a North Carolina to win the Coastal Division ticket, I hate to say it but this looks like a buy-low spot on Miami. The Hurricanes had a bye week to work on their issues coming out of a shocking loss to Middle Tennessee and try to boost the confidence of capable-but-shaken quarterback Tyler Van Dyke. Lean: Miami -4.

Washington State +13 at USC, over/under: 66. USC has caught a lot of breaks, namely with turnovers, to still be undefeated but last week’s 42-25 win over Arizona State might have been its cleanest performance so far. Washington State has been a revelation, but there’s a vast talent discrepancy in this matchup. Lean: USC -13.

Texas A&M +24 at Alabama, over/under: 46. The Aggies had shown at least some semblance of offense last year ahead of their shocking 41-38 upset win over the Crimson Tide as 18.5-point underdogs. They haven’t done so this year, and an expectedly stout defense has recently and quietly played just as ineffectively.  Guess: Alabama -24.

Big Plays

Missouri +12 at Florida, over/under: 54. Perhaps the scare Missouri put into Georgia isn’t as much of a fluke as it’s being made out to be considering the Tigers have played well from an efficiency standpoint in every game except a 40-12 loss at Kansas State. Florida has been much more inconsistent. Play: Missouri +12 .

Michigan -22 at Indiana, over/under: 59. The Hoosiers are getting too much credit for miracle 3-0 start that came by a total of 19 points. A blowout should be in store against the Wolverines, which have far and away the best defense the Hoosiers have encountered. Play: Michigan -22.

Wisconsin -10 at Northwestern, over/under: 44. The Badgers are not incompetent and may have just might needed new voice to spark what’s been a disappointing season so far. Defensive coordinator, and now interim coach, Jim Leonhard is highly regarded and just might be the right guy for the job. Play: Wisconsin -10.

Kent State -5 at Miami (Ohio), over/under: 57. Fading the RedHawks came through last week, and it seems like a decent strategy to keep following until quarterback Brett Gabbert returns. Kent State is a well-coached team capable of putting up a lot of points and setting a pace Miami can’t match. Play: Kent State -5.

Western Kentucky +6.5 at UTSA, over/under: 70.5. UTSA gave up 577 passing yards to Western Kentucky last year but escaped with a 49-41 victory via a +4 turnover margin. That shouldn’t repeat, and while this year’s Hilltopper quarterback Austin Reed isn’t quite last year’s record-setting Bailey Zappe, Western Kentucky’s offense hasn’t fallen off as much as expected. Play: Western Kentucky +6.5.

Wyoming -3.5 at New Mexico, over/under: 37. These are two of the worst 15 teams in the nation by expected points added per play with Wyoming only a fraction ahead of New Mexico. They’re both run-first sides that keep the clock running, so points will be at a premium in a slow-moving game. Play: New Mexico +3.5.

UTEP +3 at Louisiana Tech, over/under: 52.5. The Bulldogs had a well-timed bye last week to recover from a number of injuries sustained during a rough start to the season. They’ve faced a difficult schedule so far, but surely have some new wrinkles to unveil in their Conference USA opener. Play: Louisiana Tech -3.

BYU +4 vs. Notre Dame at Allegiant Stadium, over/under: 52. Does one win, Notre Dame’s 45-32 breakout over North Carolina as 3-point underdogs two weeks ago, show the Irish have figured it out as this line indicates? I’m skeptical, and they face the added challenge of a traditionally disadvantageous spot of traveling East to West that might be worth a slight adjustment in the Cougars’ favor. Play: BYU +4.

Other Games

Play: Iowa +4 at Illinois

Play: Stanford +7 vs. Oregon State

Play: Maryland -3 vs. Purdue

Play: Duke -3 at Georgia Tech

Lean: Air Force -10 at Utah State

Lean: UNR -3 vs. Colorado State

Lean: Hawaii +20 at San Diego State

Lean: Southern Miss +7 at Troy

Lean: Oregon -12.5 at Arizona

Lean: Arizona State +14 vs. Washington

Lean: Tulsa -4 at Navy

Lean: Toledo -5 at Northern Illinois

Lean: Army +17 at Wake Forest

Lean: Ole Miss -18 at Vanderbilt

Lean: East Carolina +2.5 at Tulane

Lean: Ball State +9 at Central Michigan

Lean: Western Michigan -5 vs. Eastern Michigan

Lean: Rutgers +3 vs. Nebraska

Lean: Buffalo -1.5 at Bowling Green

Lean: Iowa State +2 vs. Kansas State

Lean: Georgia State -2 vs. Georgia Southern

Guess: Ohio State -25.5 at Michigan State

Guess: Florida International +5 vs. Connecticut

Guess: Oklahoma State -9.5 vs. Texas Tech

Guess: South Carolina +10.5 at Kentucky

Guess: UMass +25 at Liberty

Guess: Akron +11 at Ohio

Guess: Fresno State +7.5 at Boise State

Guess: Louisville -3 at Virginia

Guess: UNLV +6 at San Jose State

Guess: Pittsburgh -14 vs. Virginia Tech

Guess: UL Monroe +14 vs. Coastal Carolina

Guess: Houston +3 at Memphis

Guess: NC State -3.5 vs. Florida State

Guess: Middle Tennessee State +9.5 at UAB

Guess: South Florida +28 at Cincinnati

Guess: Arkansas State +10.5 vs. James Madison

Guess: Arkansas +8 at Mississippi State

Guess: Texas State +19 vs. Appalachian State

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or