College football by the odds: Vegas preview and picks of every Week 2 game

By Case Keefer (contact)

Tuesday, Sept. 6, 2022 | 2 a.m.

Football-betting masses showed up in town over the holiday weekend hoping for a show and some profit, and they departed securing at least one of the two.

No one possibly left Las Vegas without giving the action they watched on high-definition screens up and down the Strip and downtown less than five stars. From Thursday evening’s kickoff of the Backyard Brawl where Pittsburgh outlasted West Virginia to Sunday night’s stunning conclusion to lead Florida State over LSU without overtime, college football delivered in every way.

That included high drama, wild action and betting swings of millions of dollars.

Sports books have returned to their place as the liveliest part of casinos at least until late-night, and with the NFL kicking into gear this week, it’s going to be a while before they fall from that perch.

Talking Points wants to help maximize this special stretch of the calendar and got off to a decent start in the first college football slate of the year with a 24-22 against the spread record (5-4 on plays, 10-7 on leans and 9-11 on guesses) picking every Football Bowl Subdivision game. That brings the season total to 27-26 (5-5 on plays, 13-8 on leans, 9-13 on guesses).

It’s going to be difficult for the Week 2 games to live up to the standard set so far, but we should be able to do better from a moneymaking perspective.

Read below for picks on every Week 2 game. Lines are the best available on the chosen side at publication time in Nevada. Picks are labeled with three separate confidence categories.

Big Games

Alabama -20.5 at Texas, over/under: 61.5. Going on the road to Austin, Texas, is a bit different situation than the neutral-site contests Alabama tends to notoriously dominate in Power Five non-conference games. The level of respect Alabama coach Nick Saban has expressed for his recent assistant and now Texas coach Steve Sarkisian also means he’s unlikely to run up the score, potentially leaving room for a backdoor cover. Lean: Texas +20.5.

South Carolina +8.5 at Arkansas, over/under: 53. South Carolina kept it vanilla in a 35-14 Week 1 win over Georgia State as 12-point favorites, presumably saving its best for Saturday’s SEC opener. Arkansas had no such luxury in a 31-24 win over Cincinnati as 6.5-point favorites, a game where it was outgained on a per-play basis and saw some fortunate breaks go in its favor to never trail. Play: South Carolina +8.5.

Tennessee -7 at Pittsburgh, over/under: 54. Pittsburgh is on a decline while Tennessee is on an ascent. That may sound too simplistic, but it’s the truth and this might be the last chance to put it into action before the market fully catches up. Lean: Tennessee -7.

Iowa State +4 at Iowa, over/under: 41.5. Iowa has owned this series with six straight victories, but that’s not predictive going forward. Iowa State has been the more efficient team in those matchups since the arrival of coach Matt Campbell six years ago and it’s only a matter of time until a breakthrough. Play: Iowa State +4.

Kentucky +5.5 at Florida, over/under: 51. Don’t let Florida’s 29-26 upset victory over Utah last week erase the fact that new coach Billy Napier has pleaded patience in his first year as he implements his new systems. Kentucky needs no such waiting period as this year’s Wildcats are arguably the best team Mark Stoops has fielded and got a soft opening last week in a 37-13 win over Miami (Ohio) as opposed to Florida’s taxing affair. Play: Kentucky +5.5.

Baylor +3.5 at BYU, over/under: 53.5. This is far from the same Baylor team that won the Big 12 last year as the Bears had major turnover on offense. Traveling to Provo, Utah, for a true road game in elevation also gives a major homefield edge to BYU, which do return the same team from last year as the national leaders in returning production. Play: BYU -3.5.

Oregon State pick’em at Fresno State, over/under: 68.5. Saturday’s second-to-last game to kick off — Mississippi State at Arizona is the final at 8 p.m. — looks like the best matchup on paper. It’s dead-even but Oregon State has a continuity edge with coach Jonathan Smith running back the same offense that flew to end last season as opposed to Jeff Tedford returning to the Fresno State sidelines. Guess: Oregon State pick’em.

Big Plays

Missouri +9 at Kansas State, over/under: 54.5. These teams are evenly matched on paper, yet far more hype seems to envelope the Wildcats. An offensively questionable debut where new quarterback Adrian Martinez threw for only 53 yards on 11-for-15 passing in a 34-0 win over South Dakota hasn’t slowed the acclaim as much as it should have. Play: Missouri +9.

UNLV +13 at California, over/under: 50.5. I’m sticking to a prediction I made in January that the Scarlet and Gray would win this game outright, but it’s not just stubbornness. Cal has issues all over its roster and has seen recruiting fall off to where its overall talent level isn’t much different than UNLV’s. Play: UNLV +13.

Virginia +5 at Illinois, over/under: 54. Virginia’s 34-17 victory over Football Championship Subdivision’s as 21-point favorites last week was more impressive than it looked considering the Cavaliers overcame a -2 turnover margin and were virtually unstoppable on offense. Quarterback Brennan Armstrong gives them a big advantage over the Illini with a legitimate passing attack. Play: Virginia +5.

UAB -6 at Liberty, over/under: 52.5. The Flames were already on my list of teams to fade coming into the season, and then they lost quarterback Charlie Brewer early in last week’s 29-27 four-overtime loss to Southern Miss as 3.5-point favorites. Liberty’s passing game couldn’t get anything going, which will be a bigger problem against a tough opponent like UAB. Play: UAB -6.

Massachusetts +28 at Toledo, over/under: 53. With all the Rockets return, especially on defense and in the skill positions, they may quietly be one of the best Group of Five conference teams this season. With all the Minutemen lost — they’re second-to-last in the nation in returning production — they may not-so-quietly be the worst FBS team. Play: Toledo -28.

San Jose State +22.5 at Auburn, over/under: 52. The Tigers’ market perception, if not power rating, got hammered down all summer amid organizational discord in the athletic department. That’s going to play no role here considering the gap between Auburn and San Jose State, which was extremely lucky to eke out a 21-17 win over Portland State last week in a game where it was thoroughly outplayed. Play: Auburn -22.5.

USC -8.5 at Stanford, over/under: 65.5. This opened at a fairer USC -12 price before immediately getting bet down in yet another sign of the skepticism around the Trojans. I don’t buy it and think USC’s talent is too great to ignore. As if it didn’t have enough advantages here, USC also saw a similar pro-style offense to Stanford’s in last week’s 66-14 win over Rice as 31.5-point favorites. Play: USC -8.5.

Mississippi State -10 at Arizona, over/under: 61.5. Imagine going from defending one of the nation’s most helpless passing attacks one week to facing one of the most efficient the next week. That’s the culture shock that awaits the Wildcats, as they handled San Diego State well in a 38-20 win as 6-point favorites but Mississippi State under coach Mike Leach and quarterback Will Rogers provide a different level of challenge. Play: Mississippi State -10.

Other Games

Play: Tulsa -6 vs. Northern Illinois

Play: Penn State -24 vs. Ohio

Play: Virginia Tech -2.5 vs. Boston College

Lean: Colorado State -7.5 vs. Middle Tennessee State

Lean: Georgia Southern +22.5 at Nebraska

Lean: Florida International +13.5 at Texas State

Lean: Southern Miss +26.5 at Miami

Lean: Northwestern -9.5 vs. Duke

Lean: Texas Tech -2.5 vs. Houston

Lean: East Carolina -12.5 vs. Old Dominion

Lean: Louisville +6.5 at UCF

Lean: New Mexico State +14 at UTEP

Lean: North Carolina -7 at Georgia State

Lean: Louisiana-Lafayette -10.5 vs. Eastern Michigan

Lean: UConn +23 vs. Syracuse

Guess: Marshall +20 at Notre Dame

Guess: West Virginia -12.5 vs. Kansas

Guess: Oklahoma State -11 vs. Arizona State

Guess: Ohio State -43 vs. Arkansas State

Guess: Colorado +17.5 at Air Force

Guess: Michigan State -34.5 vs. Akron

Guess: Boise State -16.5 at New Mexico

Guess: Vanderbilt +9 vs. Wake Forest

Guess: Navy +6.5 vs. Memphis

Guess: Washington State +17 at Wisconsin

Guess: Central Michigan -4.5 vs. South Alabama

Guess: UTSA -1.5 at Army

Guess: Ball State +6.5 vs. Western Michigan

Guess: Texas A&M -17 vs. Appalachian State

Guess: Oklahoma -32 vs. Kent State

Guess: Hawaii +52 at Michigan

Guess: Charlotte +28 vs. Maryland

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or