Sunday Sweats: Several wagers to add to your NFL Week 10 betting card

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Nov. 12, 2022 | noon

Without a single double-digit spread in sight until Monday Night Football, NFL Week 10 looks like a fun one.

Maybe it’s the week where Sunday Sweats finally puts a big dent in its negative bottom line for the year. That’s the plan anyway as I’ll try to navigate the betting board full of close lines and injury concerns below.

Read on for this week’s Sunday Sweats that includes bets in six different categories with individual records attached. Check back tomorrow for an additional prop play in the Raiders’ gameday preview piece. The Weekly Raiders’ prop, as well as any other plays placed outside the pick’em, will be tracked in the season-long record here with the assumption of a bet to win $200.

Tasty Total (5-5, -$100): Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears under 48.5 (STN Sports)

$220 to win $200

There’s no denying the strides the Chicago offense has made over the last three games. I’m selling on it lasting long-term, though. The Bears still don’t have enough around quarterback Justin Fields to sustain the 31 points per game they’ve put up during their breakout 2-1 straight-up, 1-2 against the spread stretch. This could be a good spot for it to slow against a familiar divisional opponent playing improved defense. The Lions’ offense is also nothing to fear as far as really lighting up the scoreboard, at least outside in the cold on the slow track at Soldier Field.

Two-Team (Or Three-Team) Teaser (4-5, -$550): Denver Broncos +8.5 & Houston Texans +11 (Caesars/William Hill)

$240 to win $200

I’m ready for the Giants to hurt me again. It feels like I’m betting against them in some capacity every week in this column and coming away a loser. Here’s another chance. The Broncos crossing through the 3 and 7, off a bye-week no less, is a terrific anchor in any 6-point teaser. The difficulty comes in figuring out who to put with them. The only other side that could currently go through the both the 3 and the 7 are the 49ers, down from -7.5 to -1.5 but that seems risky against a Chargers’ side that’s slightly undervalued at the moment. So, I’ll gamble with the Texans. This should be a close game. The Giants haven’t won a single game by double digits this season, and it shouldn’t start this week.

Moneyline Parlay (3-6, -$346.50): Tampa Bay Buccaneers & Cleveland Browns +341 (STN Sports)

$100 to win $341

Both these teams are buy-ons overall, not just this week, but Stations conveniently has them at better-than-average prices with the Buccaneers at -150 against the Seahawks and the Browns+165 at the Dolphins. Cleveland’s defense has come around and played up to its potential lately, even moreso than the market is capturing. Tampa Bay’s offense hasn’t done the same but I’m keeping the faith that it’s coming. The Buccaneers aren’t moving the ball horribly; they’re just bogging down in the red zone. They're going to figure it out eventually.

Player Prop (7-11, -$730): Mike Evans over 62.5 receiving yards -113 (Boyd Sports)

$226 to win $200

Let’s wake up to a winner in Munich, Germany. As much as the Seahawks’ defense has improved over the last few weeks, it’s still mediocre at best against top receivers. They rank 29^th in the league by Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings in the category. Evans has drawn double-digit targets in each of the last three weeks as quarterback Tom Brady’s biggest security blanket. He only turned 11 targets a week ago into 40 receiving yards, but the Seahawks’ defensive backfield is a big drop-off from the Rams’ unit. He’s averaging 77 receiving yards per game, and his total should at least be in the 70s.

Player Prop (7-11, -$730): Brian Robinson Jr. anytime touchdown +220 (Boyd Sports)

$100 to win $210

I’m convinced Monday Night Football between the Eagles and Commanders is going to be a close game. And if it’s a close game, Washington is going to have a chance to finally get its run game going. Defending the run might be the Eagles’ only weakness. Antonio Gibson has been more efficient than the rookie Robinson, but the latter is getting twice the number of carries in the red zone since returning from an injury sustained in a shooting earlier in the season. Robinson has only one career NFL touchdown so far, but his chances of getting No. 2 on Monday are stronger than this line implies.

Future Finding (0-2, -$100): Oklahoma 6-to-1 to win ESPN Invitational (Caesaars/William Hill) and Ole Miss 12-to-1 to win ESPN Invitational 12-to-1 (Golden Nugget)

$200 to win $1,200 & $100 to win $1,200

With no football options standing out, I wanted to find a college basketball national championship future to include. Unfortunately, a lot of the numbers I actually bet are gone with the market looking relatively beaten into shape early in the season. So, instead, I looked at odds to win the upcoming non-conference tournaments. I’m happy I did because the numbers are way off — especially in the annual Thanksgiving weekend event in Orlando. Florida State is the consensus favorite despite arguably not being one of the top four sides in the eight-team event. Ole Miss is easily the most talented team in Florida State’s top half of the bracket. Oklahoma has a slightly tougher draw on the bottom, and has already lost to Sam Houston State this year, but Porter Moser is probably the best coach in the event. He should be able to navigate the Sooners to a couple wins, and then hopefully a championship game matchup against the Rebels.

Non-football Play (6-5, $280): Oklahoma City Thunder +7 at New York Knicks (Wynn)

$220 to win $200

The best player on the floor Sunday morning at Madison Square Garden will be on the visiting side. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been so unstoppable this year that he’s a runaway favorite to win the Most Improved Player award. It may not last, largely because the Thunder will be tempted to shut him down and tank, but Gilgeous-Alexander is at least going to keep getting opportunities for the foreseeable future. The Knicks are improved this year too, but these teams are pretty close to even as currently constructed. There’s no way the spread should be this large.

Sunday sweats year to date: 25-34, -$1,546.42

Weekend betting column year to date: 93-113-1, $2,947.08

Weekend betting column all-time: 435-444-5, $8,892.81

Previous pending future wagers: Vegas Golden Knights at 15-to-1 to win the 2023 Stanley Cup ($200 to win $3,000); TreVeyon Henderson 50-to-1 to win the Heisman Trophy ($100 to win $5,000); Patrick Mahomes 10-to-1 to win NFL MVP ($200 to win $2,000); CeeDee Lamb 20-to-1 to lead the NFL in receiving yards; South Carolina over 5.5 wins -150 ($450 to win $300); Louisville to win the ACC 40-to-1 ($50 to win $2,000); Las Vegas Raiders under 8.5 wins +140 ($200 to win $280); New Orleans Saints to win the NFC South +360 ($300 to win $1,080); Oregon State over 6 wins -130 ($390 to win $300); Philadelphia Eagles to win the NFC 14-to-1 ($100 to win $1,400); Minnesota Vikings to win the NFC North +250 ($300 to win $750); Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South at +300 (risking $300 to win $900); Los Angeles Rams NOT to win the NFC West +145 ($200 to win $290); Texas to win the Big 12 at +450 ($200 to win $900); Nick Bosa to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year at 7-to-1 ($250 to win $1,750); Indianapolis Colts to miss the playoffs at -110 ($220 to win $200); Miami Dolphins to miss the playoffs at +140 ($200 to win $280) ; Giannis Antetokounmpo to win NBA MVP at 7-to-1 ($300 to win $2,100); Minnesota Timberwolves to win Northwest Division at +150 ($200 to win $300); Minnesota Timberwolves to win Western Conference at 15-to-1 ($100 to win $1,500); Minnesota Timberwolves to win NBA Finals at 33-to-1 ($75 to win $2,475); New Orleans Pelicans to win Southwest Division at +350 ($200 to win $700); New Orleans Pelicans to win Western Conference at 24-to-1 ($50 to win $1,200); New Orleans Pelicans to win NBA Finals at 55-to-1 ($50 to win $2,750); Golden State Warriors under 53 wins ($220 to win $200); Los Angeles Clippers under 52.5 wins ($220 to win $200); Boston Celtics to win the NBA Finals at 7-to-1 ($300 to win $2,100); Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make the playoffs at -135 ($270 to win $200)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or