College football by the odds: Vegas preview and picks of every Week 7 game

By Case Keefer (contact)

Tuesday, Oct. 11, 2022 | 2 a.m.

Alabama has been favored by at least 7 points in 17 straight SEC regular-season games, dating back to a 41-24 win over Georgia laying only 6 points in 2020.

The streak of respect by the betting market is teetering but set to last another week — at least for now. The Crimson Tide opened as a 7.5-point favorite for their trip to Tennessee to take on the Volunteers in Week 7’s premier game between two undefeated opponents.

This comes despite Alabama looking vulnerable in a 24-20 win over Texas A&M that came down to the final play as 24-point favorites last week and the uncertain status of defending Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Bryce Young. Freshman Jalen Milroe filled in for Young, who’s dealing with a shoulder injury, last week and wasn’t nearly as polished in committing three turnovers.

If Young is ruled out again, look for the point spread to crash below the touchdown threshold. Bettors are typically wary of betting against Alabama, though, and largely for good reason.

Despite perennially being priced at the top of the market, the Crimson Tide haven’t posted a losing season against the spread since 2017 — the year they beat Georgia in overtime of the College Football Playoff championship game. Despite a pair of close games where they didn’t threaten to cover against Texas A&M and Texas (a 20-19 win as 21-point favorites) this year, Alabama is in good position to continue that profitable run.

They’re 4-2 against the spread overall, though the difficult part of the Crimson Tide’s schedule has arrived. The next three weeks after Tennessee consist of a matchup with Mississippi State and road trips to LSU and Ole Miss.

This is where Alabama can prove it still deserves to be priced around 2-to-1 to win the seventh title of coach Nick Saban’s tenure, and determine whether its point-spread superiority persists.

Read below for picks on Alabama at Tennessee and every other Week 7 game. Lines are the best available on the chosen side at publication time in Nevada. Picks are labeled with three separate confidence categories. The record for the season stands at 178-143-3 (37-37 on plays, 68-47-3 on leans and 73-59 on guesses) after a 31-25 (6-7 on plays, 11-9 on leans and 14-9 on guesses) performance in Week 6.

Big Games

Penn State +7 at Michigan, over/under: 51.5. Penn State is dangerous and coming off a bye, but Michigan’s diminished margin of victories since starting Big Ten play hide the dominance of the Wolverines. Even in the aforementioned sample of three conference games, Michigan is outgaining opponents by more than 1 yard play and ranks in the top 10 of expected points added per play. Play: Michigan -7.

Minnesota -6 at Illinois, over/under: 39. This is an unexpectedly huge game for the Big Ten West division race and, until the fallout of last week, looked like a fair fight. The odds should have tilted more in Minnesota’s favor after both Illinois quarterback Tommy DeVito and receiver Isaiah Williams went down with injuries in a 9-6 win over Iowa as 3.5-point favorites. Play: Minnesota -6.

Alabama -7.5 at Tennessee, over/under: 65.5. Alabama’s defense has looked surprisingly human against offenses it matches up well against; meanwhile, Tennessee’s “smashmouth spread” is one designed to give it problems. Whether Young plays or not, this spread should not be on this side of 7. Play: Tennessee +7.5.

Oklahoma State +4 at TCU, over/under: 68. Both teams stayed undefeated last week by doing exactly what they were supposed to do — the Horned Frogs edged Kansas 38-31 as 7-point favorites while the the Cowboys beat Texas Tech 41-31 as 10.5-point favorites. That’s made this matchup continue to look like an incredibly even-matched game, one where the spread shouldn’t be more than 3. Lean: Oklahoma State +4.

NC State +3 at Syracuse, over/under: 44. NC State quarterback Devin Leary hurt his shoulder late in last week’s lucky 19-17 win over Florida State as 3.5-point favorites, and may miss more time. Injuries are the biggest part of handicapping this time of year, and Leary’s is a major one. Guess: Syracuse -3.

Clemson -4 at Florida State, over/under: 51. The Seminoles are on a two-game slide the last two weeks but didn’t play all that poorly against either NC State or Wake Forest to seemingly make this a good spot. But this spread opened as high as Clemson -6.5 and might be dropping too low. Guess: Clemson -4.

Mississippi State -7 at Kentucky, over/under: 47. Here’s another quarterback injury as potential top overall NFL Draft pick Will Levis missed Kentucky’s 24-14 loss to South Carolina as 4-point favorites last week, but there’s a chance he could return to take on Mississippi State. Even if he doesn’t, Kentucky has a strong enough defense — especially against short routes in the middle of the field — to disrupt Mississippi State’s passing game and hang around on the scoreboard. Lean: Kentucky +7.

USC +3.5 at Utah, over/under: 60.5. The hook means everything here as Utah -3 looks like the fair price. It’s easy to be worried about USC up front against Utah’s rushing ability with both quarterback Cameron Rising and running back Tavion Thomas, but the Trojans have a lot of other advantages of their own. Guess: USC +3.5.

Big Plays

Miami -7 at Virginia Tech, over/under: 47. These teams have been equally disappointing, but at least one of them has a high caliber of players on the roster. There’s hope for Miami to get it together this season while Virginia Tech should solely be preparing for the future at this point. .Play: Miami -7.

Maryland -11 at Indiana, over/under: 61. Maryland outplayed Purdue in a 31-29 loss as 3-point favorites last week but was undone by ill-time mistakes. Purdue is good enough to take advantages of those miscues; Indiana is not.Play: Maryland -11.

Kent State +8 at Toledo, over/under: 62.5. Toledo has scorched a pair of MAC teams with wins and covers the last two weeks that are arguably better than Kent State in Central Michigan and Northern Illinois. The betting market might catch up eventually, but so far, it hasn’t given the Rockets enough credit. Play: Toledo -8.

Northern Illinois +2.5 at Eastern Michigan, over/under: 64. Northern Illinois rode an incredible amount of good fortune to the MAC Championship last year and is still being priced like it belongs at the top of the conference. But the luck has run out, and midway through this season, that prior should hold less weight. Play: Eastern Michigan -2.5.

James Madison -10.5 at Georgia Southern, over/under: 63.5. James Madison is a truck, having won and covered every game so far this season, but this is a good spot to finally go against the the Dukes with their first back-to-back road trip as a Football Bowl Subdivision program. Georgia Southern has also been better than expected, and getting this many points is an overreaction to two straight close losses. Play: Georgia Southern +10.5.

Rice +4 at Florida Atlantic, over/under: 56. Much like James Madison, Rice is a great story that’s covered in four straight by double digits. But the Owls from Texas are at a talent disadvantage to the Owls from Florida, and this is too big of an adjustment as the latter would have been favored by two touchdowns coming into the season. Play: Florida Atlantic -4.

Arkansas State +3.5 at Southern Miss, over/under: 55.5. Tulane and Troy held Southern Miss star running back Frank Gore Jr. relatively in check the last two weeks. Arkansas State doesn’t have the talent up front defensively to do the same. Play: Southern Miss -3.5.

Other Games

Play: Tulane -11.5 at South Florida

Play: Baylor -3.5 at West Virginia

Lean: Stanford +17 at Notre Dame

Lean: South Alabama -17 vs. UL Monroe

Lean: Charlotte +23.5 at UAB

Lean: Western Kentucky -7.5 at Middle Tennessee

Lean: Nebraska +14 at Purdue

Lean: Arkansas +2.5 at BYU

Lean: Old Dominion +12.5 at Coastal Carolina

Lean: Western Michigan pick’em vs. Ohio

Lean: Central Michigan -12.5 at Akron

Lean: Louisiana +9 at Marshall

Lean: Navy +13.5 at SMU

Lean: Kansas +8 at Oklahoma

Lean: UCF -24 vs. Temple

Lean: UConn +9 at Ball State

Lean: Colorado State +11.5 vs. Utah State

Guess: Memphis +5 at East Carolina

Guess: Vanderbilt +39 at Georgia

Guess: Texas State +16 at Troy

Guess: Michigan State +7 vs. Wisconsin

Guess: Hawaii +6 vs. Nevada

Guess: Iowa State +16.5 at Texas

Guess: Miami (Ohio) -6.5 at Bowling Green

Guess: Colorado +16 vs. California

Guess: Auburn +16 at Ole Miss

Guess: Air Force -8.5 at UNLV

Guess: Duke +6.5 vs. North Carolina

Guess: Louisiana Tech +6.5 at North Texas

Guess: Florida +2.5 vs. LSU

Guess: Arizona +15.5 at Washington

Guess: Oregon State -3 vs. Washington State

Guess: UMass +17 vs. Buffalo

Guess: Florida International +32 vs. UTSA

Guess: Fresno State +6.5 vs. San Jose State

Guess: New Mexico State +26.5 vs. New Mexico

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or