Sunday Sweats: Six wagers to add to your NFL Week 5 betting card

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Oct. 8, 2022 | 10 a.m.

Futures might be the only thing that can save me from the past.

Based on the start to the season alone, Sunday Sweats looks at great risk of suffering its first losing season. I’m seven wins below .500 through four weeks in this column for a loss of more than $1,300 — full accounting is available at the bottom of the page — but the outlook isn’t as bleak as it sounds.

Most of the football future positions placed here — all of which are also listed at the bottom of the page — now have equity. The betting market has largely moved in my direction based on early returns.

There’s still a long way to go, but if I can methodically cut into the losses as the season progresses, a few rewards in the form of big payouts could be waiting at the end of the year. I’ll keep looking for more such opportunities too.

Read below for another futures play this week in addition to bets in the five other weekly categories. Check back Monday for an additional prop bet in the Raiders’ gameday preview piece. The weekly Raiders’ play, as well as any other plays placed outside the pick’em, will be tracked in the season-long record here with the assumption of a bet to win $200.

Tasty Total (2-3, -$260): San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers over 39 (STN Sports)

$240 to win $200

Unders have cruised all across the league to start the year, and these two teams have greatly contributed to the cause. Seven of their combined eight games have gone under, but only one had a lower total than today’s (a Week 1 rain-soaked 19-10 49ers’ loss to the Bears). This shouldn’t be a shootout by any means, but the total may have dropped a bit too low. San Francisco’s offense should theoretically be getting better as Jimmy Garoppolo settles in to take over from the green Trey Lance. Carolina’s offense, um, can’t be much worse at least. This game should be played in the low 40s.

Two-Team (Or Three-Team) Teaser (2-2, -$150): Minnesota Vikings -0.5 & Cleveland Browns +8.5 at -120 (Caesars/William Hill)

$240 to win $200

The Browns have been better than their 2-2 record — the two losses have come by combined four points — and should be a handful for the Chargers. I wouldn’t bet the current spread of +2.5, but taking Cleveland through the 3 and 7 makes it a clear teaser option. Minnesota hosting Chicago, meanwhile, might quietly be the most lopsided game of Week 5. There are a couple bigger favorites than the Vikings -7.5 against the Bears, but there arguably shouldn’t be. The Vikings’ line looks a point or two short, and could rise before kickoff. That makes this right time to lock in a teaser where they, like the Browns, cross both the 3 and 7.

Moneyline Parlay (1-3, -$139): New Orleans Saints & Los Angeles Rams at +110 (Caesars/William Hill)

$200 to win $220

Nothing too special in this category this week: I’m just pairing two underpriced favorites for a slight plus-money payout. The Rams at -230 hosting the Cowboys is the best moneyline favorite as I think the time has come to sell high on the latter. This price would have been significantly higher coming into the season with Cooper Rush at quarterback for Dallas. Positive adjustment may have similarly gone too far with the Seahawks, which exploded for 555 yards last week in a win at Detroit. The New Orleans defense is not going to allow that type of production from Seattle quarterback Geno Smith.

Player Prop (2-5, -$508): Mark Andrews anytime touchdown scorer +140 (Boyd Sports)

$150 to win $210

The Ravens’ tight end is coming off a slow Week 4 as had only two receptions for 15 yards in a 23-20 loss to the Bills. That can only be a benefit here, as the Ravens could stress getting their star tight end more involved in the offense. Even if they don’t, this price still offer value if Andrews just gets his usual flow of targets. He’s a big part of Baltimore’s red zone offense and has scored five career touchdowns against rival Cincinnati. This price should be more around a pick’em heading into Sunday Night Football’s AFC West showdown.

Future Finding (0-1, -$50): Nick Bosa to win Defensive Player of the Year at 7-to-1 (BetMGM)

$250 to win $1,750

I changed my mind after writing about the Defensive Player of the Year race earlier this week. Dallas’ Micah Parson is a contender, but I’m not so sure he should be the favorite at all right now. The younger Bosa brother’s numbers blow Parsons’ stats away so far. Bosa is leading the NFL with six sacks, but has more separation with 30 total pressures. That’s an insane rate through four weeks. And he could build on it against two offensive lines that have struggled in pass protection the next two weeks in Carolina and Atlanta. That makes it a nice buy point right now. Bosa is +450 or 5-to-1 at most sports books, which is slightly more reasonable. But BetMGM reopened at 7-to-1, which is definitely too high.

Non-football Play (2-2, -$50): Tyler Reddick to win Bank of America Roval 400 at 6-to-1 (Caesars/William Hill)

$50 to win $300

Let’s take a shot at Sunday’s NASCAR playoff race at Charlotte Motor Speedway’s road course. Full disclosure, I haven’t been keeping up and handicapping motor sports on a weekly basis since the return of football. But this outright line feels a bit too high to me based on what’s happened this season. Reddick has emerged as the second-best road racer in the Cup series, behind Chase Elliott. He’s also stayed fast throughout the playoffs, including a win two weeks ago in Texas. He checks all the boxes to be in contention here, so much so that this number should go off the board lower.

Sunday Sweats year to date: 9-16, -$1,357

Weekend betting column year to date: 77-94-1, $3,591.50

Weekend betting column all-time: 419-424-5, $9,527.93

Previous pending future wagers: Philadelphia Union 16-to-1 to win MLS Cup ($125 to win $2,000); Seattle Mariners +650 to win AL West ($100 to win $650); Vegas Golden Knights at 15-to-1 to win the 2023 Stanley Cup ($200 to win $3,000); TreVeyon Henderson 50-to-1 to win the Heisman Trophy ($100 to win $5,000); Patrick Mahomes to win NFL MVP ($200 to win $2,000); CeeDee Lamb 20-to-1 to lead the NFL in receiving yards; South Carolina over 5.5 wins -150 ($450 to win $300); Louisville to win the ACC 40-to-1 ($50 to win $2,000); Las Vegas Raiders under 8.5 wins +140 ($200 to win $280); New Orleans Saints to win the NFC South +360 ($300 to win $1,080); Oregon State over 6 wins -130 ($390 to win $300); Philadelphia Eagles to win the NFC 14-to-1 ($100 to win $1,400); Minnesota Vikings to win the NFC North +250 ($300 to win $750); Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South at +300 (risking $300 to win $900); Los Angeles Rams NOT to win the NFC West +145 ($200 to win $290); Texas to win the Big 12 at +450 ($200 to win $900)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or